Sask. Party, NDP polling numbers closest in 5 years: Angus Reid survey

A new online survey suggestsSaskatchewan's Opposition New Democrats have significantly narrowed the gap between themselves and the governing Saskatchewan Party for the first time in nearly five years.

According to results of an Angus Reid Institute poll released Thursday, the NDP had a 39 per cent approval rating among decided voters polled,compared to the Sask. Party's 48 per cent.

That gap has narrowed since an October Angus Reid poll, whichfound 35 per cent support for the NDP and 52 per cent for the Sask. Party.

Pollsters list Premier Scott Moe's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the main reasons why fewer than half of decided voters said they would cast their ballot for the Sask. Partyif an election was called today.

"This doesn't spell inherent trouble for the Sask. Party but it is an exception to the norm," said Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl, adding the parties generally sit roughly 20 percentage points from each other in the polls.

Typically, the shift is driven by what voters expect from their government and what's perceived to be delivered, which often traces back to poor communication or a policy failure, she said.

"We're seeing people a little bit more turned off towardthe Saskatchewan Party and this particular government in a way that we haven't seen in awhile," said Kurl.

"How much ofthat is a souring mood for people two years into the pandemic and how much of that is political, I think, remains to be seen."

Thenational online survey was conductedfrom Jan. 7-12, with asample of 5,002 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. A margin of error cannot be assigned in online polls, but forcomparison purposes, a probability sample of thatsize would have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The survey included 474 respondents from Saskatchewan, of whom415 were decided voters.

NDP hopeful, Sask. Party unfazed by the numbers

NDPLeader Ryan Meili said he and his team are feeling hopeful about the party's rise in the latest poll results.

"It speaks to the fact that Saskatchewan people are paying attention. They're watching who has failed them repeatedly on something so central as protecting the public during a pandemic," he said.

"[The Sask. Party] have let Saskatchewan people down and those polls are reflecting that."

Meanwhile, the Sask. Party said polling numbers aren't currently top of mind for its members.

"We are not particularly focused on polls at this point in the electoral cycle," the party said in an emailed statement Thursday.

"But [we] are pleased to see that, according to this poll, Premier Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party enjoy the support of 48 per cent of Saskatchewan voters, which is the highest level of support of any provincial party anywhere in Canada."

According to the Angus Reid Institute, the Sask. Party hasn't dipped this low in voter approval since 2017, which is when then-premier Brad Wall made a series of deeply unpopular budget cuts.

Three years later, in 2020, the Sask. Party won the election handily, limiting the NDP to 13 of the 61 seats.

With the next provincial election more than two years away, Kurl said it's likely the numbers will continue to fluctuate.

"There's a lot of time. A year is a lifetime in politics, and there's several years left on this mandate," she said.

"A trend line is not always a predictor of what comes next; it just shows us what's been happening."

Saskatchewan voters are next expected to head to the ballot boxes in October 2024.