Oregon college shooting won't likely lead to tighter gun control, experts say

U.S. President Barack Obamalooked weary when he responded Thursday to news of yet another mass shooting with the words: "Somehow, this has become routine."

"The reporting is routine. My response hereat this podiumends up being routine," the president said after ninepeople were killedat acommunity college inRoseburg, Ore."We've become numb to this."

• Oregon college shooting: Investigators recover 13 firearms
• Angry Obama says response to shootings has become too routine
• The evil banality of guns in America: Neil Macdonald

Stressingthat the U.S.is not doing enough to prevent gun violence and mass shootings, his speech echoed ones he made after theCharleston,S.C, church shooting in June, the Fort Hood, Texas, shooting in April 2014, the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre in December 2012andthe Aurora, Colo., theatre shooting in July 2012.

Not counting Thursday's tragedy,293 mass shootings have been reported this year, according to the Mass Shooting Tracker website, a crowd-sourced database kept by anti-gun activists that logs events in which four or more people are shot.

The Oregon shooter had multiple guns, police said, all of them purchased legally.

• Oregon college gunman killed himself as officers arrived

Still, experts say thislatest news is unlikely to bring about any change to federal gun laws in theU.S., where even the deaths of 20 elementary students weren'tenough to garner support for tighter gun control.

"In the very short term, the chances of a breakthrough are not good," Gregg Lee Carter, a professor of sociology at Bryant College in Rhode Island and the editor of the bookGuns in American Society, said in anemailedstatement to CBC News.

Obama's failed attempt

Obama'sattempt at gun control came on the heels of the 2012 Sandy Hook shooting inNewtown, Conn.,in which 20 children and six adults were killed.

• Newtown school shooting anniversary a sombre day
• Victims of the Connecticut school shooting massacre
• Newtown shooting victim's mom pleads for gun control

Hisadministration announced its plan on Jan.16, 2013.It centredon twokey elements mandating background checks on all private firearms sales andbanning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines like those used in Newtown.

Both measures were criticized by gun-rights organizations, including the National Rifle Association (NRA).

The Democrats' Senatebillto ban assault weapons was overturned 60-40, with 15 Democrats and every Republican but one voting against it.

A bipartisan billto expand background checks for gun-buyers got support from a majority of senators, but fellshort of the 60 votes itneeded to advance. Forty-one Republicans and five Democrats votedto scuttle the plan.

With little change in Washington's political dynamic,Obamahasn't made a concerted effort to renew the gun control effort since those bills failed.

That's unlikely to change, said Carter,

"The Republicans have significant majorities in both Houses of Congress and the Republican Party platform is clear and strong in defence of gun rights."

Political deadlock and the vocal minority

Robert Spitzer, a political scientist from theState University of New York at Cortland whohas written five books on U.S. gun policy, agrees.

"Under the current politicalatmosphere, [the Republican Party]is not disposed to look kindly on any proposal from Barack Obama,whether it involves gun control, immigrationor any other issues you can think of," Spitzer said.

• By the numbers: Guns in the U.S.
• ANALYSIS|Gun culture runs deep in the U.S. and won't change soon
• Mass shootings in the U.S.: Guns, glory, broken dreams

What's more, he said, the country'spowerful gun lobby is very influential on Capitol Hill.

According to theCenter for Responsive Politics, a non-profitresearch group that tracks U.S.political donations,the NRA and its affiliates spent $984,152 onpolitical contributionsand$3,360,000 on lobbying efforts in2014alone.

"The money certainly matters, but it's not the most important factor when it comes to the the NRA,"Spitzersaid. "It's the money, plus the vocal nature of the people who support theNRA'scase."

A Pew poll this summer foundthe majority of Americans support background checks for gun sales, bans on assault-style weapons and thecreation of a federal database to track gun sales.

ButSpitzersaid publicoutrage over gun violence tends to wane after a particular incident fades from the headlines.The gun-rights lobby, by comparison, is loud and active all year round.

"It has a strong grassroots component all across the country," he said. "A person who supports the NRA will get up off the couch and turn off the TV and do something."

Slippery slope

Gun rightsplayan important role in U.S.culture and history, and a2010 Supreme Court ruling entrenched the Second Amendmentright for individuals to bear arms.

Any attempt at toughening gun laws can be seenbygun advocates as a slipperyslope towards confiscation and tyranny, saidSpitzer.

Even Douglas County Sheriff JohnHanlin, the police spokesman briefing the media following Thursday's shooting in Oregon,is a staunch opponent of gun control.

A month after Sandy Hook,Hanlinwrote a letter to Vice-President JoeBidenthat read:"Gun control is NOT the answer to preventing heinous crimes like school shootings."

Action at the state level

Some measures to tighten gun controlhave passed at the state level.

New York was the first state to respond to the Sandy Hook tragedy with legislation,passing measures in January 2013 to expand thedefinition of banned assault weapons, createa state database for pistol permits, reducethe maximum number of rounds in a magazine and mandatebackground checks on all gun sales.

Connecticutfollowed suit in 2013, passinglegislation adding100firearms to the state's assault weapons andcreating adangerous weapon offender registry.

Last year in Washington state, voters overwhelmingly supported mandatory background checks on private gun sales. Oregon approved similar legislation this year.

A number of states loosened gun laws in the wake of Sandy Hook, including Alabama, Texas and New Jersey, but Spitzer said those legislative changes have mostly been small and symbolic.