As schools reopen in Ontario's hardest-hit regions, experts urge province not to lift COVID restrictions

Weeks ofonline learning are coming to an endfor thousands of students and parentsas schools in Toronto and neighbouring Peel and York regions reopen the last in Ontario to do so after the Christmas break.

Manymedicalexperts including a committeeledby Toronto's SickKids Hospital have called for schools to be the priority as the Ontario government decides when and how to bring the hardest-hit regions out of COVID-19 lockdown.

As they watch the alarming rise of more contagiousvariants of the novel coronavirus, some public health officials and epidemiologistsare warning that in areas with high community transmission, schools should be the only places to reopen in the immediate future.

The return to school means students, parents, teachers and staff are leaving their homes and moving about in the community more than they were before, said Dr. Lawrence Loh, Peel Region's medical officer of health.

"When you make a change like that in the community, you usually want to wait at least one or two [virus] incubation periods to see what impact it has on case numbers."

Although strong COVID-19 precautions including physical distancing and mask wearing have proven to be quite effective in limiting transmission in schools, the emergence of more transmissiblevariants of the virusis a new factor that needs close monitoring, Loh said.

He's asking the provincial government to hold off on lifting other COVID-19 restrictions in the region, including reopening non-essential businesses, for two to four weeks.

Concerns about a 'third wave' of virus

So far, the Ontario government hasn't announced its plans for lifting restrictions in Toronto, Peel or York, except to say that the current stay-at-home order will remain in effect for all three hard-hit areasuntil "at least" Feb.22.

However, if the province allows any degree of reopeningat that time,it will be less than a week after the return to school not long enough to get any increased variant spread under control and try toprevent a dreaded "third wave" of the virus, Loh said.

WATCH| Calls to pause reopenings as coronavirus variants detected across Canada:

Calls to pause reopenings as COVID-19 variants detected across Canada

4 years ago

Duration 2:06

There are calls for provinces to pause some reopening plans after several COVID-19 variants have been detected in all 10 provinces. Experts predict these variants could be dominant within weeks, with potentially dire consequences.

"I feel for our small businesses," Loh said. "[But] if we just hold on for another couple of weeks, another few weeks, we may be able to avoid a third wave altogether with thevaccines coming in.

"Ifwe do see a third wave in our community ... another shutdown to save lives and protect the health-care systemis not going to be weathered well by our small business colleagues."

If case numbers rise after schools open, Loh and other experts said,it will be much easierto track the source of infection and identify variants of concernif other potential community sourcesaren't thrown into the mix at the same time.

"We have this tendency to try andmove too many levers at once ... and then we struggle to know what it is that'scausing an increase in cases if and when we see an increase in cases,"said Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Toronto's Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

"Everybodywants schools to open and stay open," she said. "And so the way to do that is to open the schools and give that a bit of time ... see what happens with the case counts, make sure that things are headed in the right direction. And then you can start reopening other aspects of oureconomy."

Toronto's medical officer of health, Dr. Eileen de Villa,also expressed concern about easing restrictions too quickly, particularly as students return to in-class learning.

"We are in a position of great uncertainty with respect to variants, but what we know is alarming," de Villa said in a public statement on Feb. 8.

"I understand the value of preparing for the time we can lift restrictions. From a public health perspective in Toronto, that time is not now."

Unlike Loh, de Villa has not specifieda minimum time frame between opening schools and easing other restrictions.

Economy can reopen 'with a lot of care'

Dr. KarimKurji,medical officer of health for York Region, agrees that the more transmissible coronavirus variants are "the big wild card just now."

But now that long-term care residents the most vulnerable people in this pandemic have been vaccinated and strict COVID-19 safety protocols have been put in place in schools,Kurjitold CBC News, he thinksit would be possible to safely open parts of the region's economy as early as Feb. 22.

"Many of ourresidents have really been suffering ... [including] those that are the owners of small businesses," he said.

"We really have to assess the whole community as being our patient," Kurji said."I think in this instance, you know, we are finding the appropriate path forward so that we reopen the economy, but with a lot of care and with a lot of vigilance."

In addition, even if businesses were allowed to open on a limited basis, hesaid, the public health message to York Region's residents would still be to "stay at home unless it's really essential for you to go out."

That's something the Ontario government, including Premier Doug Ford, have also repeatedly said while talking about easing restrictions.

But telling people to stay home while opening more places for them to go creates a confusing, mixed message, Tuite said.

"It's sort of say one thing and do another thing," she said. "It's a communicationdisaster."