Moving from fringe to 4th place, PPC complicates the Conservatives' path to power

At a recent campaign event, Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole couldn't quite bring himself to say the name of the man who could end up thwartinghis shot at power.

People's Party of Canada (PPC)Leader Maxime Bernier has gone from leading a small fringe group with tepid support toheadingupa right-wing party that, according to the CBC Poll Tracker, could have the fourth-highest share of the voteon Sept. 20.

After the last election campaign, aCBC News analysisshowed that even with its rather dismal level of support the PPClikely cost the Conservatives seven seats in the House of Commons by splitting the vote(six seats went to the Liberals, one to the NDP). With polls suggesting PPC support is nowwell above the 1.6 per cent of the vote it got last time, itsimpact could be even greater in 2021.

When asked by CBC News recentlywhat he plans todo to blunt Bernier's momentum and preventa vote-splitting scenario that could hand Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau another term, O'Tooledidn't say much and never mentioned Bernier by name.

O'Toole was asked three questions about the former Conservative cabinet minister-turned PPC leader at a Sunday press conference and duckedevery one of them.

"I remind Canadians, if you're tired of a Liberal government that's constantly in scandal, corrupt at its core with Mr. Trudeau's constant ethics investigations,there's one team and one leader that can replace him Canada's Conservatives," O'Toole finally said when pressed.

WATCH: O'Toole is asked about rising People's Party support

Conservative leader is asked about the rising support in polls for the People's Party and its effect on the right-of-centre vote

3 years ago

Duration 1:04

Erin O'Toole spoke with the CBC's John Paul Tasker at a stop in Port Credit, Ont. on Friday.

His party's campaign material insists Canadians only have four choices in this election. "If you don't care about creating Canadian jobs and standing up to the Chinese CommunistParty, you have three parties to choose from. If you do, you only have onechoice Canada'sConservatives," reads a recent press release.

While polls suggest some PPC support is coming from first-time or infrequent voters, there's no question the PPC is drawing at least some support from former Conservative voters.

"The Conservative party is no longer a conservative party,"Craig Mostat, an-exConservative supporter of the PPC from Edmonton, toldCBC News.

"They are bending over backwards to do everything the Liberals are doing," he said, referring to the party's more moderate brand of conservatism under O'Toole.

An outgoing Conservative MP, David Yurdiga, is backingBernier and Shawn McDonald, the local PPC candidate in his Fort McMurray, Alta. riding.

"We're the true conservatives. We're bringing people home,"McDonald told the conservative online media outletTrue North.

WATCH: O'Toole is asked about a Conservative MP endorsing Bernier

O'Toole reacts to the prospect that the former Fort McMurray-Cold Lake Conservative MP could endorse the People's Party of Canada

3 years ago

Duration 0:54

The CBC's John Paul Tasker asks Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole what he thinks about former Fort McMurray-Cold Lake Conservative MP David Yurdiga, who is expected to endorse People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier and the local candidate in that riding. O'Toole responded by talking up the new Conservative candidate running in that riding, Laila Goodridge.

Some pollsters notably those using more anonymous collection methods, like interactive voice response (IVR) show higher levels of PPC support than those firmsusing live telephone agents or an online forum to survey the public on their voting choices.

While the country's major polling firms can't agree on just how much support the PPC enjoys, it's clear that the party ismuch more of a force now than it was in the2019 campaign.

"There'sdefinitely a lot more people jumping on the PPC train even compared to two months ago. It's definitely getting bigger," saidRodolpho Menjivar, an infrequent Alberta voter who has voted Liberal in the past but plans topick the PPC this time.

"People are looking for another option because they don't like what everyone else is doing."

Philippe Fournier, a polls analyst with 338Canada, said the PPC's strength could spell trouble for the Conservatives in close races in Prairie cities like Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. In 2019, the party only narrowly won seats like Manitoba's CharleswoodSt. JamesAssiniboiaHeadingley and Alberta's Edmonton Centre over the Liberals.

"The PPC could get more votes than the Bloc Quebecois in this election,which was unfathomable only one year ago," Fournier said. "We can say with confidence that many of their supporters used to vote Conservative."

Failure to launch then a sudden resurgence

Bernier's dramatic break from the Conservative party in 2018 was a troublingdevelopment for some Conservativeoperatives who feared a fractured right-centrevote would guarantee Liberal victories for years to come.

At the time, however,most Conservative insiders especially those who knew him from his time as a Harper-era cabinet minister were dismissive of Bernier's potential politicalimpact.

They feared a splintered votebut they didn't think Bernier was well-equipped to get a new party off the ground and compete meaningfullyin enough ridings to make much of a difference.

The PPC'spoor showing in2019Bernier lost the Beauce seat he'd held for years bolstered the naysayers.

But the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a political realignment, breathing new life into a party that looked all but dead.

Public health measures like lockdowns slowed the spread of the virus and likely saved lives but they also prompted anger and frustration among some Canadians who saw their livelihoods destroyed as economic and social life ground to a halt.

The PPCbecomes the no-lockdowns party

The federal Conservative Party and some of its provincial counterparts, like the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, were generally deferential to public health officials who called for restrictions a sensible position during a pandemic but one that also generated backlash from people who bristle at limits on their freedoms.

The PPC welcomed those voterswith open arms. A party promising a radically smaller government with fewer regulations was suddenly embraced by people who saw government as an oppressive force.

Bernier, a libertarian who has long railed against government overreach, became a champion of the "no more lockdowns" crowd, routinely appearing at well-attended protests against these restrictions.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's push for a vaccine mandate for federal public servants and the travelling public has also given Bernier another cause as he warns of what he calls Canada's descent into "tyranny."

"We are the only national political party against vaccine passports. We believe in freedom of choice everyone must be able to decide for themselves," Bernier said a recent rally.

O'Toole is opposed to Trudeau's proposed vaccine mandate but has said he'd let provinces introduce their ownvaccinepassport programs.

Bernier's pitch to voters also includes a plan to "defund" the CBC, balance the budget quickly, cut all foreign aid, "say no to the UN" a body he calls "a dysfunctional organization" and pull out of the Paris climate accord.

"More and more people are coming on our side. You can count on us," Bernier said.

WATCH: PPC Leader Maxime Berniertaken into custody by RCMP

People's Party Leader Maxime Bernier taken into custody by RCMP in Manitoba

3 years ago

Duration 0:25

People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier was handcuffed and put in the back of an RCMP vehicle after attending a rally against COVID-19 restrictions in St-Pierre-Jolys, Man., on Friday afternoon.

But it's Bernier's strident opposition to the idea of vaccine passports credentials people vaccinated against COVID-19 can show to businesses to make everyday activities safer thatattracted Menjivar.

"The particular thing I like about them is that they're a no to vaccine passports and mask mandates. I don't believe in mandatory stuff forced on people and not being able to go places if I don't have a vaccine,"he said.

"People just want to be left alone and not be called the bad guy for not getting their vaccine. We just want to live and be able to do everything we did two years ago."

Fournier said the polls suggest it's Bernier's anti-vaccination passport rhetoric drivingthe party's rise.

"We know from polls before the election that anti-vaxxers were about eight to 10 per cent of the Canadian population," Fournier said. "He is taking his message to new heights to appeal to these people.

"And if he goes from 1.6 per cent in 2019 to seven or eight or more per cent in this election, it would be an incredible achievement."