'U.S.-Iran tango' enters new era after end of sanctions

The flurry of recentdevelopments surrounding Iran and the U.S., culminating with the lifting of economic sanctions on the would-be nuclear power, can be seen as a new step in an evolving relationship.

But Tehran's new opening to the West, especially on the economic front, has alsosparkedfears that the Middle East's dominant Shiaregime will be better positionedto take a more aggressive role inthe region.

"There areso many moving parts to this Iranian-U.S. tango that it's really difficult to predict ahead, never mind a year, but a couple weeks ahead," saysAlexVatanka,a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, who specializes in Iran politics.

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Still, Vatankasaid that when looking at these most recentdevelopmentsthe most significant achievement is the new channel of communication that looks to have been forged between the two old enemies.

"The headline is that, after 37 years of really not talking, you have now diplomatic channels open to Washington and Tehran, to pick up the phone and call one another," he said."I don't care what people say. That's big.

"It may not be a pleasant phone call,but the fact that they'rehaving thatphone callrepresentsprogress."

More businesslike

That progress was evident following the detainment of 10 American sailors who were capturedbyIran's Revolutionary Guard after their two small boats drifted into Iranian territorial waters last week.

A numberof calls weremade by U.S. Secretary of State JohnKerryto his counterpart, Iranian Foreign MinisterMohammadJavadZarif, who have developed a strong rapport andwere able tosecure the quick release of the sailors.

"Thatstuff is new. It's not necessarily a game changer. It doesn't mean there willbe an Iranian embassy in Washingtonor anAmericanembassy in Tehrananytime soon, but it' is significant," saidVatanka.

The timing of that incident was diplomatically problematic as itcame on the heels of theInternationalAtomic Energy Agency'scertificationthat Iran had met all its commitments under the landmark deal with the international group negotiating a stopto Iran's nuclear ambitions.

As a result of that certification, U.S. President Barack Obamaissuedan executive order removing the majority of the economic sanctions against Iran.With the E.U following suit,Iranwill now haveaccess to $100 billion in frozen assets, which are needed to boost its ailing economy.

Meanwhile, Iranfreed four Americans includingWashington Post reporter JasonRezaian, who wereswapped for seven IraniansinU.S. jails for violating the sanctions. Other Iranians were pardoned by Obama, and arrest notices for more Iranians were lifted.

Critics oppose lifting sanctions

The lifting of sanctions was immediately opposed by Obama's critics who have been against the nuclear deal from the beginning.

Removing the sanctions, they argue, removesany leverage the U.S. and its allies haveover Iran to thwart its military ambitions in the region.

"Now armed with an initial windfall of more than $100 billion, Iran will have vast new resources to continue sponsoring terrorism, threatening its neighbours, and funding its nuclear and missile programs," saidRepublican TennesseSenator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, another Republican,also slammed the new arrangements, saying the Obama administration islifting economic sanctions "on the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism."

"A bipartisan majority in the House voted to reject this deal in the first place, and we will continue to do everything possible to prevent a nuclear Iran," Ryan said.

On the other hand,Reva Bhalla, vice-president of global analysis at Stratfor and an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, said it makes a lot of strategic sense forthe U.S. to move ahead with the deal and the lifting of sanctions, as there are anumber of other foreign policy challenges to be dealt with as well.

"The U.S. cannotaffordto maintain a hostile relationshipwith the Iraniansand have thatthreat ofmilitaryconflict in the PersianGulf hanging over its head when it needs to be ableto respond and preemptivelywork toward counter-balancing otheradversaries inthe world."

There are legitimateconcernsabout how strong is the oversightofIran's continuednuclear activity, she said. AndKerryhimself admitted this week that some of the releasedfunds could end up with terrorist organizations.

Yet the fear that the lifting of sanctionswill only amplify Iranianaggression in theregion through itsproxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen is "a little bit overblown," she says.

"The biggerarea Iran needs to channel investmentsis inits energy sector," she said. "Iran badly needs that investment to revive those [oil] fields."

'An ailing economy'

Vatankaalso feels thatthe new money flowing to Iran will be diverted mostly to basic needs."The Iranianshave anailingeconomythat they need to lookafterfirst, becauseiftheydon'ttheycouldhave social upheaval at home," he says.

"The simple truth is Iranfightsin theregion relatively onthe cheap. They don't need big bucks to do what they'redoing in Syria for Assad, or supporting Hezbollahin Lebanon. So I don't think this money necessarily will result in Assad tomorrow getting billions of dollars in Iranian money."

Still, Iran remains a dangerous actor in a volatile area of the world, and its ruling system is steeped in antagonismtoward the U.S.,Suzanne Maloney of the BrookingsInstitute wrote in a recent op-ed for The New York Times.

"The new-found progress between Washington and Tehran will not immediately or inevitably alter the ideology and strategic interests that drive such Iranian behaviour," Maloney wrote.

"However, the nuclear deal offers only the most recent evidence of Iran's capacity for pragmatic policymaking based on a rational cost-benefit assessment. Over time, further bilateral engagement may reinforce these inclinations within Iran."