Trump and Xi: Little in common besides the need to improve relations

The two men have very little in common.

Donald Trump, the flamboyantbusiness tycoon and former reality showhost, brash and belligerent, new to politics and to the U.S. presidency.

His golf club guest? Xi Jinping, a lifelong politician and bureaucrat whoworked his way up from the local to the national stage, and seems set torule China for many years to come. Modest and measured in public butshrewd and determined behind the scenes, where he exercises his power aspresident of China and leader of the Communist Party virtuallyunchallenged.

The key point is to have a personal connection. So they can pickup the phone when necessary and come up with solutions and keep a crisisfrom affecting this very complex relationship.- ZhaoHai,National Strategy Institute

Xi has never been seen playing golf.

And it doesn't seem like he'll be taking it up, even as he meets Trump atthe U.S. president's Florida club, Mar-a-Lago, on Thursday.

Xi and the Chinese delegationwill be staying at another resort nearby.

Nonetheless,Zhao Hai,an analyst with China's National Strategy Institute, says the meeting is "a good sign."

"The key point is to have a personal connection," he said. "So they can pickup the phone when necessary and come up with solutions and keep a crisisfrom affecting this very complex relationship."

Rocky start

That relationship had a rocky and confusing start.

Theoutspoken Communist Party tabloid Global Times called Trump"ignorant as a child in foreign policy."

He began his presidency by cozying up to Taiwan and questioning the "one China"policy a fundamental understanding of its borders andsovereignty that the U.S. has accepted for four decades. It was an outrageous move,as far as Beijing is concerned.

He accused China of playing dirty with trade, deliberately devaluing itscurrency, stealing American jobs anddumping products like steel into the United States at artificially low prices.

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Trump's Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, even threatened to use militaryforce to keep China away from islands it claims in the South China Sea.

And then, just as quickly, Trump backtracked. Gone was the threat ofmilitary force in the South China Sea. The "one China"policy was accepted.

In a visit to Beijing, Tillerson even repeated China's own words in hispromise to improve relations: a vow of "non-conflict, non-confrontation,mutual respect, and win-win co-operation."His host, Xi, smiled andnodded.

Plans to challenge China on trade issues remain. But executive orders examining possible action and tweets sent out by Trump last week are vague. And none of Trump's bigthreats to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, for instance are being seriously considered.

The relationship has also been peppered with impulsive, undiplomatictirades from Trump, in his typical 140-character bursts.

In one, he condemned China for "taking massive amounts of money andwealth" from the U.S.but refusing to help solve the military crisis with NorthKorea. "Nice!" he concludessarcastically.

Indeed, North Korea is likely to be the most pressing issue when Trump andXi get together.

Since the 1990s, North Korea's Kim dynasty has been pressing ahead withplans to acquire nuclear weapons, and to develop an intercontinentalballistic missile with which it can hit the United States. Several U.S. presidents have tried negotiating, pressuring and threatening Pyongyang toconvince it to abandon the weapons program, to no avail.

After two powerful nuclear explosions last yearand dozens of tests of missiles and components, it is closer than ever to its goal.

The United Nations Security Council has imposed strict economic sanctionsand limits on technology transfers to North Korea, but there are significantloopholes.

And many of them are under Beijing's nose: banks (including state-ownedinstitutions) that help money transfers for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un;shell companies that move goods in and out;port visits by North Korea-bound ships.

China in an 'awkward situation'

China could close the holes, and it is in a unique position to try to convinceKim to abandon his nuclear and missile program, based on ideological andhistorical connections though its influence is wearing thin, and so is itspatience.

Still, Beijing has its own reasons for treading lightly.

It fears that if Kim is forced into a humiliating retreat, his regime could beso weakened, it could collapse.

"China is in a very awkward situation." says Cheng Xiaohe, professor of international studies at Beijing's People's University. "It wants and needspeace and stability on the Korean peninsula. It is quite afraid of pushing toohard and causing massive chaos and a refugee crisis on its borders."

So for his part, Xi will be pressing Trump to try to resolve the issuepeacefully, through negotiations with Kim. Chinese Foreign MinisterWang Yi has also suggested the U.S. could show good faith by reducing itsmilitary presence in South Korea something Pyongyang sees as a constantthreat of invasion.

Washington has already rejected both approaches. It even refuses to rule outa pre-emptive military attack on Kim's facilities.

All of that hasled to deep suspicion between China and the U.S. of each other's motives, says Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser on northeast Asia forthe International Crisis Group think-tank.

"North Korea could have been a subject on which China and the U.S. could have worked together tobuild confidence and trust between each other, but instead it's become asource of deeper mistrust," he said.

And it is just fuelling a feeling in Beijing that the U.S. is still trying to assertmilitary dominance in the region, says Zhao, the analyst.

"Since the Second World War, U.S. strategy has been to contain China," hesaid. "And some in the U.S. want to continue with that. A preparation formilitary-to-military confrontation. Now the two countries are sointerconnected, it is unthinkable for the two to go into conflict. So it iscritical for them to accommodate this new era."

Even if successful, this week's golf club summit will just be a small start.