How Russia is dealing with off-script realities of its war on Ukraine

Multiple drones reportedlyflewacrossRussian territory this week, prompting comment from Moscow.

Officials blamed Ukraine, but claimed the incursions didn't cause any significant damage.

BetweenMonday night and Tuesday, four drones were said to have beenseen inthe borderregion of Belgorod andanother in nearbyBryansk, whilea different drone reportedlystruck an oil refinery in Tuapse, according to The Associated Press. A separate dronecrashedin Adygea, while another ended up inGubastovo, much closer to Moscow.

These episodes, forwhich Ukraine has not claimed credit, seeminglymarked more off-script moments for Russia during its ongoing, bloody and costly invasion ofits neighbour.

Yet Russia doesn't call it a war, instead calling it a "special military operation" a euphemism it has employed throughout theconflict.

Russia watchers say Moscow's narrative has a central tensionitsmessage that everything is going according to plan being challenged by contradictory events that demand explanation.

"When it comes to drones, or rocket strikes, or the blowing up of the Crimea bridge a few months ago, this tension comes into play," said Stanislav Budnitsky, a Russia media politics expertat the Wilson Centerin Washington, D.C.

Reality and TV

Budnitsky said the way that Russia's Channel One, a state broadcaster,described the recent drone attacks is telling.

He watched a report about the drones on a nightly program. It lasted 30 seconds and was the fifth item shown to viewers that night.

The report emphasized the fact the attacks failed and that "they were all intercepted."

The drone report was juxtaposed by a story about how effective the systems were that defend Russia, with particular focus on those capabilities in the parts of Ukraine it recentlyannexed.

"I don't think that's an accident that immediately followed the report that some drones did make it to Russia," said Budnitsky.

He also noted news item on the drones was brief a report about chess that aired later in the broadcast was given twice the time.

Moscow's talking points

Ukraine has proven its ability to strike targets in Russian-held regions such asCrimea, but alsoin Russia itself.

However, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted Wednesday that Ukraine "is waging a defensive war to de-occupy all its territories" and that it "doesn't strike at Russian territory."

On the Russian side of the border, however, officials' statements "acknowledge that these attacks are happening," saidOleg Ignatov, a Brussels-basedRussia analyst with the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization."They are not denying it."

Ignatov said it seems that some drones may be able toevade Russian defences, or those systems are not completely effective.

"As far as the public is concerned, I don't see any comments on this," he said, noting state media coveragefocused on talking points from Russian officials.

But in reading what officials are saying about these recent droneincidents, some experts see another storybeing told.

"The thing is, Russia wanted to have some kind of blitzkrieg, but it is already the second year of the [conflict]," said Olena Morozova,an assistant professor of Ukrainian studies at the University of British Columbia.

"So, right now, they need something else to boost it up," which Morozova saidleads officials to find something to point that people can fear.

"In this situation, it is: 'Look here Ukraine is trying to cross borders and this is fearsome."

Morozova, who was in Kharkivwhen Russia began shelling it last year, said Moscow also uses this messaging as a way of touting its defence capabilities while conveying "you should be scared, you should fear what is happening."

There may be valid reason to be concerned, though, as drones have been used in high-profile attacks in conflict elsewhere.

And Russia's long border and sprawling geography presents defensivechallenges.

Peter A. Wilson, a senior defence analyst at the RAND Corporation think-tank, said Russia has tools to defend itself, but they can't be deployed in all locations at the same time.

He said "the real threat" may lie in thepossibility of a swarming attack, in which a large number of drones are used in a combined offensive a scenario Russian war bloggers have pointed toin the wake of the recent incidents.

Hard to gauge public view

What people in Russia are concluding from what they are being told about the drones and other events is hard to sayas a true picture of public opinion may be very hard to gauge from outside of the country.

"The question of how are people actually reacting on the ground to all of this and what are they thinking, I don't think that we can tell that from what the Kremlin is saying," said Maya Vinokour, an assistant professorin the Department ofRussian and Slavic Studies at New York University.

Ignatov, of the International Crisis Group,said he's mostly seen pundits reacting to the spate of drone sightings one of whom claimed a drone had flown near his dacha, or country home.

At this point, Ignatovbelieves the drone reports may be painful for Russian authorities in terms of their public image, perhaps demonstrating"the situation is worse than it is in the official statements."

For Morozova, who's experienced the war up close, the images that some Russians may be shown about drones do not match the degree ofdevastation that many Ukrainians have seen as missiles have struck their cities.

"If you could see the damage done to my city in particular, what I've seen itis so minute, as compared to a couple of drones that fell somewhere, not harming anyone," she said.