Biden signals a tougher stance against Russia. Will it deter Putin from invading Ukraine?

U.S. President Joe Biden's move to put 8,500 troops on heightened alert for a potentialdeployment to Eastern Europe, along with a $200-million US shipment of defensive weapons to Ukraine, suggests the administration wants to signal it is taking a more-aggressive approach toward Russiaand the looming threat of a Ukraine invasion.

While some observers believe the U.S. administrationis on the right trackand have praised Biden'sperformance in handling this crisis, others say he has reacted too slowly and his recent actionsmaynot be enough to thwart Russian President Vladimir Putin's military ambitions.

"I think they've reached the conclusionwhich a lot of critics have been telling themthatjust threatening after-the-fact punishment is not the best way to deter," saidAlexanderVershbow,former deputy secretary general of NATO and a former U.S. ambassador to Russia during the Bush administration.

"You want to try to do things that have a preventive character," he said, noting the policy decisions of the past few days could've been executedmuch earlier."I think there was a sort of hesitation in the White House to do this sort of preventive deterrence or active deterrencenot wanting to be the ones that are escalating the situation."

"TheBiden administration has been incredibly slow in doing what I think is necessary to help Ukraine," said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C.

"I really do believe that the Biden administration should have beenat least since Novembermoving heaven and Earth to get Ukraine additional defensiveweapons that it needs to defendits territorial integrity and national sovereignty."

While it wasunderstandable that Washingtonstarted off with a policy of not wanting to provokePutin, that approachneeded to end sooner, echoed Jim Townsend, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defencefor European and NATO Policy.

"They certainly changed their tactics over the weekend at Camp David, that they're coming out now, showing a little bit more of a military muscle, with promises of more to come," he said.

'Change the tactic'

Biden had met withtop military officials at the presidential retreat, where several options were presented that would shift American military assets much closer to Eastern European countries bordering Russia, the New York Times reported.

"They have finally found, I guess, here in Washington, that it had gone on too long and they didn't want to be playedfor time," said Townsend."And so they did get to change the tactic."

Tensions have long been simmering in the region, in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea. But they hit a boiling point in December, whenRussia hadmassed an estimated 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. As part of de-escalation talks, Russia has demanded that NATO deny membership to Ukraine, along with a reduction of NATO troops and weapons in former Soviet bloc countries.

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinkensaidin a written letterdelivered to MoscowthattheU.S. has made no concessions to the main Russian demands over Ukraine and NATO. It rejected the call to permanently ban Ukraine from joining, and said allied deployments of troops and equipment in Eastern Europe are non-negotiable.

WATCH| U.S. touts diplomacy with Russia but prepared for 'aggression,' says Blinken:

U.S. touts diplomacy with Russia but prepared for 'aggression,' says Blinken

3 years ago

Duration 0:33

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the U.S. is preparing for 'defence and deterrence' if Russia continues its aggression toward Ukraine.

However, U.S. proposals do include the potential for negotiations overthe placements ofoffensive missile and military exercises in Eastern Europe, as well as a broad arms-control agreement.Blinken said he hoped to speak with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovin the coming days.

Politicians from both sides have called on Biden to provide more military aid to Ukraine. In early December, 22 House lawmakers wrote a bipartisan letter to Biden, urging him to immediately provide the military aid Ukraine had requested, including Stinger andJavelin missiles, drones,electronic jamming gear, radars, ammunitionand medical supplies, The Hill reported.

Last week, the Biden administration announced itwill be providing an additional $200 million US in military aid, with the third shipment landing in Ukraine on Tuesday.The delivery included 276 Javelin anti-tank missiles, more than 800 SMAW-D shoulder-fired "bunker buster" missiles, 170,000 rounds of 50-calibre ammunition, as well as bomb-disposal suits, ABC News reported.

Biden has also indicated that along with tough economic sanctions on Russia, he would be prepared to impose sanctions on Putin personally in the event of an invasion.

8,500 troops on 'heightened alert'

While theU.S.has indicated thatsending troops directly into Ukraine is not an option, ithas placed 8,500 troops on "heightened alert" to assist with the defence of NATO allies in Eastern Europea move aimed atbolstering NATO's quick response force.

While putting American troopsat thereadyis an important step to secure U.S. interests and defend NATO allies, Bowmansaid, unless the administration plans to deploy U.S. combat forces into Ukraine to oppose Russia, it won't do much to deter the impending potential invasion of Ukraine.

"That's why the urgent delivery of additional defensive weapons to Ukraine is so important," said Bowman.

The weapons delivered so far, he said, are "wildly insufficient" and not enoughto raise Putin's "cost-benefit analysis"the casualtieshe thinks his troops may incur if he were to invade.

The Biden administration has been working under the "provocation premise," said Bowman, refusing to provideadequate weaponry to Ukraine out of fear it may provoke the Russians to action.

"Anyone who's spent any time on the playground kind of understands how ridiculous that is. Bullies,by definition, bully and theywill continue to bully as long as they think they can get away with it."

Not being more proactive was likely interpreted by Putin as weakness or lack of resolve, said Vershbow."I think it's sort of better late than never that they are moving to this active-deterrence mode, and it might make a difference to the Russians, who do have to calculate the costs and benefit."

Simon Miles,an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and an expert in Russia, agreed thatBiden needs to "up the cost" to Russia,should it invade.

To do that, he said, theU.S. needs to improveUkraine's ability to defend itself, "or at least to impose costs on Russian aggressors, and that that would change the strategic calculus in Moscow."

Miles also said he believesPutin could withstand any personal sanctions, due to his significant wealth.

'Juggling a piece of war'

Some former diplomats have praised how Biden has handled the situation so far.

"I think the Biden administration has done a pretty good job dealing with this Russian manufactured crisis," said John Tefft, who served as a U.S. ambassador to Russia during the Obama administration.

"I think they've done a pretty good job to certainly pull the alliance together."

Steven Pifer, aformer U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said the administration outlined the right frameworkafter the first conference back in December between Biden and Putin, sayingit was prepared to have a dialogue to try to address legitimate Russian concerns.

WATCH| Diplomatic solution remains fragile:

Fragile diplomacy over Russia-Ukraine tensions

3 years ago

Duration 2:16

Hopes for a diplomatic solution remain fragile as Ukraine accepts military support from allies and Russia shows fighter jets heading to Belarus.

But in that meeting, U.S. officials also laid out the potential costs to Russia, and talked aboutpunitive sanctions andincreased Western military assistance to Ukraine, should Putin choose to launch an offensive,Pifer said.

"Iwas part of a group back in December that said,'Yes, but maybe you should think about doing some of these things now.' Sofor example, on greater military assistance, not waiting until the Russians attacked, but do it now.

"And it does look like the administration is doing that."

Pifer also agreed with the administration's decisionto so far avoid pre-emptive sanctions.

"The way the Russians perceive Western sanctions is that once American sanctions come on, they're never coming off," he said."So if you were to put on sanctions now, I think the sanctions would be totally discounted in terms of the Russians calculating what cost will we pay if we go into Ukraine, militarily."

Townsend said the U.S. could have delivered more military equipmentto Ukraine earlier, but overall, the Biden administrationhas played this "about as good as you can"when you're both"juggling a piece of a war and you're trying not to, certainly, provoke a war."

"I think he's probably done the best he could, given the cards that have been dealt to him," he said.