Sask. has 2nd highest testing in Canada. Why don't we have enough data to closely project the peak?

TheCOVID-19modelling numbers presentedWednesdayby the Saskatchewan Health Authoritywere eye-popping.

Under the best-case scenario, SHAisplanningfor153,000cases of COVID-19 infections and 3,075 deaths. Under the worst-case scenario, the province is projected tosee 408,000 infections and 8,370fatalities.

Projections out the same day from Alberta, with quadruple Saskatchewan's population,noted our neighbourwas expecting 400deaths under abest-case scenario and 3,100 deaths at worst. Even in Ontario, with13 times Saskatchewan's population, the projected COVID-19 deaths are between 3,000 and15,000.

The SHA took great care to explain that its "dynamic modelling" isn't predictive but is meant to provide information it can use to support Saskatchewan's response and preparedness to deal with the pandemic. But no one can blame citizens for gulping at thethought that a case total that stood at 271 on Wednesday could balloon to 400,000, or that the current toll of three deaths could hit more than 8,000.

The problem is that Saskatchewan's modelling is based on three scenarios based on the outcomes in other regions, among them China and Italy, unlike Alberta's projections based on data collected within the province.

The worst-case,scenario1(based on early Canadian estimates)assumes one COVID-19 infected person infecting four others even under current testing, physical distancing andcontact tracing protocols. At the peak, this would require 4,265 patients to be in an acute care hospitalsimultaneously, with 1,280 of them in intensive care.

The best-case,scenario3(based on Wuhan)wouldsee one infected person infecting 2.4 othersand result in390 COVID-19 patients inanacute carehospital simultaneously at the peak, with 120 in ICU.

Disquieting that Sask. is tight-lipped

Premier Scott Moe and chief health officer Saqib Shababsay the goal is for Saskatchewantodo better than scenario 3, even though Moe has no plans to change current levels of COVID-related restrictions to anything resembling the kind of ultra-draconian measures imposed on Wuhan residents by China.

While one needs to recognize that our health-care administrators and politicians are doing their best to tackle a horrific pandemic that's seemingly changing hour by hour, it's disquieting that Saskatchewan is sticking with its tight-lipped approach when it comes to sharing information.

Shahab's rationale for notidentifying the community of an infected person protection of privacy is weak, especially when the community hasseveral hundred people.

At a time when the government is ordering people to restrict their movement and stay away from loved ones, more openness about the extent of the problem can go a long way toward buying complianceinstead of relying on fines or jailing.

Given the experience of jurisdictions such as Quebec, Ontario and Alberta that had casesearlier, does Saskatchewan really need to baseits pandemic modelling onItalyor onWuhan, a jurisdiction so vastly different from North America in its governance and social policies?

Why doesn't Sask. have data to project peak?

Good on Moe for asking provincial officials to increase testing for COVID-19 to 1,000 a dayas soon as possible, and then to 1,500 a day by the end of April.And it's great that medical students will be asked to help with tracing those who've been in contact with infected personsand nursing studentsasked tosupplementtheir ranks if necessary.

But if Saskatchewan already does the second-highest amount of COVID testing in Canada, as Moe said, then why doesn't the health authority have enough homegrown data needed tomore closelyproject the peak of the infection in Saskatchewan?

Alberta, using its own data,projects thatitwillreach peak pandemic levels in late Mayunderits best-casescenarioand early May if things get worse.

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Surely, with the available testing data and knowledge gleaned from elsewhere in Canada, SHA can do a better job of its modelling than to rely on Italian or Chinesedataand provide a more preciseestimate thanreachingthe peak herecould take"weeksor months."

COVID-19: Modelling suggests were in it for the long haul

5 years ago

Duration 5:04

What mathematical simulations tell us about how the COVID-19 pandemic will play in the real world.

Certainly, public behaviour has a great bearing on how quickly the pandemic is brought under control, but the premierhasstressed that a majority of citizens are heeding the calls for social distancing, hand-washing and other measures.

The lack of transparency from officials about what is happening with COVID-19in communities across the province(exceptin larger centres)belies the message, "We're all in this together,"and undermines public trust.

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