Syrian ceasefire: What you need to know about the deal

The announcementof a nationwide ceasefire in Syria brokered by Russia and Turkey was metwith a strong dose of skepticism Thursday, particularly because two previousbrokered deals this year collapsed within weeks.

In fact, clashes broke out early Friday between rebels and Syrian government forces justhours after Russian President Vladimir Putinannounced the agreement between government and opposition groups who have waged battle for nearly six years.

The deal, according to Putin, will be guaranteed by Moscow which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkey, which supports the opposition forces. Iran, a key ally of Assad, also supports the deal.

Putin has saidthe ceasefire will be followed by peace talks next month inKazakhstan.

Here's what else we know about the deal.

Who is included in this ceasefire?

The truce is said toincludeSyrian government forces and 62,000 opposition fighters across the country. At least 13armed opposition factions have signed the five-point agreement and have saidthey willabide by the ceasefire, according to OsamaAboZayd, a spokesman for moderate Syrian opposition groups.

Who isn't included?

Many rebel groups have yet to sign on and several extremist groups, including Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS),theal-Qaeda-linkedFatahal-Sham Frontand JabhatFatehal-Sham (formerly known as al-Nusra),were reportedly excluded from the deal.

How is this ceasefire different from the others?

Two previous agreements this year, brokered by the U.S. and Russia, quickly collapsed. But thisis the first attempt by Russia and Turkey to broker a comprehensive ceasefire.

Why it mightfalter

There are hundredsof rebel groups in the Syrian rebel landscape, and many haveyet toindicatethey will abide by the ceasefire.

"That's one of the main reasons they tend to fall apart," said Emily Hawthorne, aMiddle East and North Africa analyst for the U.S.-based intelligence firm Stratfor. "Wehave noreason to think that this time will be any different."

Why it might hold

Though not optimistic,Hawthorne acknowledgedthere area couplepotentially important differences with this deal, includingthe fact itcomes after the rebels lost Aleppo, following their massive four-year offensive against the government in the city.

"There is a certain desire on the rebel side tocoalesce, to regroup, to rest. So there is hope in thatsensethat the rebelsmight want totake this opportunity to focus onregrouping," she said.

As for thegovernmentforces, they are eager to focus their resources on ISIS, she said.

"There are reasons on the battleground that make it such that some of these actors are willing to abide by a ceasefire on the rebel side and on the loyalist side," she said. "Doesn't mean we should embrace this with a whole lot of hope."

While clashes havealready beenreported, Hawthorne said there needs to be somemajor infractions to scuttle the ceasefire, like a an airstrike or repeated airstrikes.

"Still going to have fire on some of these fronts. We still expect to see some shelling, some violent activity. Still wouldn't mean the ceasefire is called off."

What's in it for Russia and Turkey?

ProfessorDavidLesch of Trinity University saysMoscow is motivated, in part, to gain more geopolitical prominence and beseen as thearbiter of the Syrian conflict.

"This will be a tremendouspropagandavictory if they canat leastbe perceived to be doing this without the United States," said the Texas-based history professorwho specializes in Syria.

But Russia is also looking to draw down its forces in Syria while maintaining a presence.

"They can't do that without helping to bring about a political negotiation and the first step to thatis absolutelya ceasefire," Hawthorne said.

Meanwhile, Turkey's main goal is preventing any establishment of a Kurdish corridor adjacent to its border with Syria.

"For Turkey, it's all about the Kurds," Lesch said."This is why they've improvedrelations withRussia and why they'reincluded in this deal for the ceasefire. Right now, they think that co-operation withRussiawill get them closer with what they want strategically with the Kurds."

What does this mean for Assad?

Assad'sterm officially expires in 2021, and it's possible he could hangon to power until then.

Lesch says the Russians seem to wantAssadto step down in 2021 in a "face-saving way" and as part of a transitional move that would still protect Russian interests.

Turkish PresidentRecepTayyipErdoganhas a strong disdain forAssad butmighttake a pragmatic approach in political negotiations, Hawthorne said.

"They will have to prioritize. Do they care more about the Kurds? Do they care more about who is ruling in Damascus? They're going to pick a political resolution that helps them keep that northern [Syrian] territory under their firm watch and influence so they don't see a federal Kurdish state popping up over the border."

She says Iran could spoil Erdogan'shopes of ousting Assad because it wantsto ensure Assad and his core group of elitesremain in order to channel Iranianpower inthe region.

• Syria's ceasefire holding despite minor violations
• Aleppo: City under siege

But Iran might agree to Assad stepping down, as long as he's succeeded by another powerful Alawite who will protect Iranian interests, Lesch said.

"If Russia and Iran can be convinced that their strategic interests will be protected with Assad stepping down, they will be for that.

"But that doesn't mean Assad would be in agreement with this and ultimately he has the last say."