On debate stages, Ontario party leaders' political baggage will be front and centre

With two upcoming debates expected to shake up the Ontario election, the political baggage each of the four major party leaders is carryingcould soon be front and centre on the campaign trail.

And there is no shortage ofbaggage to go around.

The debate on northern issues isTuesday afternoon, with a second face offscheduled for May 16.

Here's a look at howthe leaders'pasts could affectthe campaign,based in part on discussions with party operatives who weregranted anonymity to speak openly with CBC News.

Doug Ford

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford is heading into the June 2 election in a radically different position than in 2018.

He had secured the leadership just eight weeks before the campaignandquestions hovered over his candidacy. Whether the folksy firebrandof the divisive "Ford Nation" brand had the shrewdness to be premier was an open question for some voters.

Four years and a global pandemic later,"he's not a wild card anymore," says Tamara Small, a professor of political science at the University of Guelph.

"He has a track record now. No one can say, 'He can't be a premier,' because, well, he has been."

Part of that record isthe polarizing wayshis government responded toCOVID-19. It could hurt the PCs with some voters like health-care workers and families with school-aged children or loved onesin long-term care.

There was also the first 18 months or so of Ford's term.His government waged a seemingly constant battleas it slashed spending and scrapped Liberal programs. Polling suggested itbled support from Ford.

• You can catch CBC's livestream of the debate beginning at 1 p.m. ET Tuesday

But there's a well-known maximthat campaigns are not run on what happened yesterdaybut what is going to happen tomorrow.

One PC strategist said Ford's camp is satisfied with the polling and metrics related to the pandemicand is happy to let the other partiestry to litigate the last four years.

Andrea Horwath

June 2 will be Andrea Horwath's fourth election as Ontario NDPleader. That could be good or bad dependingon who you ask.

Horwathcarries strong name recognition. In recent polling conducted by Ipsosfor Global News, shewas the only leader witha net-positive favourabilityscore. About32 per centchose Horwath as their first choice forpremier, second only to Ford, who secured 41 per cent.

The NDP is trying to position her as the only candidate for voters who wantFord out of office. The campaign says it sees a path to power through holding seats won in 2018 and flipping 10 or 11 ridings where the party lost by five per cent or less to PC candidates.

The partypicked up 40 seats in the last election. The question is whether that was a high water mark, given those gains came amid a near-total collapse of the Liberal vote.

One party sourcepointed to polling in late May of 2018 that had New Democrat supportat over 40 per cent before it dropped heading into election day. That suggests there is room for the NDP to grow its seat count, the source said.

Her fourth election as leader also means Horwath has fought three others without ever landing the top job. While the NDP message is that she is an experienced MPP and premier-in-waiting, both the PC and Liberal campaigns are trying to paint a picture of a leader who will always come up short.

• What questions do you have about the upcoming Ontario election? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca

"Most voters know that she's had three cracks at it and has not been able to fulfil the promise of what she's been running on," says Don Guy, owner ofPollara Strategic Insights. Guy ran the Ontario Liberal campaigns from 1999 to 2011 and also served as chief of staff to former premier Dalton McGuinty.

"Most leaders get two terms and then it gets pretty tough after that. And she's had three."

Steven Del Duca

Elected leader 10 days before Ontario declared its first COVID-19 state of emergency and without a seat at Queen's Park, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca has spent the last two years quietly rebuilding the party after its disastrous 2018 showing.

His rivalsoften highlight that Del Duca held two cabinet posts in thehistorically unpopular government of former premier Kathleen Wynne. ThePCs even launched a website meant to tie him to Wynne'slegacy and never miss an opportunity to reference the "Del Duca-Wynne Liberals."

Small saysthere is an "information vacuum" around the Liberal leader, and both the PCs and NDPare trying to fill it.

During his four-year tenure as transportation minister Del Ducawas embroiled incontroversy over a new GO station proposed in his home riding. Ontario's auditor general concluded that Del Duca hadused his political influenceto ensurethe stationwas approved despite a weak business case.

Then in 2019, there was the private pool the Del Ducas had built too close to public parkland without the necessary permits, which he called an honest mistake resultingfrom a miscommunicationwith a contractor.

But it's not yetclear whether most votersknow or especially care about either incident. For his part, Del Duca has brushed off attempts to saddle him withWynne'stime as premier.

"I think over our time in office, we accomplished a great deal. I recognize we were not a perfect government," he said at a campaign stop in Kitchener last week. "Election campaigns are not about looking in the rearview mirror."

And that is why his team isframing Del Duca as the leader of a "new" Liberal Party that has undergone agenerational upheaval.

The challenge will be swaying potential voters to see him as the best alternative to Ford. Del Ducacarries little name recognition outside of the GTA and Liberal circles, and the pandemic only further sidelined him from public view.

Mike Schreiner

Green Party Leader Mike Schreinerconcedes that going fromone seat in the legislature to forming government is likely an insurmountable task. But he's been singularly focused on growing the party's base of support and fielding candidates that could boost the Greens' influence at Queen's Park.

A primary challengeis convincing voters that they offer a visionthat addresses more than just concerns about the environment and climate change.

On that front, Schreiner has already rolled out a growing list of affordability-related commitments, including promises aimed at boosting the housing supply and moderating home prices.

But his environmental bent could serveSchreiner well, saysCristine de Clercy, a professor of political science at Western University. That's partlydue to the Ford government's checkered record on green issues.

"I think a lot of first-time voters in the 18 to 25 rangecould be attracted to the Greens and could turn out for them," she said.

The debates could prove essential for convincing more Ontarians that the Greens are capable of someday forming government.

"The debates are going to be a very important lever for him to become more broadly known across the province and to show voters he hassome idea of where he would lead the province if if he would ever be elected premier," de Clercysaid.