Democratic Party voters are changing the way they cast their ballots while turning out in huge numbers ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, reacting to President Donald Trump’s threats against voting by mail and moving past habits formed during the coronavirus pandemic.
Among Democrats, mail voting is down and early in-person voting is up, a notable shift from other post-COVID elections.
“It is clear that Democrats are voting more in person and less by mail,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic political strategist who tracks the early vote. “We’re seeing new voting habits emerge.”
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 forced voters to avoid shared spaces, leading to a massive increase in mail voting. But Trump polarized mail voting by lying about its safety during the 2020 election and in the election’s aftermath, when he tried to overturn his loss. Democrats continued to vote by mail heavily in subsequent elections while Republicans invested heavily on turning out their voters to cast ballots early and in-person.
But now Democrats are turning out early in-person at record numbers for a midterm election, surpassing or matching Republicans in key states. This is not necessarily predictive of how elections will ultimately turn out — most states still have multiple days of early voting left, voters do not always vote for their party’s candidate and a surge in Election Day turnout can offset early voting advantages.
In Florida, strong Democratic early in-person turnout has pushed Republicans’ advantage to under 8 points — down from the near 25-point advantage they held in 2022 and 2024. In Texas, where mail voting is more limited, early voting is tracking to be 12 points more Democratic than in 2024.
Further west in Nevada, where Democrats are trying to knock off incumbent GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo, Democrats lead the early in-person voting in Clark County, the home of Las Vegas, after Republicans led in 2022 and in the total early vote statewide. “[T]he race is over if these numbers stand up,” the eminent Nevada journalist Jon Ralston wrote on Wednesday.
Democratic early in-person turnout combined with mail voting in New Jersey and Virginia is leaning even further in the party’s direction than the 2025 gubernatorial races where Democrats romped to victory. The party is targeting at least two House seats in New Jersey and three in Virginia.
“We’re seeing very strong in-person early vote turnout across Virginia right now in some of our blue areas and in some of our swing congressional districts,” said Virginia state Sen. Jeremy McPike, a Democrat. “We’re breaking some records in the in-person turnout.”
It isn’t immediately clear what sparked this change to early in-person voting, but there are a number of reasons that, combined, all make sense.
First, Trump’s failed effort to interfere with mail voting has clearly spooked a number of Democratic voters who felt that sending a ballot through the mail would be too dangerous. This is a concern that Democratic candidates and get-out-the-vote organizations have heard repeatedly on the ground.
“I have heard some concerns from Democratic voters who receive their votes by mail about their trust in the post office,” McPike said.
Dozens of voters have voiced similar concerns at events hosted by Swing Left, a progressive group that is helping to turn out Democratic voters, including mentioning “potential Trump shenanigans” or Republicans interfering with their ballot as reasons why they had changed how they cast their ballot this year.
“We’re hearing continued interest in early voting, even as some voters change how they plan to cast their early ballots — for example, choosing to vote early in-person or drop their mail ballots at courthouses rather than in mailboxes,” Yasmin Radjy, the group’s executive director, told HuffPost in a statement. “We continue to encourage early voting whenever possible.”
Second, Democrats are actively encouraging voters to cast their ballots early in-person both to evade any efforts by the Trump administration to undermine the mail vote or to disrupt voting on Election Day and to turn out strong partisans early so that the party’s turnout machine can focus on irregular voters on Election Day.
“What we’re doing down here in Bexar County in San Antonio, we’re asking people to go vote in person,” said Texas state Sen. Jose Menendez, a Democrat.
“Far more people are trying to vote early to avoid any kind of snafus on Election Day,” said Texas state Sen. Nathan Johnson, who is also the Democratic candidate for Texas attorney general.
In North Carolina, the state Democratic Party is urging voters to cast their ballots early in-person in part due to late changes to the mail voting process instituted by the GOP-controlled Board of Elections that have led to a significant rise in rejected ballots.
“As the Republican State Board of Elections tries to make it harder for North Carolinians to vote by mail, we’re encouraging folks to get out and vote early and in person,” North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton told HuffPost in a statement.
Despite the effort to make it harder to vote by mail, Democratic turnout is up in North Carolina as voters shifted to early in-person voting.
“Mail voting is down in North Carolina even as turnout is up,” said Chris Shenton, senior counsel for the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, a nonprofit that advocates for voting rights. “You are seeing a significant shift away from mail voting in the state.”
A third reason why Democrats are turning out early in huge numbers to vote is simply that they are enthusiastic about voting out Republicans. Democrats are 10 points more likely to say they are enthusiastic about voting compared to Republicans, according to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
The final reason why Democrats are either beating or matching Republicans in the early in-person vote is that in a lot of states, Republicans are simply not turning out to vote at the same rate. In North Carolina, Republican turnout is down 5% from 2022 even though statewide early voting turnout is up by 38%. And in states like Kansas, Georgia and Florida, the Republican share of the electorate has measurably fallen from 2022 and 2024.
While early voting is not necessarily predictive of election results, the turnout increase by Democrats and the lower turnout by Republicans “should be very encouraging for Democrats,” Rosenberg said.
One of the reasons why is that key demographic groups that tilt to Democrats are turning out early in big numbers. Early voting by Black, Latino and young voters is up in key states like Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.
“We are seeing elevated Black turnout across the South,” Shenton said. “That is true in Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee and especially true in Louisiana and South Carolina. In all of those states, Black turnout is meaningfully elevated compared to 2022 as a share of the electorate, thus far.”
Black voters are motivated by the same concerns about rising costs as other voters, but also uniquely driven to turn out by the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais to gut the Voting Rights Act. That decision spurred white Southern Republicans to begin eliminating congressional seats that elect Black Democrats.
“People have an understanding that they were targeted and that their representation has been put on the chopping block and they are responding to that,” Shenton said.
In Virginia, districts with higher Black populations are seeing the biggest increases in early voter turnout. Black voters make up one-third of early votes in Louisiana, the highest ever for a non-presidential election year. Similar increases are being seen in North Carolina and Georgia.
Latinos in Texas have surged past their share of the electorate in both 2022 and 2024 by turning out in huge numbers. While this group voted more Republican in 2024 than in previous elections, polling shows Latinos turning hard against Trump after he pursued a vicious mass deportation program while also enacting policies that drove up the cost of living.
All of this bodes well for Democrats if they can keep up their turnout operation through Election Day. The shift to early in-person voting could also help them afterwards when Trump and Republicans attempt to claim any loss was due to fraud.
A huge factor in Trump’s election fraud lies has been the Blue Shift that occurs when mail ballots are counted after the polls close. Since mail ballots tilt heavily to Democrats, votes for Republicans are often counted early, creating a perception that they are leading. When Democratic mail ballots are counted, the vote shifts in Democrats’ favor. Trump has claimed, falsely, that this is evidence of fraud.
But a trend toward early in-person voting is likely to create a smaller Blue Shift, although still noticeable, on election night. That could act as a wet blanket for Trump’s inevitable lies.