Races to watch in U.S. midterms: 'Kavanaugh effect' could hold off 'blue wave'

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has taken his place on the top U.S. court, but the ramifications of his contentious confirmation may spill over into the Nov. 6 midtermsand possiblystymie a Democratic "blue wave."

The judge's confirmation amidsexual assaultallegations has soenraged Democrat voters thatit could motivate themto come outin droves to support their candidates and try and remove Republicans.

Butthe GOP has also been re-energized by what they perceive as an attemptedDemocratic hitjob on Kavanaugh.

TomBevan, co-founder of the political websiteRealClearPoliticsbelieves "the Kavanagheffect" is real.Hesaid he can't be certain there's a correlation, but he has observedsome Republicans in red states seem to be getting a bit of a boost in the polls.

He said the otherbig question is whether "this Republican intensity and outrage that was generated by these hearings" lasts into the midterms.

"If that dissipates, then the blue wave could be back on."

Republicans currentlyhave control ofthe White House,the House of Representativesand the Senate. Historically, midterm elections spell bad news for the party in control of the presidency.

That, along with low approval numbers for President Donald Trump, hadobservers predicting a "blue wave," in whichDemocrats could regaincontrol of the House and possibly the Senate.

All 435House seats are in play for the midterms.For a Democratic victory, they would need to keep their current 194 seatswhile adding another 24.

Democrats are still favoured to win the House, butthe wave may not be as powerful as once forecast. RealClearPoliticshas the Democrats slightly leading the Republicans, with around 30 toss-up districts, which include five in California and three in New Jersey.

"The range of outcomesin the House is pretty dramatic. It could be everything from Dems winning 40 or 50 seats to Dems winning five seats," said Bevan.

"I think most most people who are looking at this stuff pretty closely think it's right on the knife's edge right now.Democrats are still favoured to win the House by a couple of seats. But you could certainly make the argument, depending on how things go the next few weeks, that they could fall short, dependingon how this Kavanaugh stuff plays out."

Most politicalobservers believe Republicans willbe able to retain the Senate.

"You have a lot of Democrats who initially got elected in pretty Republican states like West Virginia and Montana and Indiana and Missouri, North Dakota. Those Democrats are suddenly facing re-election," said Bill Schneider, professor of Policy, Government and International Affairsat George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.

"In a year that ...does look good for Democrats, will it be good enough for them to keep their seats?"

The Republicans enjoy a smalltwo-seat advantagein the Senate, meaning the Democrats have to pick up an extra two at least to win. Thirty-five seats are up for grabs, nine of themRepublican.

"The thing to keep in mind is there are a lot more vulnerable Democratic senators up this year, about eight of them, and only about two or three vulnerable Republican senators," Schneider said.

RealClearPoliticshas identifiedseventoss-up Senate seats: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Montana, Missouri Nevada and Tennessee. Four lean Democrat and two lean Republican.

Races to watch:

Texas

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz vs. Democratic Rep.BetoO'Rourke

It's apolitical contestthat has garneredmuch attention, given itsrelative closeness. Democrats are salivating at thepossibilitythat a political giant like Cruz, a former presidential nominee candidate, could be slayed by congressman BetoO'Rourke.

His underdogvictory would also place O'Rourke in the national spotlight, and he couldvery likely be on a nationalticket for 2020, said Schneider.

"He has a lot of personal appeal. He's a very active candidate, and Ted Cruz is really not," Schneider said.

His appeal stems in part from his brutal campaign schedule, traversing across the state tovisitall of its 254 counties.

And his down-to-earth charisma andrefusal to take money from political action committeeshas translated to more than 800,000 donors and massive amounts offundraising. On Friday, his campaign announced ithad raised $38.1 million US, a record in a Senate raceand more than triple the amount Cruz took in during the same period.

"The energy there is real, there's no question," said Bevan. "[O'Rourke is]getting big crowds. People are excited about him and he has certainly got tons and tons of [fundraising]money."

Yet, so far, that hasn't translated into winningpolling numbers.Polls consistently show Cruz leadingO'Rourke, who received 500,000 fewer votes than Cruz in their respective primaries.

Historically, Texas has one of the lowest voter turnouts for midterm elections in the country.O'Rourke'sonly realistic shot,Schneider says, is to tap into those typical non-votersand convince them to come to the polls.

And while theslowly changing demographics may favour the Democrats, Texas remains fundamentally more Republican, saidBevan.

"When you get down to it, there are just so many more Republicans still in Texas that he would have to ride a huge, huge wave to beat Ted Cruz there," saidBevan."I'mskeptical."

North Dakota

Democratic Sen.HeidiHeitkampvs. Republican Rep. KevinCramer

Heitkamp's defeat hasbeen a top priority for Republicans, and sheis certainlyone of the endangeredDemocrats this year,fighting to be re-elected in a state that Trump tookby 36 points.

In such partisan times, the popular senatorhas been able to forge a working relationship with Trump, who had considered her for his cabinet after his election. She has supported some of his initiatives, including a banking deregulation bill.

Heitkamp was also one of three Democrats who supported Trump's U.S. Supreme Court choice of Neil Gorsuch. But her poll numbers have been sinking and she may have hurt her chances by voting againstKavanaugh.

Indiana

Democratic Sen.Joe Donnelly vs. Republican challenger Mike Braun

One of the top targets of the Republicans, Donnelly was viewed by some as the "accidental senator," winning in 2012 against RepublicanRichard Mourdock, who had suggested rape was "something that God intended to happen."

Braun, a former Republican state representative (and formerDemocrat), is fighting Donnelly in a state that Trump carried by nearly 20 points. That factor may have led Braun to make Kavanaughan issue at a recent debate, criticizing the incumbent for refusing to support the judge.

"That's a race to watch, because if Democrats cannot hold Indiana, their chance of taking back the Senate is almost non-existent," said Bevan. "In fact, probably makes it look more likely that Republicans would expand their majority in the Senate."

Tennessee

Democratic candidate PhilBredesenvs. Republican Rep.Marsha Blackburn

With theretirement of Senator Bob Corker, this reliable Republican seat has been left up for grabs. There has not been a Democrat from the state in the Senate since former vice-president Al Goreback in 1990.

The stateelected Trump by 26 points, yet the Senate race is very tight, and the congresswoman is in for a battle. She's up against Democrat PhilBredesen, the popular former governor who has secured at leastone key endorsement: Taylor Swift. The pop singerrecently said she'd be voting in Tennessee, but supporting Bredesen, as she opposes Blackburn's voting recordonLGBTandwomen'sissues.

West Virginia

Democratic Sen. JoeManchinvs.West Virginia Attorney GeneralPatrickMorrisey

It's a tight race in West Virginia,a Republican stateTrump won by more than 40 points, his largest vote share in the whole country.

Manchinisa centrist Democratwho recently told Politico that he supports Trump "sometimes more than other Republican senators." He hasalso mused about the unthinkable for a Democrat:backing a second-term Trump presidency in 2020.

Hewas the only Democrat to supportKavanaugh, having previouslyendorsed Gorsuch, yet he remains in a tough battle with Morrisey.

"[Manchin] actually may be able to survive because of his vote on the Supreme Court," Schneider said.

Arizona

Republican Rep. Martha McSallyvs. Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema

History will be made in Arizona, whoever ends up winning the seat, which is being vacated by GOP Sen.Jeff Flake. It will be the first time a woman has represented the state in the Senate.

Although a traditional red state, demographic shifts have seen Arizona turn purple, giving Sinemaa good chance at winning. She is part of the so-called Blue Dog Coalition: Democrats who see themselves as more centrist and conservative.McSally,formerly a vocal critic of Trump, has edged right and sincealigned herself with the president.

Both women are trailblazers. McSally is aformer combat veteran andwas the first female fighter pilot to fly in combat for the U.S. Air Force. Sinema was the first openly bisexual member of Congress.

Missouri

Democratic Sen.Claire McCaskillvs.MissouriAttorney General Josh Hawley

McCaskillhad some help in her 2012 re-election bid in this traditional red state, when her then-opponent,Republican Todd Aiken, infamously stated that "if it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to shut it down."

Now, she's up against the Ivy League-educated JoshHawley, the state's attorney general. Trump carried thisstate by 19 points, and according to U.S. political datawebsiteFiveThirtyEight,McCaskill has supported Trump's initiativesabout 45 per cent of the time.

Florida

Democratic Sen.Bill Nelson vs. Republican Governor Rick Scott

Nelson is considered the last-remaining southern Democratic senatoroutside of Virginia, and he's the only Democrat elected statewide inFlorida.

He's up against Scott, the popular current governor. That makes ita difficult seat forNelson to hold on to, and one of the most endangered of the Democratic Senate seats,said Schneider.

Nevada

Republican Sen.Dean Heller vs.Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen

Democrats have high hopes of unseating Heller, one ofthe most vulnerable of Republican senators up forre-election, and the only one in a state that was carried by Hillary Clinton.

Governor races

Two close races to keep an eye on are the open governorship races in Florida and Georgia, which both feature black Democratic candidates Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams.

Gillumpulled off a shocking victory in the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary. Meanwhile, a win for Abrams in November would make her America'sfirst black female governor.

"If they win, that will be pretty noticeable," Schneider said. "You could have an African-American Democrat elected in Florida, which is the biggest swing state in the country, and you could have an African-American woman Democrat elected in Georgia, which is a deep southern state.

"If either of them win, or both of them win, they'll be national figures very, very quickly."