Conservative caucus meets in Winnipeg, a city the party needs to win back

The Conservatives lack seats in some of Canada's largest cities. The party is holding its national caucus meeting this week in one of them to try to change that.

Gathering in Winnipeg to plan strategy for the fall sitting of Parliament, the Conservative caucus is missing a few members from the Manitoban capital. The party was shut out of Winnipeg in the 2015 federal election, losing in all eight of the city'sridings after having won six of them in 2011.

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The Conservatives took 30 per cent of the vote across Winnipeg. That markedthe party's worst performance in the city since 1993when the combined efforts of its predecessors the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties garnered them just 25 per cent of votes cast.

That was also the last time the Liberals did as well as they did in 2015, with 53 per cent of the vote. The Liberals took seven Winnipeg seats in 2015 with the New Democrats (14 per cent of the vote) won one.

It was a sharp reversal of fortunes for the Conservatives, who had improved in every election from 2004, topping out at 47 per cent of Winnipeg's vote in 2011. The losses in Winnipeg were just some of those suffered by the Conservatives in urban centres throughout the country as the Liberals made gains.

A few of the losses were close run things. The Conservatives fell just 2.8 points short of the Liberals in KildonanSt. Paul, while Lawrence Toet had just 61 fewervotes than the New Democrats' Daniel Blaikie in ElmwoodTranscona. But even in that riding, the NDP only managed to lose fewer votes than the Conservatives did to the Liberals, who gained 30 points across the city compared to 2011.

Rebuilding some of those links that helped the Conservatives win the city in 2006, 2008 and 2011 is one of the goals that led Andrew Scheer, named leader in May, to bring his party's caucus to Winnipeg.

Liberal support drooping on Prairies

It is not clear whetherthe Conservatives have begun to turn the tide in Manitoba, but there are indications that Liberal support has dropped.

The most recent polls conducted in Manitoba alone it is usually grouped with Saskatchewan in surveys date from May and June, giving the Conservatives 38 per cent support on average. That suggests an increase of just one point since 2015.

But the Liberals were down five points to an average of 40 per cent.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also seems less popular. Polls conducted since Scheertook over the Conservative leadership haveawarded Trudeau an average approval rating of 42 per cent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, compared to 44 per cent disapproval. Throughout 2016, the prime minister's split was 49 to 41 per cent.

Scheer lacks name recognition

Nevertheless, Scheer still lacks name recognition in the region even if he represents a riding in Saskatchewan. Those same polls give him an average approval rating of 32 per cent with 21 per cent disapproval on the Prairies, leaving just under half of respondentsshrugging their shoulders.

But the Conservatives can take some hope from the success of Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservatives in Manitobalast spring. The Tories won 17 of Winnipeg's 31 seats in that election, indicating the blue brand still has appeal in the city.

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CBC Polls Analyst Eric Grenier crunched the numbers

Without a Winnipeg seat in the House of Commons, any gains in the city would be welcome for the Conservatives. They do have some prospects.

The swing in the polls in Manitoba would suggest that the two ridings in the northeast of the city, KildonanSt. Paul and ElmwoodTranscona, are easily within the Conservatives' grasp.

CharleswoodSt. JamesAssiniboiaHeadingley in the west of the city, which the Conservatives lost by 13 points two years ago, might be just out of reach.

Some big swings needed

The three ridings in southern Winnipeg that the Conservatives won in 2011 would require a much bigger swing towards the party before they become potential pickups.

But if the Conservatives are going to defeat the Liberals in 2019, or even reduce them to a minority government, the party will need to make significant urban gains including in a place like Winnipeg.

There are no further prospects for growth for the Conservatives in Manitoba, as they already hold the five rural seats in the southern portion of the province, while the party is not a factor in the northern Manitoba riding held by Niki Ashton, a candidate for the NDP leadership.

If the Conservatives are to return to office one day, they will need to return to Canada's cities. Winnipeg should be high on that list.

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