What's at stake for France and its president in Sunday's vote

The presidency of France's Emmanuel Macron could shift dramaticallydepending on the outcome of a closely watched vote this Sunday, which has the potential of putting a far-right party much closer to powerthan has been the case in decades.

After the first round of voting in the recently calledparliamentary elections,Macron's centrist Renaissance partytrailed boththe far-rightNational Rally, also called the Rassemblement National or RN,and a left-wing bloc of parties.

If the vote Sunday results in a majority for the RN, Macron would be forced to share power with the far-right. Though RN opponents are moving strategically toprevent such an outcome, observers say it appears that Macron miscalculated the amount of political polarization in France.

Here's a brief look at how things got to this point.

Didn't France just have an election?

Two years ago, Macron was re-electedto a second presidential term. Legislative elections were held later in 2022.

Macron called France's snap parliamentary electionin response to a strong showing of right-wing parties in European parliamentary elections last month, dealinghis own centrists a crushing defeat.

He cast"therise of nationalists and demagogues" as a threat to France, as well as its position in Europe and the wider world.

How does voting workin France?

The parliamentary election sent French voters to the pollsto choose their local representatives forFrance's National Assembly.

Candidates had to win more than50 per cent of votes to be declared an outright winner in the first round.

In cases where that didn't happen, a second round of voting follows, involving the top-two finishers and anyone who got at least one-eighth of the ballots cast in the first round.

The RN and its alliesled the first-roundpolls, followed by a group of left-wing parties. TheRenaissance party and other centrist alliestrailed both.

WATCH | First round of French voting sees National Rally leading:

Frances far right takes lead in 1st round of parliamentary elections

2 months ago

Duration 2:09

The far right is on the verge of taking power in France for the first time since the Second World War after President Emmanuel Macrons party lost badly in a snap election.

What is the RN?

The RNis afar-right anti-immigrant political party previously known as the National Front.

It changed its namein 2018at the behest of former leader Marine Le Pen, who is alsothe daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party's co-founder.

Edward Berenson, a professor of history and French studies at New York University, said MarineLe Pen saw the limitations that the party faced in being closely linked to her father.

The elder Le Pen wasa controversial political figure withmultiple convictions for racism and antisemitism, but who nonetheless won nearly 17 per cent of the votein the country's2002 presidential election when "basically the entire left voted for Jacques Chirac," said Berenson.

He noted that based onthose results, Marine Le Pen realized her father, who is now in mid-90s,would face aceilingin terms of voter support. The party would go on tosever its ties with himin 2015 as part of an effortto soften the RN's image.

Marine Le Pen first ran for president in 2012 when she came in third. She then roughly doubled her father's results at the polls in the 2017 presidential contest, and garnered 41 per cent of the vote in 2022 losing to Macron on both occasions.

The RN is currently led by Jordan Bardella, who succeededLe Pen as leaderin November 2022.

Le Pen remains a party member and retained her seat in the National Assembly during the first-round of voting last weekend. A second roundwon't be necessary for her due to the strong support she receivedin her Pas-de-Calais district in northern France.

What are RN opponents doing?

The RN's leading position in the first round of voting has prompted the party's opponents to take actionto preventan overall win in the election.

During second-round voting, more than 200 candidates are dropping their names from considerationin districts where RN candidates could benefit from vote splitting.

Meanwhile,RNcandidates are coming under greater scrutiny.

One RN candidate was dropped after a photo emerged of her wearing a Nazi officer's cap. The party is also dealing with concerns about the suitability of other candidates who have made controversial statements or who haven't been visibleon the campaign trail.

What's in store for Macron?

Macron's presidentialterm is set to last until 2027 and he's said he won't step down before that.

However, if the RN prevails in the legislativeelections, Macron couldbe forced into a power-sharing agreement with Bardella, 28.

If that happens, Bardella would be the youngest-ever French prime minister taking the recordfrom current prime minister Gabriel Attal, who was just 34 when he started in that role earlier this year.

The possibility ofpower-sharing

In France, the prime minister is the head of the government, while the president is thehead of state.

If the two figures are politically aligned, the French president can wieldgreater influence and power.But in a case where they are from opposing parties a scenario known as "cohabitation" that has occurred in the past power must be shared and that relationship can become fraught.

Three decades before Macron came to power, the late French president Franois Mitterrand faced just such a scenario.Following legislative elections in1986, Mitterrand, a Socialist,appointedthe conservativeChiracas prime minister.

Berenson saysthe constitution that's been in place in France for nearlyseven decades was aimed at stabilizing the national government and establishing a more powerful presidency.

Yet it doesn't appear able to prevent what Macron will likely face after Sunday's second-round vote either trying to arrange a coalition of parties to lead the government, or dealing with the RN.

"[Today's France] looks like a country that does not any longer have two dominant parties, but a lot of smaller parties," said Berenson.

WATCH |Macron's risky election decision:

France snap election: The logic behind Macrons big gamble | About That

2 months ago

Duration 9:19

After right-leaning and far-right parties made major gains in the European parliamentary elections, French President Emmanuel Macron called a surprise snap election. Andrew Chang explains what the French president stands to lose or possibly gain from taking such a gamble.

He notedthat Macron's initial rise to power in the centre of France's political spectrum came at the expense of moderate left- and right-leaning parties andcontributed to political polarization.

Geopolitical commentatorSamantha de Bendernwent further, tellingNBC Newsthat France'scentre has "imploded."

"Macron miscalculated," she said. "He was hoping the moderate left and moderate right would both come to him. Instead, they've both joined the extremes."

Stakes for allies, Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose own country has seen a rise in voter support for far-right parties,expressed hope Tuesday that French voters"will succeed in preventing a government led by a right-wing populist party from being formed."

Ukraine and Russiawill be watching the outcome closely, too.

Macron has been a vocalsupporter of Ukraine, whereas the RN's Bardellaisexpected topull back on providing Kyiv with long-range weapons and put stricter limits on French support.

Political analyst Douglas Webber told CBS News thatan outcome puttingBardella in a lead role ingovernment "would bea very good result for Vladimir Putin" and a bad one for Ukraine.

Yet NYU's Berenson said French support for Ukraine couldbe lessened whether the RN heads the government or not, because other oppositionparties also want to limitengagement in the war.

"No matter what the outcome is," he said, "Macron is going to be much more constrained."

LISTEN | France's surging far right:

Front Burner22:12Why is Frances far right surging toward power?