Turkey vs. the Netherlands: Why are they fighting?

Turkey versus the Netherlands is a grudge match no one saw coming.

The Turkish government is lobbing accusations of fascismand threatening to take the Dutch to the European Court of Human Rights after Turkish ministers were told this weekend thatthey couldn't hold a rallyforexpatson Dutch soil.

The Dutch government said it refused to be bullied by Turkey, but responded with more than words.Riot police, dogs and water cannons confronted protesters this weekend, taking tensions to an even higher level.

How did we get here?

Dutch citizens of Turkish descent are at the centre of the crisis.

In April, they're eligible to vote in a referendum in Turkey that willdecide whether PresidentRecepTayyipErdoganwill be able to change his country's constitution and become its sole leader.

Erdogan'sministers have beenplanning rallies all over Europe to court theexpatvote, which accounts for nearly threemillion people.

Dutch authorities said they were concernedabout safety at the events.Last week, the German governmenttold Turkish ministers to stay away from similar gatheringsin Germany, buteventually softened its position.

Some of therallies in the Netherlandswere planned for this weekend, just days before a much-anticipated nationalelectionthere, wherethe far-right movement is gaining steam. Dutch voters will be castingballots onWednesday.

Dutch Prime Minister MarkRuttesaid the Turkish ministerscould not come to campaign in his country. Turkey's foreign minister doubled down, essentially daring the Dutch government to stop him.

And so the Dutch did. On Saturday, they pulled the landing permission for the foreign minister's flight.They also physically blocked Turkish family ministerFatmaBetulSayanKaya,who drove into the Netherlands, from going to the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam and sent her back to Turkey.

That's when the protests began and the police cracked down.

Erdogansaid the response proves "Nazism is alive in the West"and that the Netherlands would "pay the price" for harming relations between the two countries.

What else is at play here?

Both sides have a lot to gain and lose in this dispute.

• Turkey may hit Netherlands with sanctions as 'Nazi' row escalates
• Turkey-Dutch relations strained after Turkish minister's visit banned

Conflict with the West could helpErdogan'scampaign to expand his presidential powers. Turkey is a Muslim country and if Turks at home and abroad feel ostracized and mistreated, they have more reason to vote yes in areferendumfor a leader who says he's looking out for their best interests.

That said, Turkey's own election law forbids campaigning abroad. As well, many in the West findErdogan'saccusations of fascism ironicin light of Turkey's recent reputation for jailing journalists and firing academics.

In an op-edfor the Washington Post, Turkish columnist Asli AydintasbasasksEurope, "How about pushing for a return to democracy in Turkey instead of erecting barriers to keep all Turks out?"

"Europeans have, until recently, been quiet about the rise of illiberalism and ethno-nationalism in Turkey in exchange for Erdogan stemming the refugee flow into Europe and now Europeans are stuck with a neighbour they despise."

Meanwhile, the rise of Dutch far-right politician GeertWildershas pushed the current prime minister, MarkRutte, into a corner. Wildersis proof of the extent to whichIslamophobiahastaken hold in the Netherlands and across Europe. Hehas campaigned, among other things, on a promiseof banning Muslims from the Netherlands, and isdoing well in the polls.

Wilders is using the crisis to fuel his message,droppingvenom on social media recently, essentially telling the nearly 400,000people of Turkish descentin the Netherlands to go back to Turkey.

What next?

Don't expect the crisis to die down in the next few days particularly in Turkey. Any conflict with the West is powerful fuel forErdogan'scampaign, just as anti-immigrant sentiment is for populist politiciansin Europe.

But there is a lot on the line. Not only for Turks who call the Netherlands home, but for Turkey's economy.

Dutch foreign investment in Turkey is higher than any other country about $20billion US from 2005 to 2015, according to Turkey's economy ministry. Beyond the 400 years of diplomatic ties between the two countries, there are also billions of dollars in imports and exports at stake. In 2016, trade between the two countries totalled $6.6 billion.

• Turkey vows retaliation after Netherlands bars pro-Erdogan ministers

European leaders have been doing a delicate dance withErdogan'sgovernmentbecause Turkey agreed to keep roughlythree million refugees, the majority from the Syrian conflict.Turkey says it is still waiting for the EU to fulfil its promiseof billions of dollars in financial support.

The rhetoric may cool down after the April16referendum.

But right now, the crisis is still very hot.Turkey is pushing for an apology,calling the Dutch actions a violation of diplomatic conventions, and is threatening sanctions.