'Punishment' or procedure? Pessimism lingers over efforts to lift China's canola ban

As China'srefusal to import Canadian canola seed casts a shadow over the spring planting season for the second year in a row,Parliament's new special committee on CanadaChina relations is hearingdifferent explanations for what's going on diplomatically.

On Feb. 5,Conservative MP Chris Warkentin asked Dominic Barton, Canada's new ambassador to China, whether Beijing moved to blockCanadian canola imports last Marchin retaliation for the diplomatic relationship "going sideways."

"I do think that was a punishment," Barton testified, joining the ranks of other China-watchers who see canola seed shipments being held hostageasBeijing leverages its massive consumer market to get what it wants.

Officials from Global Affairs Canada did not connectthe same dots when they appeared before the committee the week prior.

"There is no clear link between [export] downtrends and the arrest of Meng Wanzhou," said Franois Rivest, the executive director for Global Affairs Canada's greater China division, when asked by Calgary Conservative MP Stephanie Kusieif China was retaliating for Canada'sDecember 2018 arrest of the Huawei executive wanted for extradition to the U.S.

Nearly a year ago when China moved to block shipmentsof canola seed from first one, then two of Canada's major exporters Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canadian officialswould "roll up our sleeves and work with the Chinese officials to demonstrate that canola should continue to flow safely."

Canada hoped that if it could prove, with evidence, that there are no pests or other contaminants in Canadian shipments, the Chinese wouldresume purchasing.

Since then, federal and provincial teamshave focused on "technical discussions," including face-to-face talksin BeijingDec. 18-20, with the promise of more to come in 2020.

Technical discussions cansolvetechnical problems. They got beef and porkshipments flowing again last November, for example.

But on canola, is Canada as NDP MP Jack Harris askedthe GAC officials "going through the motions here?Or is there a genuine effort to resolve this?"

"We're very much sticking in our swim lane relative to the technical aspects and the merits of it," said Fred Gorrell, the assistant deputy minister for international affairs at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. "I would leave that for others to decide."

Engagement's helpful, but ...

"What we saw in [Barton's]testimony was a clear message that our sector has been targeted for something that has nothing to do with canola," said Brian Innes, vice president of public affairs for the Canola Council of Canada.

"We are not seeing progress in the technical discussions. It's good that discussions were had, but I have not heard a reference to a specific development coming from those discussions."

When the Chinese wantedto get Canada's attention, they knew exactly whereto hit. Political tensionbetween Ottawa and the Prairie provinces is running high. The plight of the canola sector only makes it worse.

China is the world's largest importer of oilseeds. Canada (specificallyWestern Canada)is the world's largest canola exporter.

The playbook is familiar. The Chinese cited quality issues the last time theyblockedcanola. Freeingthat trade in 2016 took years of political engagement. Then-trade minister Chrystia Freelandtook the Chinese a jar of canola seed from her father's farm to makeher point.

"Engagement at multiple levels" is helpful, Innes said.

Now that Canada has an ambassador in Beijing again,canola producers want Barton to keep focusing on market access for agri-food something Barton told MPs he was "passionate" about.

The thaw apparent in recent comments coming from the Chinese foreign ministryapplauding Canada'sresponse to the coronavirus outbreakcould help tounstick other files.

In the meantime, China is feeding its appetitefor oilseeds in other ways, and Canada's exports are down by 70 per cent. That's a billion-dollar problem for Innes's sector and the Canadian economy writ large.

With a federal budget on the horizon, what do canola farmers want?

"Our sector doesn't believe ad hoc bailouts actually help," Innes said. Producers want the federal government to help them diversify their markets bysupporting the biofuels industry at homeand hunting for new markets abroad.

'One foot in front of the other'

Barton's predecessor, John McCallum, saw his postingend when his comments strayed from the official line. So why couldBarton contradict federal officialson canola?

"Sometimes it requires different messages to be given at different levels," saidMeredith Lilly, an associate professor of International Affairs at Carleton University who witnessedChina's commodity diplomacy as a trade adviser inStephen Harper's office.

Lilly said she suspects that Barton, as a political appointee, is allowed to speak more freelyabout the connection between Meng Wanzhou's case and the plight of Canadian canola growers.

But "since there's very little else we can do, we should at least do what we can," she said.

Officials have a duty to canola farmers to "put one foot in front of the other" and carry on with the technical work of debunking myths about the quality of Canada's crop, Lilly said.

"What else are officials supposed to do? Just pack up and go home and wait?"

Other countries would notice if Canada let false accusations stand. And the technical evidence Canada collects to support canola shipments should be useful in the case Canada launched against China at the World Trade Organization last September.

The geopolitics may be out of the canola industry's control, but these WTO cases sometimes unmask political motives disguised as trade barriers and bring about remedies.

It's a long game, Lilly said. But doing nothingwould be "politically difficult to withstand.

"How could a government justify not taking a position based on an accusation this is all around Ms. Meng?"

'There's momentum'

Because China joined Canada and 15 other members last month in backing an alternativeto theWTO's now-paralyzed appellate body, there's a path to sanctioned retaliationshouldthings eventually come to that. The Chinese have compliedwith pastWTO rulings.

Canada's WTO complaint has led to "constructive discussions," Barton told the committee."At the end of the day, results matter. But there's momentum."

Results were exactly what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave Bartoncredit for within weeks of him assuming hispost, as the Chinese market re-opened to Canadian meat products.

"I had nothing to do with that. The prime minister [was] very nice to say [that]," Barton told MPs.

Re-establishing market access is possible now, he said, because the two sides have resumed formal communications: theyargue and debate again, instead of rote"speech reading" back and forth.

Canadian meat imports were"stuck" over a "mistake" in the paperwork, Barton said.

This wasnot an "arbitrary shift" by Chinese officials because solving the problem was very much in China's interests, he said. Theongoingswine fever outbreak has devastated China'sdomestic herds, makingquality pork an expensive commodity for Chinese consumers.

While Barton said he can now see "lots of green shoots" in Canada's relationship with China, it's not clear yet that the canola industry can share his optimism.