Melting sea ice was supposed to help Arctic shipping, but new research says otherwise

New research suggests that rapidly melting sea ice in the Canadian Arctic is making shipping routes less accessible, contrary to previous research that suggested it would create new, shorter routes that could become cheaper alternatives to traditional routes that connect the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

"It's true that the Arctic sea ice in general is showing significant retreat and melting, and will continue to do so, but our new study shows that it's not a simple story," said the study's lead author Alison Cook, who currently works for the Scottish Association for Marine Science.

Cook and her team found that as the thinner ice melts under climate change, centuries-old, thick sea ice from the Arctic Ocean is released.

According to ice charts examined for the study, this thick sea ice is flowing south and creating choke points making places like the Northwest Passage more hazardous and unpredictable.

Cook says the number of voyages in the Canadian Arctic have quadrupled since 1990, and that certain areas are seeing longer shipping seasons. However, the research shows that key routes are being affected by sea ice risk, meaning that the number of weeks that ships can safely travel through the entire Passage is decreasing.

"What we found in the paper is that certain sections of the Northwest Passage are getting choked up by ice," said Canada Research Chair in Environment, Society and Policy Jackie Dawson, one of the paper's co-authors. "So even if other sections are ice free, if you've got these certain sections that are not, it's not a viable trade route."

What sets this research apart is that it isn't based on modelling. It's a reflection of actual ship traffic in the Canadian Arctic between 2007 and 2021 some of the warmest years on record.

Coastal communities rely on shipments for food, supplies

While the thick ice might seem like a temporary problem until it is melted, Cook suggests that's not the case. She points to Stephen Howell, paper co-author and sea ice expert, who describes the sea ice like a reservoir that isn't going away anytime soon.

These changes in sea ice are affecting people who live and work along the Northwest Passage. The research team has worked closely with local communities,almost 90 per cent of which are coastal and rely on maritime traffic for shipments of food and supplies.

A shortening of the shipping season for them will mean they need to rely more heavily on airlifted supplies, which can be costly. In 2018, when extreme ice conditions cancelled resupply by ship to the Nunavut communities of Kugluktuk and Cambridge Bay, it cost almost $4 million to airlift in the dry goods and fuel they needed.

"Those communities are resupplied once a year by ship, so the food costs are very high," said Dawson. "We're still dealing with this challenge of resupply in the communities and need to look at viable technologies to reduce food costs because there's a major food security issue."

Dawson has already started future research with local Inuit community organizations, such as Ikaarvik in Pond Inlet, to work on modelling that accurately represents the area. She explained that often when modelling and future predictions are done, they're based on standards and averages, and the Arctic is a unique regionthat needsdata specific to those communities.

"When you're modelling how many ice-free days there might be in a huge grid cell of 10 kilometres, that's not helpful communities need to know exactly where, industry needs to know exactly where these choke points are," she said. "That's what our paper does here.It doesn't look at this from a big-picture perspective."

Ice breakers can be used to clear paths

Cdric Baumelle, director of marine operations at the Shipping Federation of Canada, said that the shipping industry doesn't see this new information affecting existing operations.

Baumelle explained that destination traffic is the most important traffic in the Arctic because it supplies the villages and mines.

While he said that this might cause further delays to shipments to those communities, the Coast Guard is aware of destination shipping routes and can plan in advance to have icebreakers on hand to clear the paths.

He said there will likely be a growth in destination traffic to the Arctic for mining purposes and to export goods. Those routes are already well-established and there are specific vessels with specially trained crews that know the area.

To switch from a primary route like the Panama Canal to the Northwest Passage, however, is not something he sees as a viable option in the near future. It would require huge investments in new ships, increased icebreaker presence and training programs for captains and crew.

Baumellealso saidthat other operational challenges include thevisibility issues caused byArctic sea smog.

"As a sea captain, you're going to reduce the speed of your vessel," he said, adding that these restrictions negate any time that would have been saved by taking the Northwest Passage.