How will the Tokyo Games influence the next Olympics of the COVID-19 era?

The Tokyo Games have provided Beijing a preview of hosting an Olympics during a pandemic, which shouldhelp the citynavigatethe challenges of COVID-19 when itwelcomesathletes next year.

Experts sayWinter Olympics organizerswill beconsidering the transmission risksinvolved in winter sports, toolsto track and monitor infections, as well as vaccination ratesamong visitors and local residents as they prepareforthe second Olympicssince the COVID-19 pandemic began.

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"We have learned so many lessons out of this Tokyo Olympics," said Kenji Shibuya, a prominent public health expert who has been critical of decisions made by organizers of the first Olympics in theCOVID-19 era.

Aformer director of the Institute for Population Health at King's College London, Shibuya says the Tokyo Olympics have provided data on things like how COVID-19 can spread within Olympic housing facilities all ofwhich Beijing can review and learn from.

"That kind of assessment what went wrong, what was successful will be very important," said Shibuya.

That informationshould be sharedwith Beijing and the rest of the worldin a transparent manner, he said.

"I think it's important to look forward and share the information across the board and learn lessons and move on," he said in a recent CBC News interview.

Next Games just months away

Beijing's Winter Games are less than six months away, a consequence of delaying the Tokyo Olympicsby a year.

One advantage Beijing has overTokyo is that there is time for more athletes to be vaccinated ahead of the Olympics.

Increased vaccination coverage among athletes makes things "much easier," thoughthat is complicated by varying levels of access to vaccines among nations, said Shibuya.

Jrg Fritz, an associate professor in McGill University's department of microbiology and immunology, said it would be "desirable" if everyone participating athletes, event staffand any spectators was vaccinated.

Vaccinationskey, maybe not mandatory

Fritz said monitoring the vaccine status of the participants was key tolimitingthe spread of the coronavirus.

"We have seen from large-scale events that have been monitored in the U.K. concerts with many thousands [of] spectators where only fully vaccinated people are allowedthat spread is very, very low," Fritz said in an email. He pointed to a spike inCOVID-19 infectionsblamed on the Euro soccer tournament as an example of what can happen when vaccination status is not factored into event planning.

Vaccination wasn't a requirement for athletesatthe Tokyo Games.

Tara Kirk Sell, asenior scholarat the U.S.-based John Hopkins Center for Health Security anda former Olympian, does not expect that tochange in Beijing.

"I don't know if a requirement will be put in place," Sell told CBC News via email."There are a lot of things to balance there."

In response to a query about the planned vaccination protocol in Beijing, the International Olympic Committee's media relations team told CBC News in an emailthat "thePlaybooks for the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022 have not yet been published."

Nearly all the Chinese athletes who competed in Tokyo were vaccinated, according tothe Chinese Olympic Committee.

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Athletes and officials looking ahead to the Beijing 2022 Olympics are trying to focus on sports, but the next Games are already surrounded by concerns about COVID-19 and controversy over accusations against the Chinese government of human rights abuses against ethnic minorities, including Uyghurs.

Earlier this year, the International Olympic Committee reached an arrangement with the Chinese Olympic Committeeto make Chinese-made vaccines available to incoming athletes.

Shibuya said Chinahas proven its ability to tamp down COVID outbreaks through testing,lockdownsand quarantines. He think that puts Beijing in a good position to handle suchchallenges at the Olympics.

"They are very good at suppressing transmission, soI think they are in a much better position compared to Japan, in terms of holding an Olympics," he said.

What about fans?

The Tokyo Games have been notable for many reasons a lack of fans in the stands being just one of them.

Shibuyasays it would have been possible for Tokyo to have welcomed fans to its own Gamesif local coronavirus transmission rates had been lower.

"If Japan could have suppressed the local transmission with vaccination and massive testing, I think this Olympics could have had spectators," he said. Vaccine passports and testing aretwo tools that could have been used, he said.

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There are nearly no spectators in the stands at the Olympic Games due to a state of emergency, which was declared in Tokyo, making these games especially unusual for athletes.

"It's not an issue aboutwhether or not we should have spectators,it's about how to minimize the risk with science," he said.

Fritzsaid "every effort should be made" to allow fully vaccinated spectators to watch events at the next Games, with plans in place to monitor any infections that follow.

Sell said allowing fans from abroad to come to Beijing "will require a better handle on COVID and vaccination."

The influence of delta

At present, many parts of the world are dealing with climbing COVID-19 case counts linked to the highly contagious delta variant.

That is a concern for organizers in Beijing, as the variant has been detected in nearly half the regions of China, according to a New York Times report.

"The delta variant is certainly a challenge and there is increasing danger that in a few months we might have a newer, even more vicious variant spreading," said Fritz. He said making vaccines mandatory for athletes and others would make sense, given the rate of COVID-19 transmission is much higher among the unvaccinated.

Fritz also said it is unclear how well some of the vaccines used in China protect people against the delta variant.

"There is little data available; what we know for alpha [is that]the two approved vaccines in China have lower protective effects than the ones approved in Canada," said Fritz. "This aspect certainly will come into play."

'Basic strategies' to hold

Shibuya said time-tested strategies to curb infection will remain in place, whether Beijing is dealing with the delta or another variant.

"The contagiousness is different and the possibility of airborne transmission would be higher for the delta," he said."But basicventilation, mask-wearing, andproper distancing, together with massive testing and vaccinationI think the basic strategies remain the same."

Shibuyasaid he expects a "more science-based" risk assessment used in Beijing that takes into account the nature of the sporting events in question.

At the Tokyo Olympics, for example, the risk of spreading infection during an outdoor event like sailingisvastlydifferent from the risks involved inan indoor event like gymnastics," Shibuya said.