Theatres shunning The Interview are likely buckling to 'an empty threat'

A hacker group possiblylinked to North Korea that threatenedto commit Sept. 11-style acts against theatresshowingthe filmThe Interviewwas engaging in a lot of bluster andlikelyposedno credible security risk to moviegoers.

At least that's the opinion of some security officials and North Korean experts, who believe it's highly unlikely that North Korea, or agents working on behalf of the rogue state, would launch such a brazen attack.

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"I dont think theres any evidenceof a credible capacity to follow throughon that," said Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea studiesat the Council on Foreign Relations. "Ithinkthatthatwas an empty threat."

"Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has a pretty limited network of agentsor collaborators in the continental U.S. so I just dont see them really havingacapacity."

On Wednesday, Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc.cancelled the Dec. 25 release of its comedy after major movie chains had announced they would not screen The Interview over concerns about safety.

Hackerswho called themselves the Guardiansof Peacehad threatened attacks on theatres that showed the film, which centres on a plot to assassinate North Korea's leaderKimJong-un.

Leading up to the film's release, thehackers have been releasing confidential and embarrassing emails they stole from inside Sony's computer network. Although U.S. government officials have not confirmed the source of thecyberattack, several U.S. media outlets reported thatfederal investigators have connected itto North Korea.

Hackinga 'serious national security matter'

The U.S. Justice Dept. and the FBI have been investigating the breach, and White House spokesmanJosh Earnest said officials are treating it as a "serious national security matter."

But so far, U.S. government officials have said there doesn't appear to be any real threat of an attack on theatres that would screen the film.

We see no credible evidence, though, of any serious threat to theatres or some sort ofterrorist attackagainsttheatresthat are screening theparticularmovie at issue," U.S. President Barack Obama said in an interview with ABC News, before Sony had decided to pull the film.

In 2008, the U.S. took North Korea off its list of state sponsors of terrorism. Meanwhile, theU.S. State Department's 2013 Country Reports on Terrorismdeclared that thecountry is notknown to have sponsored any terrorist acts since the bombing of a Korean Airlines flight in 1987.

However, the report noted that North Koreahad yet to fulfil its commitment to reopen its investigation into12 Japanese nationals believed to have been abducted by state entities in the1970sand1980s.

BruceBechtol, an associate professor of political science at Angelo State University and an expert onNorth Korea, said Sony and the theatre chains' decision to capitulate to the hackers' demands was "rather silly" and played rightinto the hands of North Korea.

While the North Koreans have launched attacks in the past, since the 1980sthose attacks have all been onSouth Korean soil.

Wouldn't risk reprisal of attack

"It would be stepping out of what their modus operandihadbeenfor more than 25 years to actually conduct a terrorist attack outside of South Korean soil," Bechtol said.

And even someone as naive as Kim Jong-un wouldn'trisk being linked to an attack on the U.S., knowing the reprisal would be swift and severe, Bechtol said.

Yet Bruce Bennett,a senior defence analyst at the RAND Corporation and an expert on North Korea, wouldn't completely discount the threat of an attack on a movie theatre.

'50% chance they could'

"Could North Korea get some criminal group in the U.S. to hita theatre on their behalf? Good question. I don'tknow but Id have to guess theyd have a 50 per cent chance they could."

"It is clearly largely talk, but before this hack occurred, who would have believed that North Koreacould do this kind of damage to a U.S. company?" Bennett said.

While North Americans may scoff at the notion of launching any sort of attack over a comedy film, Bennett said that the regime in North Korea takes the movie and its plot seriously.

The regime'sconcern is that the movie, which would be banned in North Korea,would eventually make its way on DVD and into the hands ofNorth Koreans,via South Korea, which smugglesthousands of movies into the state.

"So they don't want it tobe shown internationally and have people see that," Bennett said. "And when it gets to North Korea it will get to the elites. And they're goingto see this depiction of Kim Jong-un[and]they're going to see some truth to it. And the fact that somebody goes and tries to kill him, it may generate some thoughts."