North Korea nuclear tests present dilemma for ally China

As UN Secretary GeneralBan Ki-moon spoke, you could hear the disappointment in his voice. "I donot simply understand why they are continuing like this."

Hours earlier, North Korea's nuclear weapons test had shocked the world. But hisdisappointment is personal. As the United Nations'top diplomat, he hasspent a decade trying to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclearprogram. As a South Korean, he knows the nervousness that programtriggers.

"It's a deeply disappointing concern for this act of provocation, continuingagainst such an honest appeal and urging by the international community,"he said.

Appeals, inducements or threats nothing seems to have worked.

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Not even some of the toughest sanctions the UN Security Council has appliedagainst any country, implemented in March. Those were meant to severelylimit trade with North Korea, and choke off the money and suppliesPyongyang needs to continue its nuclear program.

Instead, North Korea's technology seems to be improving. So much so thatU.S. nuclear weapons experts say stopping it is no longer a realistic option.

The only possibility is to freeze it, says Siegfried Hecker, the former director of the U.S. Los Alamos National Laboratory, the heart of theAmerican nuclear weapons program.

Fuel andcapacityfor more bombs

"My best estimate at this time is that they may have enough bomb fuel for18 bombs, with a capacity to make six to sevenmore annually. That,combinedwith the increased sophistication they surely achieved with this test, paints atroublesome picture,"Hecker told a Stanford University publication afterNorth Korea's previous test in January.

Friday's test was the fifth in a decade, and the most powerful for the teamof scientists assembled by North Korea's reclusive dictator, Kim Jong-un.

North Korea says its aim is to become a nuclear power, one with the meansto threaten the United States with weapons powerful enough to wreakhavoc, small enough to shoot overseas on the tip of a missile.

With each test,North Korea sends a message to its people that it is strong,and a message to the world that it is defiant,says Xiaohe Cheng, the deputy director of Renmin University's Centre for China's International Strategicstudies in Beijing.

"It's saying it will defy, ignore, challenge the Security Council's authority,"he says.

And, it continues to threaten the United States and South Korea.

The North Korean people are "always ready to retaliate against theenemies,"it said on state TV after Friday's blast. "It is part of practicalcountermeasures to the racket of threat and sanctions against [North Korea]kicked up by the U.S.-led hostile forces who have gone desperate."

Maybe not desperate, but many countries are certainly frustrated withPyongyang, including North Korea's most powerful traditional ally, China.

Beijing says it is "firmly opposed"to its continued tests. "We strongly urgethe DPRK[North Korea] to honour its commitment of de-nuclearization,"it said in astatement shortly after Friday's detonation.

But China's role in this dilemma has been complicated.

On one hand, China doesn't want North Korea (which it refers to asDemocratic People's Republic ofKorea or DPRK)to become a nuclear power,says Renmin University's Cheng.

"This would encourage other countries in northeast Asia to follow its stepsto pursue their own nuclear weapons,"he says such as South Korea andJapan.

U.S. movescomplicateChina's role

The standoff has already increased tension between Beijing and Washington,over the Amercians'recent commitment to station a sophisticated system of radarsand defensive missiles in South Korea. The U.S. says it's meant to protect theAmerican ally from North Korean aggression. China says it will interfere withits own defences.

On the other hand, China's support for the North Korean regime goes back tothe 1950s and the Korean War. The Chinese Communist Party has strongpractical and ideological ties with the ruling Workers'Party of Korea.

The last thing China wants is to see a messy regime change, especially on itsborders. Its concern is that since North Koreans have sacrificed so much forthis nuclear program,Pyongyang must not seem to be "forced"to abandonit. Otherwise,Kim Jong-uncould be so weakened that his government couldfall.

North Korea TV announcement on nuclear test

8 years ago

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North Korea TV announcement on nuclear test

For the same reason, China has tried to soften the blow of UN sanctions bycontinuing to buy and sell goods that are allowed or that fall into a grey zone. Infact, 90 per cent of North Korea's trade is with China.

Some even accuse China of turning a blind eye to an elaborate system set upover the past few years by Pyongyang to evade sanctions and to continue topurchase fuel and other technical supplies for its nuclear program.

Getting around sanctions

Research by John Park at Harvard University found that North Korean stateenterprises "operate inside of China Most are attracting more sophisticatedChinese business partners who act as middlemen in transactions designed toevade sanctions."

Cheng says China is cracking down now,but it could be doing more toinfluence the leaders of North Korea. "China has more leverage on DPRK and China certainly coulddo more to punish DPRK, if DPRK is continuing its provocation,"he says. It would likely take even tougher UN resolutions to push China inthat direction, the kind that are now being debated by the Security Council, he adds.

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And throughout, North Korea has been confident it can count on China'ssupport. Sometimes, like this week, it has even sent messengers to briefChinese officials about developments. Sources have told CBC that two seniorgovernment officials travelled to Beijing to give China a heads-up the nightbefore this latest nuclear test.

Cheng says Kim Jong-unshouldn't continue to assume that.

"I think the decision makers in Pyongyang have to think hard before theymake further nuclear and missile provocations. China's tolerance of DPRK'sbad behaviours is limited,"he says.

"Don't push China too hard."