Fundraising data suggests Bernier could benefit most from ranked Conservative leadership vote

The Conservative leadership race will be decided by a preferential ballot, so the candidatewith the broadest support and widest acceptability stands the best chance of winning. An analysis of fundraising data in the campaign suggests Maxime Bernier shares the most contributors with other candidates, giving him a potentially decisive edge.

But Bernier'sadvantage mighthave been disrupted by the entry of Kevin O'Leary into the race in January.

Only moneyraised up to the end of 2016, before O'Learyannounced his candidacy,has so far been released in Elections Canada's tally.

The party'suse of a preferential ballot to choose its next leader makes it particularly difficult to predictthe outcome. The candidate who comes out on top on the first ballot may not end up winningif he or she isn'tthe second, third or even fourth choice of enough voters.

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Party members will be able to rank the candidates on their ballot. Ifnonereceives a majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votesisdropped and those votes getre-distributed to his or hersupporters' second choices. This process continues, with candidates being dropped and their votes re-distributed, until one candidatereaches the majority threshold.

There is no reliable polling data available to gaugewhich candidate is best-placed to garner the broadsupport needed to win.

But fundraising data is one substitute. A high proportion of donors will be party members eligible to vote on May 27 and many of these donors have given money to more than one candidate, providing an indication of which candidates are likely to also rank highly on their ballot.

Bernier or bust

Bernierhas raised the most money so far in this campaignand he's done so with contributionsfrom 21 per cent of donors who've written a chequeto more than one candidate.

He was the candidate who shared the most contributors with Steven Blaney, Kellie Leitch and Andrew Scheer, and was especially popular amongdonors to MichaelChong, Erin O'Toole and Lisa Raitt.

But while Bernier had the most multiple-candidate donors, his share of them was disproportionately low comparedto his total number of contributors. Bernierreceived 39 per cent of all donations made to leadership contestants in 2016, almost double his share of those who contributed to multiple candidates.

If a large proportion of Bernier'ssupporters aren't contributing to other candidates, it suggests the race might be "Bernier or bust" for them.

Leitchhas limited growth potential

Though Leitch was the beneficiary of the second-most multiple-candidate donors at 18 per cent, she was a less popular choice than Bernierfor supporters of every candidateexcept Chris Alexander.

This is a problem for Leitch because it suggests that as candidates drop off the ballot she wouldn'tbe able to overtake Bernier (or would fall behind him).From one round to the next, he would get a larger share of the second-choice votes.

In fact, the rival with whom Leitchshared the most contributors (39 per cent of her multiple-candidate donors)was Bernier.

Lemieux, Trost could give Scheer boost

Saskatchewan MP Scheerwas the recipient of money from 13 per cent of donors who gave to more than one candidate, despite receiving only seven per cent of all contributionsmade to contestants in 2016.

Much of this cross-candidate support came from two fellow social conservative candidates: Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux. But while Scheer'scampaign has largely avoided issues important to this faction of the party, Trost and Lemieux have embraced them.

Trost ranked behind Bernier and Leitch, with contributionsfrom 18 per cent of Scheer's multiple-candidate donors, while another seven per cent of these Scheer supportersgave to Lemieux as well.

If Scheer finishes ahead of both Trost and Lemieux (heis one of the overall fundraising leaders and has the most endorsements from within the party establishment), he should garner a large share of their supporters when theydropoff the ballot. Scheer shared 21 per cent of Trost'smultiple-candidate donors more than any other contestant while 33 per cent of Lemieux'sshared donors gave to Trost.

With the exception of donor connections involving Bernier, Leitch and Chong who have been in the race the longest and so have amassed the most donors the triangle of support between Scheer, Trost and Lemieux was the most significant. This suggeststhe social conservative vote could play an important role in deciding the leadership if it moves towards one candidate.

Unclear path for Raitt, O'Toole, Chong

The fundraising data doesn'tshow any particularly clear paths for Raitt andO'Toole, who arerunning as consensus centrist candidates,or Chong, who is running as the "progressive" conservative of the race.

None of these three candidates did disproportionately wellwith the supporters of any of their rivals, with the exception of Chong with Andrew Saxtondonors.ButRaitt and O'Toole did share somewhat more donors with each other, suggesting that whoever ends up higher on the ballot will likely benefit from the other's departure.

Still, Raitt and O'Toole shared more donors with Bernier and (to a lesser extent)Leitch than they did with each other meaning Bernierand Leitch couldstill be the biggest beneficiarieswhether it'sRaitt or O'Toole who drops off the ballot first.

The O'Leary factor

The data suggests the outcome of the vote could greatly depend on the order in which the candidates drop off the ballot,but also that Bernierhas the simplest path.His ballot-to-ballot growth would be least affected by variations in that order.

But O'Leary might have changed all that. His appeal to other candidates' supporters is impossible to gauge at this stage. He might eatinto Bernier'ssupport, either as a first preference or further down the ballot. He might becomethe consensus second or third choice of some of Bernier's rivals.

And that could have the effect of levelling the playing fieldbetween the "safe" second choicesand the polarizingfront-runners proposing big changes ofdirection for the Conservative Party.

What does Conservative fundraising data tell us about the race?

8 years ago

Duration 4:33

The CBC's polls analyst Eric Grenier looks at who has the edge in the race for the Conservative leadership so far.