China could take leadership role in Paris climate change deal if Trump pulls U.S. out

A U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement isunlikely to scuttle the international deal, but it couldinstead see China takeon a leadership role, experts say.

"I think a lot of it will fall upon the shoulders of China," saidHenrik Selin, director of curricular innovation andinitiatives at Boston University's Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies.

He said with China,the planet's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, remaining committed to tackling climate change and supporting thedeal, it could be an example for other countries and "at least fill some of the vacuum left by the U.S."

"I think on some level, China can see this as an opportunity to provide leadership."

Donald Trump's plans forthe agreement have become unclear since the election. On the campaign trail, candidate Trumprepeatedly pledged he wouldcancel the deal. But president-elect Trump seems to be hedging.

In an interview with the editorial board of the New York Times on Tuesday, Trump said he would"keep an open mind" about whether to pull the U.S. out of the agreement.

"I'm looking at it very closely," hesaid.

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Theagreementcalls on its 191 signatory countriesto drastically cut their greenhouse gas emissions in a bid to keepthe average globaltemperature increase"to well below 2 C" compared topre-industrial times. It wants the world to be carbon neutral meaning human activity isn'tproducing moregreenhouse gases thantrees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally after 2050 butbefore 2100.

It also seeks to create a transparent system that will allow the public to monitor how well each country is doing in meeting its climate change goals in hopesthis will motivate them to transition more quickly to clean, renewable energy like wind, solar and hydropower.

Regardless of what Trump decides, the agreement says a country can't withdraw for four years.

'Digging intheir heels'

Selin said he doesn't believe a U.S. withdrawal would cause a domino effect with other countries followingsuit. So far, statementsfrom officials at theMarrakech Climate Conferencesuggestthe signatories remain committed, he said.

"It seems like othercountries are just digging intheir heels and pretty much all statements over the last week indicate they will continue taking action even if the U.S. pulls out," he said.

Even India and Russia, two less-than-enthusiastic signatories, are so far expressing support for the deal.

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Selinsaid he believes India will remain supportive since itsemissions targets and climate change policiesaren'tparticularly onerous.

As for Russia, the Kremlin was never going tobe an active player ordrivingforce behind the deal, he said.

"I can see [Russian PresidentVladimir]Putinmaking the calculation it'sbetter to be on the inside than the outside."

There would be no need to renegotiate the agreement if the U.S. backs out, Selin said.It would just haveone less player, albeit a major one.

"The agreement will stand as is," he said. "Theagreement hasenteredinto force, it will remain into force. The U.S. pulling outwon'tchange the legaland politicalstuctures."

U.S. states can set'ambitious' targets

And it doesn't stop individual states, like California or New York, from continuing with their own climate change initiatives.

"The federal governmentis very importantin settingthe rulesof thegame across the 50 states, setting the lowestcommon denominator," Selin said. "Butthe states have the authority to move beyond that. If they want to have ambitious GHG targets, they can do that."

It seems like othercountries are just digging intheir heels and pretty much all statements over the last week indicate they will continue taking action even if the U.S. pulls out.- HenrikSelin, Boston University's Frederick S.PardeeSchool of Global Studies

With the U.S contributing around 15 per cent ofglobal emissions, pulling out of the accord would affect the world's ability to reach theoverall goals. But as Selin said, "85 per cent is still a sizeable chunk of global emissions."

A U.S. withdrawal could also affect how the accord is implemented.

MichaelWara, an associate professor at Stanford Law School who specializes inclimate and electricity policy, saysit wasthe U.S., workingwith other developed countries, that focused on crafting the deal's monitoring, reporting and verification framework.

China, he says, has pushed back very stronglyand wants less transparency.

"[China has] saidwe don'twant internationalmonitors telling us our national statisticsare not accurate or the programs we say are working are not actuallyworking,'' hesaid. "And what the Paris agreement really does functionallyis set up that internationalmonitoring system."

Warasuggestedthe monitoring system mightbe less stringent if China takes a leadership role.

"Is it less effective without U.S.participation? Yes. The reason to have the transparencyis to buildgreater trust. Not just that people keep their promises, but you can actually tell whether people have kept their promises."

Todd Stern, the former U.S. special envoy for climate change whohelped negotiate the accord, said in a recent interview that he believes there would be diplomatic backlash against the U.S. if it pulled out and damaged the agreement.

"Itwill have the impact of having the whole system just kind of not work as effectively and as rapidly as it would if the U.S. were there," he told The Atlantic.

"If the U.S. wanders off, that's going to harm the pace and effectiveness of the system."

• 5 key points in Paris Agreement on climate change
• 'We remain in a race against time'