Trump tariffs would hit Canada 'faster and harder' than most: former top Trudeau aide

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's former principal secretary Gerald Butts says Donald Trump's proposed 10 per cent tariffs on imports would hit Canada "faster and harder than just about anyone else," given the close trading relationship between the two countries.

The former U.S. president and current Republican candidate has called for a minimum tariff of 10 per cent on all imports entering the United States. Sources have told CBC News that Trump's allies have offered no assurances of a reprieve for Canada.

In an interview with CBC's The House, Butts told host Catherine Cullen that he's "not sure there's going to be a way of talking Donald Trump out of this."

The House12:53Bracing for the U.S. election result

When Donald Trump was elected the first time, officials here scrambled to figure out how to deal with him, and it wasnt always pretty. Gerald Butts was principal secretary to Justin Trudeau for much of the Trump presidency and shares insights on what a Trump or Harris presidency will mean for Canada.

"So it's more how do you prepare for that, and how do you prepare for the inevitable global economic fallout that's going to come from a Trump presidency?" he said.

As Trudeau's top aide, Butts tookpart in multiple meetings with Trump during his presidency.

He said that while he would like to tell people that Trump's behaviour is "an act for the cameras, it's not. The person that you see in front of the cameras is the same person that you see behind closed doors."

Butts said Trump is not afraid to wield access to the U.S. market to get what he wants out of negotiations.

"He believes the winner of all negotiations happens to be the person who has the most leverage," he added.

Canada already has startedtalks with members of Trump innercircleabout avoiding new trade tariffs if he's elected. The federal government haswarned of retaliation on U.S. goods if the tariffs are imposed on Canada.

Butts said Trump "is a relationship person," so it's "important to have a cordial and working professional relationship with the people around him."

Butts said he spent time with Trump's son-in-law andadviser Jared Kushner and Trump's one-time trade czar Robert Lighthizer who has cited past U.S. tariffs as success stories.

"I'm not sure who those people will be in those roles next time, but developing that personal relationship is really important because [Trump] leans on it," Butts said. "It's the modus operandi from his time in the private sector."

Canadian officials have reached out to both the Harris and Trump campaigns to seek a congratulatory phone call with the winner, according to a senior government source.

Harris win could also bring challenges

Butts warned that, even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the election, Canada can't just "kick back and think that everything's going to be rosy."

"If [Harris] gets elected, she'll get elected because Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania voted for her," Butts said, referring to the three critical swing states where Trump and Harris have focused their campaigns.

"If you look in Congress who represents those areas, [they]tend to be relatively protectionist."

Butts saidmany Canadians grew up under a relatively relaxed U.S. foreign policy that embraces free trade and open borders with Canada but the political consensus supporting that policy is fading and "hasn't been replaced by anything yet."

Experts have told CBC News that a Harris victory likely wouldmean a continuation of the status quo.

While Canada and the U.S. have had trade battles under President Joe Bidenover such matters astariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, those experts say a Trump presidency presents a bigger threat because of his fondnessfor tariffs.

Butts said certain questions are still "relatively up in the air," including whether a Harris administration wouldwant to renegotiate the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement that's up for review and renewal in 2026.

Trump promises mass deportations

Trump also has promised to pursue mass deportations of undocumented immigrants if elected.

Experts have told CBC News that a crackdown in one jurisdiction can have the effect of pushing migrants into another. In this case, widespread deportations in theU.S.could drivemigrants into Canada.

Jason Kenney, who served as immigration minister under former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, said Canada needs to take that prospect "very, very seriously."

The House12:57Trump threatens mass deportations of migrants

Former Immigration Minister Jason Kenney tells host Catherine Cullen why he believes Trumps promise of mass deportation of migrants should be taken very, very seriously and whether it could lead to thousands ending up at Canadas border if Trump is re-elected.

"We can't cope with the current burden in our [immigration] system," Kenney toldCullen. "If you add significant new pressure, it could completely crater our ability not just to legally process additional claims but to house people."

In 2017, large numbers of Haitians crossed through Roxham Road near Hemmingford, Que., putting the formerly obscure border crossing in the spotlight.

In March 2023, Canada and the U.S. agreed to change the Safe Third Country Agreement to cover the entire land border, rather than just formal crossings.

Kenney acknowledged the changesbut said that "if you have a large number of people just pouring across various illegal border crossings, we don't have the ability to police that."

"It's something that at the very least should be on our radar screen," he said. "Previously, history indicates this is likely to happen with a potential election of an administration committed to large-scale removals."

In a statement issued to CBC, a spokesperson for Immigration Minister Marc Miller said that "our government has worked with many administrations and will continue to work withwith the U.S. and partners across our governmenton all matters related to our shared border."