What to watch as Trudeau, Scheer face test in 4 byelections

Voters in four ridings spread across the country go to the polls Monday in federal byelections that will provide a midterm report card on Justin Trudeau's Liberal government and present another tough electoral test for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

Two of the ridings holding byelections in Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador were last held by Liberals.The other two ridings,in Saskatchewan and British Columbia,were won by the Conservatives in 2015.

What to watch as Trudeau, Scheer face test in four by-elections

6 years ago

Duration 4:46

The CBC's polls analyst Eric Grenier breaks down the races, and looks ahead to Tuesday's special election in Alabama.

The byelection contests are happening in:

• BonavistaBurinTrinity in Newfoundland, last held by Liberal Judy Foote.
• ScarboroughAgincourt in Ontario, last held by Liberal Arnold Chan.
• BattlefordsLloydminster in Saskatchewan, last held by Conservative Gerry Ritz.
• South SurreyWhite Rock in B.C., last held by Conservative Dianne Watts.

The Liberals are expected to hold onto the Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador seats, whilethe Conservative seat in rural Saskatchewan is also a stronghold for the incumbent party.

As the New Democrats did not put up strong results in 2015 in any of the four ridings, they are unlikely to play a significant role. Nevertheless, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will be assessed in part by how his party performs in these first byelection campaigns to be called after he became leader(two earlier contests occurred just weeks after he wonthe party's leadership on Oct.1).

The outcome of the four byelections will not have any major impact on the next general election to be held in 2019. But there are nevertheless some things to watch that could provide clues as to how the parties are doing with the electorate today and what that might mean for 2019.

Can the Liberals pull off another win?

Both Trudeau and Scheer have visited South SurreyWhite Rock twice, highlighting the importance both leaders are placing onthis suburban seat southeast of Vancouver.

Dianne Watts, who resigned as a Conservative MP to run for the leadership of the B.C. Liberal Party, won the riding by just 2.5 points in 2015. But despite the close margin two years ago, South SurreyWhite Rock has been astronghold for the Conservatives and its predecessor partiessince the 1970s.

This time, the Conservatives are putting forward former MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who represented an adjacent riding before her defeat in 2015.

The byelection will test the Liberals' prospects in British Columbia, one of just two provinces along with Quebec in which the party has more support today than it did on election night in 2015. The Liberals have put forward a high-profile candidate in Gordie Hogg, who represented the provincial riding of SurreyWhite Rock as a B.C. Liberal MLA for 20 years.

Polls suggest support in B.C. has swung enough between the Liberals and Conservatives to overturn the 2.5-point margin from two years ago. Another loss here for Scheerwould be the second under his leadership after his party failed to hold the formerly Conservative seat of Lac-Saint-Jean, Que.in an October byelection.

How Scheer, Singh appealto suburban voters

Like South SurreyWhite Rock, the contest in the Toronto riding of ScarboroughAgincourt will also gauge thesuburban vote.

The Liberals' Arnold Chan won the seat, a very safe Liberal riding in the 1990s and 2000s, by 14 points in 2015. Chan died earlier this year and his widow, Jean Yip, is the Liberal candidate.

Toronto was swept by the Liberals in the last election and the party is looking to repeat the feat in 2019. The Conservatives might be targeting seats further afield in the Greater Toronto Area, but ScarboroughAgincourt was one of the rare ridings in which the Conservative vote actually went up in 2015.

If the Conservatives' DasongZouholds those gains from the last election or improves upon them itwould suggest the party could win back some of the seats it lost two years ago.

The New Democrats have little at stake in the riding, where they took just 7.9 per cent of the vote last time. But Singh was born in Scarborough and the party is banking on him to win it new supporters in the GTA, where he previously held a seat in the provincial legislature.

Though the NDP traditionally struggles in byelections in which the Liberals and Conservatives are vying for the win, a worse showing here than in 2015 could raise some questions about how Singh is resonating and disappoint Conservatives who are hoping that theNDP will draw support away from the Liberals in the region.

Do incumbents hold their vote in strongholds?

The Newfoundland and Labrador riding of BonavistaBurinTrinity was won by the widest margin in the country in 2015 when Judy Foote secured it for the Liberals by 72 points. Churence Rogers, a local mayor and the Liberals' candidate, might have a tough time matching that score.

The only question is just how much of the Liberal vote turns out and whether the party can maintain the sky-high support it had in the riding in 2015. The Conservatives' Mike Windsor will be looking to beat the 10.1 per cent score he put up two years ago.

It is a similar story in BattlefordsLloydminster, which now-retired Conservative MP Gerry Ritz won by 43 points in 2015, and routinely won by 35 points or more over the last 20 years. Rosemarie Falkwill carry the Conservative banner this time.

The party has tended to do well in strongholds in byelections, increasing its support by seven to 11 points in three Alberta ridings it won in landslides in 2015. Falk'sscore will be held up against that standard.

But all eyes will be on the results in South SurreyWhite Rock.

If the Liberals win in B.C., Justin Trudeau's party will have made a net gain of four seats in byelectionssince 2013 a number not seen for that party under any leader since Mackenzie King.

The last leader, however, to go down two seats in byelectionswas Stphane Dion, a few months before he led the Liberal Party to defeat in 2008's federal election. Scheer will have to hold on to South SurreyWhite Rock to avoidmatching that record.