Federal panel lists 35 'plausible' future threats to Canada and the world

In a new report,a think-tank withinEmployment and Social Development Canadacites35 "plausible" global disruptions that could reshape Canada and the world in the near future.

The Policy Horizons Canada (PHC) paneldraftedthe list and then asked more than 500 stakeholders within and outside government to suggest which ones were more likely, when they might happen and how one might trigger others.

The authors of the report point out that the list is an exploration of theoretical notguaranteed threats. They say that even "seemingly distant or improbable" calamities can become reality and thinking aboutthem helps governments create "robust and resilient policies."

Leading the report's top ten listthose threats that could have the greatest impacts and are most likely to happenis the threat to truth.

PHC's reportsays that in as little as three years, the world's "information ecosystem" could be flooded with misinformation and disinformation created by both people and artificial intelligence (AI).

It warns that algorithms designed to engage audiences emotionally rather than factually could "increase distrust and social fragmentation," isolating people in "separate realities shaped by their personal media "

"Public decision making could be compromised as institutions struggle to effectively communicate key messaging on education, public health, research and government information," the report says.

The second and third threats on the top ten list areenvironmental: ecosystem collapse due to loss of biodiversity and extreme weather events overwhelming our ability to respond.

In five to six years, the report says, a collapse in biodiversity "could have cascading impacts on all living things, putting basic human needs such as clean air, water and food in jeopardy."

It says that impacts on key industries like farming, fishing and logging could lead to "major economic loss," leaving people unable to "meet their basic needs."

The report warns the increasing frequency of wildfires, floods and severe storms could destroy property and infrastructure, displacing millions of people and worsening the mental health crisis.

AI could run wild

In as little as four to five years, cyber attacks could disable critical infrastructure and billionaires could use their influence to run the world, the PHC warns.

The report says that cyber attacks on critical infrastructure could leavegovernments struggling to deliver services and compromise access to essential goods.

And in five years, the report says, the super-rich could use their influence to shape public policy and impose their values and beliefs on the world, "bypassing democratic governance principles."

"As their power grows, billionaires could gain warfare capabilities and control over natural resources and strategic assets," the report says. "Some might co-opt national foreign policy or take unilateral diplomatic or military action, destabilizing international relations."

JeremieHarris, head of Gladstone AI, a U.S.-based advisory firm which studiesthe consequencesof artificial intelligence development, said the heightened risks tocybersecurityareworth highlighting, given the rapiddevelopment of AI technology.

"We're always very careful every time we talk about AI: It's the promise and the peril, they come hand and hand," he said in an interview.

Harris noted that as AI models get more advanced, they could potentially execute more complex cyberattacks, more cheaply than before. The potential risks of technology like AI can be hard to wrap one's mind around, he added.

He saidthere have been some efforts to control the pace and nature of AI technological development such as an executive order from the U.S. president.

Harris said that when discussing AI, it'simportant to balance the potential positives with therisks.

"We have to walk and chew gum at the same time."

The PHC report suggests that insix years, AI could run wild. "This rapid development and spread of AI could outpace regulatory efforts to prevent its misuse, leading to many unforeseen challenges," the report says.

AI-generated content could end upmanipulating and dividing nationalpopulations, drivingvalues-based clashes, the report warns. In a worst-casescenario,it adds, AI could compromise critical infrastructure, putting pressure on vital resources and accelerating climate change.

Ranked seventh on the report's list of top-ten threats is the prospect ofwidespread shortagesof vital resources like water, sand and critical minerals. In as little as eight years time, the report says, this scarcity could lead to "cascading impacts on human health and social stability."

"Prices of resources could become volatileand economies unstable, as once-abundant vital resources become scarce," the report says.

The competition for what remains, it adds, could cause instability and "devolve into armed conflict, driving nations into war over resources."

Coming in at eighth on the listis what the report describes as the normalization of downward social mobility.

"With housing becoming increasingly unaffordable and work arrangements more precarious, socioeconomic conditions for Canadians could decline from one generation to the next," the report says.

The threat todemocracies

In as little as five years time, the report warns,people could "lose hope in improving their lives," creating economic and social stress "as the extremely wealthy continue to accumulate a larger share of the wealth."

Coming in at ninth place is the possibilitythat Canada's aging population, labour shortages, increasing rates of disease and funding restrictions could lead to a collapse of the health care system within six years, PHC says.

"If Canadians cannot count on reliable access to effective health care, there may be increased mortality rates, distrust in fundamental government services, damage to Canada's global reputation, impacts to immigrationand social upheaval," the report says.

David Jones, apolicy expert with theCanadian Centre for Health Economics, saidit's useful to look atpotential threats to the health-care system, but he doesn'tbelieve that a system collapse would come in a sudden, dramatic fashion barring another pandemic-like event.

He said that rather than a "flip" into a total collapse, a better way to think about the issue was to consider that parts of the health-care system were already in crisis, such as rural emergency rooms, and to imagine an "increasing, gradual building of pressure."

Jones flagged a number of persistent and difficult-to-solve problems that are plaguing the system whichcould intensify over the coming years, including long waitlists, limited access and the broader pressures of an aging population in Canada.

Jones said a number of incremental changes across the system were resulting in improvements, from data sharing, digitization of health records, the proliferation of health-care teams and preliminary use of some artificial intelligence to reduce administrative burdens.

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Last on the list is the prospectof a breakdown in democratic systems. The report notes that authoritarian governments around the world outnumberdemocracies and "the struggle between the two ideologies is messy in many countries."

"Democracy is showing signs of decline around the world. Even countries with a long history of democratic values and systems are facing challenges to their democratic institutions," the report says.

"As society fragments into distinct groups, each with its own perception of the world, it could become impossible to build national consensus and design policies, programsand messages that serve the population."

The report's conclusion says that being aware of future threatscanhelp governments prepare and mitigate risks.

"While the disruptions in this report are not guaranteed to take place, they are plausible and overlooking them may carry risks in various policy areas," the report warns.

You canread the report here.