The Pollcast: Quebec's electoral countdown begins

The CBCPollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst ric Grenier, explores the world of electoralpolitics,political polls and the trends they reveal.

In a little less than one year, Quebecers will go to the polls in what is shaping up to be an election hotly contested by four political parties.

Quebec Premier Philippe Couillardshuffled his cabinet on Wednesday to try to give his Liberals their best shot at securing re-election. But after governing the province for 12 of the last 14 years, are the Quebec Liberals running out of steam?

• Couillard turns to fresh faces in pre-election cabinet shuffle
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Polls suggest that the Liberals are still the favourite to win next year's election. But after winning the 2014 provincial vote by more than 16 percentage points, the Liberallead has dwindled to just four points. That could send a potentially volatile minority government to Quebec's National Assembly.

Whether the Parti Qubcois or the Coalition Avenir Qubec will prove to be the Liberals' biggest challengeis unclear. The centre-right, federalist CAQ under former PQ cabinet minister Franois Legault has been the second-ranked party in most polls and pulled off a byelection upset last week in a safe Liberal riding.

But the CAQalso appears to have a ceiling, having rarely cracked 30 per cent in the polls.

The PQ has been floundering, its vote eaten away by the sovereigntist, left-wing Qubec Solidaire.

Support for independence has softened in the province and PQ Leader Jean-Franois Lise has accordingly promised not to hold a referendum in the first mandate of a PQ government. Nevertheless, the PQ has not led in any poll in over two years and some surveys put it on track for its worst electoral performance since it was founded.

To help break down the political landscape in Quebec as the countdown to the 2018 election begins,Pollcast host ric Grenieris joined by Christian Bourque, executive vice-president of the polling firm Lger.

Listen to the full discussion above or subscribe to the CBCPollcast and listen to past episodes.

Follow ric Grenierand Christian Bourque on Twitter.