Hillary Clinton's stronger ground game could make the difference in the U.S. election

Political operatives call it the ground game advantage: how well the parties get out the vote. It can tip the scales just one or two points in favour of either candidate. With some of the crucialbattleground states, such asNorth Carolina and Florida, still too close to call, it could be a significant, if not deciding, factor in tonight's U.S. election.

And on that score, it would seem thatDemocratic candidate Hillary Clinton has an advantage over Republican candidate Donald Trump.

"Clinton very clearly has a larger and more extensive fieldoperation than Trump and the [Republican National Committee]," said JoshuaDarr, assistant professor of political communication at theManship School of Mass CommunicationatLouisiana State University.

Darr has noted, for example, that Clinton has twice as many field offices as Trump,and that her organization dominates Trump's in every battleground state.

• Get live election results
• LIVE BLOG|Follow the latest news and analysis

"The scarceness of Trump's offices in several of his must-win states, and their unclear focus on his candidacy, cast real doubts on the Republican nominee's ability to get out the vote," Darr wrote recently on statistical analytics website FiveThirtyEight.com.

Democratic strategist Brad Bannonis emphatic that there really isno comparison between the two campaignsin terms of aground game network. Unlike Trump's team, the Clinton campaign, he said, has"thousands and thousands" of people mobilized all across the country.

"And I think that's worth a point or two. In some states, it will probably make the difference," Bannon said. "I think the Clinton ground advantage could make or break those states."

The campaigns each try to identify their candidate's supporters and organize ways to get those voters to the polls on election day. That includes sending volunteersto their doors, calling voters to remind them to vote, making sure they know where to vote and supplying rides to the polls.

'Have not matched Clinton's efforts'

But there's a big difference in how the candidates are running these operations. The Clinton campaign is in charge of its ground game but has worked in tandem with the Democratic National Committee to co-ordinatefield efforts. However, Trump and his campaign haveall but relinquished control of the ground game to the RNC and state party officials.

• CBC presidential poll tracker
• U.S. election 101: How a president is elected

"The RNC has got that under control, and they have not matched Clinton's efforts, and it's unclear if they will be the messengersthat [Trump]wants them to be on election day because his campaign hasn't exactly contributed a lot on that front," Darr said.

The problem for Trump is that in some states, the RNC hasdecided to focus its resources more on getting Republican senators electedin tight races than on the presidential candidate.

I think it's somewhat odd that Trump has relinquishedquite a bit more control to the RNC than other candidates have.- JoshuaDarr, assistant professor of political communication, Louisiana State University

Not only does this steer the focus away from electing Trump, it can have the effect of mobilizingticket splitters Republicans who will vote for their party's senator but not its presidential nominee.

"I think it's somewhat odd that Trump has relinquishedquite a bit more control to the RNC than other candidates have," Darr said.

Trump, early in his campaign, made a conscious choice not to invest in these ground game resources, said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. Instead, Trump hoped thatcommunicating to voters through numerous rallies and press conferences would draw them to the polls.

• The balance of power and what's at stake in this U.S. election
• More stories and analysis on the U.S. presidential election

"We'll see on election day whether that was a mistake," Bonjean said. "It would have been wiser to use every tool in his arsenal to get voters out there to the polls. But if he wins, he'll prove himself correct."

In Florida, a crucial state for Trump, the Democrats' get-out-the-vote campaign might already be producing important electoral gains. Early voting shows that Hispanic voters, many of whom may oppose Trump because ofhis controversial comments about Mexicans and his position on illegal immigration, have already voted in record numbers.

'Where the rubber meets the road'

"The ground game is where the rubber meets the road in Florida," said University of Florida political science professorDaniel Smith.

• Economic anxiety doesn't explain Trump's divisive power: Keith Boag
• What Americans are saying about this election

WhileClinton's ground game in Floridamight not quite match that of Barack Obama's in 2012, Smith said Clinton's campaign has offices across the state, with thousands of volunteers as well as paid staff. Trump, meanwhile, must rely on the Republican Party in Florida,a formidable operation in the state, said Smith.

"Buthow many of those establishment Republicans who are partof the partyare really goingto be working on behalfof Donald Trump?" asked Smith. "That's one of the big questions."

Bonjean said while Clinton certainly has the strongground game advantage across the country, Trump has the enthusiasmfactor.

"That's why the [Clinton campaign] has put out a strong get-out-the vote network," he said. "Whetheror not that will help on election day isstill up in the air, but youwouldrather have a valuablenetworkthan not atall."