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5 questions on New Hampshire's Republican primary

As voters in New Hampshire cast their ballots in the first Republican presidential primary, with front-runner Mitt Romney looking to secure a substantial early victory in the contest to determine U.S. President Obama's opponent later this year, five questions come to mind.

Romney expected to win, but Huntsman vows to 'surprise'

Voters in New Hampshire are casting their ballots Tuesday in the firstRepublican presidentialprimary, with front-runner Mitt Romney looking to secure a substantial early win in the protracted contest to determine U.S. President Barack Obama's opponent later this year.

Just after midnight under the heat and glare of television cameras, residents in the smallcommunities of Dixville Notch and Hart's Locationcontinued a long tradition of beingthe first to cast their ballots, giving Romney an early,but minuscule initial lead.

Romneytied Jon Huntsman with two votes in Dixville Notch, while edging out Ron Paul in Hart's Location 5-4, theNew Hampshire Union Leader reported.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the 2008 Republican candidacy, hasemphasized hissuccessful career inthetop levels of the private sectoras proof he is the best candidate to oversee the U.S. economic recovery.

He has spent most ofhis time in New Hampshire targeting Obamaover hisperformance on the economy, accusing the president ofhindering the country'srecovery from the recessionand creating uncertainty for businesses with his policies.

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"Uncertainty kills small business," Romney toldaNashua Chamber of Commerce audience on Monday in his final day of campaigning.

"Sometimes I don't think [Obama] likes you very much. I love you. I love what you do."

But Romneyalso triggered controversyon Monday with an unscripted remarkabout how he liked"being able to fire people who provide services tome."

The candidatelater said the comment was taken out of context,insisting hemeant only thatAmericans should able togetrid ofhealth-insurance providers who don't provide services they need.

Butit offered an opening for opponents like Huntsman,who suggested Romney showed he was "slightlyout of touch" with the hard economicrealityordinary Americans currently face.

Can Huntsman surprise? Huntsman,a former Utahgovernorwho alsoserved astheU.S.ambassador to China under Obama, has blitzed New Hampshire for months and is banking on a solid showing in the race to keep his campaign alive. He vowedhe would exceed expectationsin the state after his strong debate performance over the weekend.

"Every stop along the way I heard the same thing: 'Something is happening out there,'" Huntsman said to a large crowd of supporters Monday."I dont know whats going to happen tomorrow night, but I do know this: we're going to surprise a whole lot of people."

Outside a Huntsman appearance at a Nashua bakery, Bill McDermott, a registered independent from nearby Hudson,told CBC News it was "quite possible" he'd vote forthe candidate after reading about him and seeing his debate performances.

"I think his position on this issues is more moderate than the others, and there just seems to be something more genuine about him," said McDermott, 73, a retired electronic components sales representative who added he has votedfor Republicans and Democrats in the past.

New Hampshire's primary

While some primaries and caucuses allow independents and members of another party to cast ballots, New Hampshire's primary is a semi-open primary, one in which any voter can participate as long as the voter declares which party's primary he or she will vote in. That means only registered New Hampshire Republicans or residents of the state who have yet not declared a party allegiance can cast a ballot.

New Hampshire's 12 convention delegates are assigned proportionally to the candidates based on Tuesday's primary results and go toward the candidates' delegate total during August's Republican National Convention, where a presidential nominee will be selected.

Democrats are also holding a primary in New Hampshire, but only as a formality, as there are no significant challengers to Obama's bid for the nomination.

Bob St. Jean, from Hooksett, said he was initiallyconsidering voting for Romney, but was changing his vote to Huntsman because he didn't like how Romney challenged his service as ambassador to China under a Democratic administration.

"It's an honour to serve as an ambassador, and I just thought the attack was unwarranted," St. Jean told CBC News.

The latest polls emerging from the state suggested Huntsman had pulled even with Texas congressman Ron Paul, who said in a email to supporters on Monday that a "strong finish in New Hampshire will prove that the momentum is with my campaign."

How big does Romney need to win New Hampshire? Romney is running in his own backyard andis almosta lock to win on Tuesday. It will just be a case of pundits trying tohype a contest that has few doubts, insisting he needs to run up the score to rollinto the next phase of the primary process.

The most recent polls on Monday suggestedRomney's support was dipping below the 40 per cent he garnered in earlier voter surveys. A significant double-digit winis expected to give his campaign momentum heading into the Jan. 21 South Carolinaprimary, where southern candidateslike Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have already been pouring inresources.

Perry, a fifth-place finisher inIowa who all but abandoned New Hampshire after Sunday's debate, has been campaigning in South Carolina while hisopponents made their final pitches here.

Who wins the realracefor second place? Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich and Santorum, who surprised many when he came just eight votes behind Romney in last week's Iowa caucuses, could all claim a significant victoryand revive their campaignswith a second-place finish.

Gingrich, once considered Romney's main challenger, has struggled since being the target of negative ads paid for by Romney backers. Theformer House Speaker's campaignreleased an ad Monday labelling Romney "Mitt the Massachusetts Moderate" and accusing the former governor of raising taxes by $700 millionduring his tenure in charge of the neighbouring state known for its Democratic support.

Ron Paul supporter Keith Myrdek spent several hours waving to drivers on the main street of Manchester, N.H., ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary. ((Andrew Davidson/CBC))
Paul, an outspoken libertarian who has called for legalizing drugs and pulling U.S. troops from foreign bases to help slash the soaring federal deficit, has a highly visible and vocalgrassroots-based volunteer campaign in New Hampshire that has made its presence felt at opponents' events.

"Ron Paul's been fighting for liberty for a long time," Paul volunteer John Mariontold CBCNewsonMonday outside a Huntsman stop. "He representsAmerican principles of individual rights[and] knows the role of government is to protect that."

Is Romney wounded? Romney has been taking heat in recent days from his rivalsover his claimed status as ajobs creator amidreportsthe private equity investment firm he founded, Bain Capital, oversaw a series of worker layoffs at companies it controlled. The firing comment came at a bad time.

He's also been criticized for being too moderate or too inconsistent to lead a conservative party already struggling with its identity after a right-wing Tea Party insurrection in 2010.

"Romney's got no backbone," said Edgar Breisch, an New Hampshire independent whowasundecided betweenbacking Santorumor Huntsmanin Tuesday's vote."Unfortunately,he's going to win because he's got all the money."

Can the party unite around an eventual winnerwho canbeat Obama? The old saying that Republicans fall in line andleavefalling in love to the Democrats could prove just that: old.But New Hampshire's only the first primary, and the convention isn't until August, leaving plenty of time for reconciliation, deals and a vice-presidential candidate that could heal any divide.