How will North Korea's 'wild card' troops perform in a modern conflict? The world could soon find out

The world could soon seehow North Korea's soldiers perform in a modern conflict after NATO and the Pentagon confirmed this week that about10,000 of Pyongyang's troops have landed in Russia, with U.S. officialswarning Thursday that the majority are intheKursk region borderingUkraine and will soon likely enter the conflict.

"We've not yet seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, but we would expect that to happen in the coming days," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a news conference.

In themore than two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has sustainedheavy battlefield losses (NATO puts thenumber of dead or wounded Russian soldiers at more than600,000) and faceschallenges in finding new fighters.

Soldiers provided by its ally North Korea would provide Russia with afresh source of manpower without requiring them to call upRussian citizens to fight, but the question of how effective these soldiers can bein modern warfare remains.

North Korea hasn't participated in a war of such a scopein decades, but the reclusive state led by Kim Jong-un maintainsan army of more than amillion people, conducts provocativemissile testsand has aggressively pursued the development ofnuclear weapons despite Western efforts to stop it.

All of this makes the North Korean contingentsbeing sent to Russia and deployed in Ukraine what one think-tankcalls "a wild card."Here's what we know and don't know about these troops.

WATCH | Western allies worry as North Korean troops appear to be in Russia:

Unverified video appears to show North Korean troops in Russia

20 days ago

Duration 2:06

A Ukrainian government agency says North Korea has sent troops to Russia to support its military operation in Ukraine. Unverified video purportedly shows North Koreans picking up Russian uniforms and military gear.

What battle experience doNorth Korean troops have?

The last time North Korea's military entered into a large-scale conflict was in 1950, when it invaded South Korea to begin theKorean War, which lasted three years before anarmistice was signed. But tensions between the two have endured.

In the decades since, North Korea has occasionally sent troops abroad, but on a smaller scale thanwhat's happening in Russia today.

"This deployment is historic for North Korea, which has previously sent advisory or specialist groups abroad but never a large ground force," the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think-tank, said in a recent post on its website.

North Korea was known to have sent pilots to fight in the Vietnam war in the 1960s and '70s, though accounts vary on the number.

North Koreaalso sent some 1,500 military advisers and several dozen air force personnel to Egyptduring the Yom Kippur War of 1973, according toNiu Song, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University.

More recently, according to media reports in 2013that Pyongyang denied,North Korea providedmilitary aidtoBashar al-Assad's regime in Syria,including helicopter pilots and advisers.

What kind of training do thesetroops have?

Ukraine's military intelligence has stated that the North Korean deploymentincludes 500 officers and a handful of generals.On Thursday, Blinken said the troops sent to Russia had been receiving training in artillery, drones as well as "basic infantry operations," which he said included training on the clearing of trenches.

South Korea's National Intelligence Servicehad previouslyreportedthat some ofthe troops that Pyongyangsent to Russia are part of North Korea's special forces and they had been undergoing training atmilitary bases in Russia's Far East.

The BrookingsInstitution, a Washington-based think-tank, saysNorth Korea's special forces are considered "elite troops"that are better trained than fresh recruits from Russia.

More generally,analysts see potential challengesRussia will face in integrating these troops into their war effort, including being able to communicate though media reports suggestit'saiming to provide one translator for every 30 North Korean soldiers.

Can theymake a difference?

Opinions vary on the impact Pyongyang's soldiers could have on the Ukraine war, though their presence in Russia isviewed as an unwelcome development for both the war itselfand broader regional security.

"The deepening military co-operation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security," NATO Secretary-General MarkRuttetold reporters Monday.

Analystsand observers saythe initial number of North Korean troops isn't large enough to significantly change the picture on the battlefield.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army major general, assessesthat the troops from North Korea currently being deployed from Russia"are unlikely to have a decisive impact on the war in Ukraine." In a recentanalysishe noted that their current totals amount to roughly a week's worth ofRussian casualties.

The CSIS think-tankcalled the presence of thetroops"a wild card." It predicted they would likely serve in support roles for Russia.

Kim Yong-hyun ofSouth Korea's Dongguk University alsosees the Pyongyang-sentsoldiersproviding"meaningful support," but says it won't be a game-changing boost for Moscow.

He told Reuters they could provide a role defending against potentialUkrainian advances within Russian territory.

Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank,believes the most significantthreat North Korea poses to Ukraine isn't these troops, but ratherthe millions of rounds of ammunitionit has already sent to Russia.

"This is how the Russians are just conducting a comprehensive artillery campaign against the Ukrainians," he said.

Montgomery also said that though North Koreantroops could gain practical battlefield experience by fighting in Ukraine, theycould also be thrown into thecostly"meat-grinder" assaults that Russia has relied on tomake incremental gains.

And if, as a result, they face high casualty rates, the BrookingsInstitutionhas notedthat Kim Jong-un's willingness to send elitesoldiers to Russia would likely be tempered.

U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday reiterated Washington's position that if North Korea's troops join the fight against Ukraine, "they would make themselves legitimate military targets."

WATCH | North Korea, South Korea and the war in Ukraine:

Could North and South Korea enter the Russia-Ukraine war? | About That

16 days ago

Duration 12:06

South Korean intelligence suggests North Korea is sending troops to aid Russia in its war with Ukraine. Andrew Chang explains the implications of the alliance between Russia and North Korea on the war, and why South Korea could become involved.

Why is North Korea doing this and what's next?

In recent months, North Korea hassigned a mutual-aid pactwith Russia and is now doing even more by sending thousand of troopsto serve its ally.

Jun Lee, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation think-tank,saysNorth Korea has seemingly leaned toward Russia in a bid to change the status quo, as it struggles with ongoing sanctions and spillover effectsfrom the pandemic.

"It saw the Ukraine war as this sort of geopolitical opportunity to make a big bet,get closer to Russia and kind of mitigate some of its biggest issues," he said in an interview.

And with North Korea's armed forces numbering some 1.3 million members, thetroops it has sent to Russia representjust afraction of its available soldiers, and severalobservers see the potential for thesedeployments to grow.

On Tuesday, North Korea said its foreign ministerhad travelled to Russia. Though it didn't state why,South Korea'sspy agency suspectsthe diplomat may be there to discuss the possibility of sending even more troops to Russia's aid.