Sask. population could grow 500,000 by 2043: Statistics Canada

Saskatchewan's population is expected to keep growing in the decades ahead, buta lack of "natural growth" will mean a continued reliance on immigration to make it happen.

A new report from Statistics Canada is the first population projection reportproduced by the agencysince the COVID-19 pandemic began. It shows that Saskatchewan's immigration numbers bounced back in 2021 after a dip the previous year due to the pandemic closingborders.

The projections outline a range of scenarios. In addition to low- and high-growth estimations, it also contemplates a range of medium-level growth possibilities depending on factorssuch as birth rates, immigration ratesand life expectancy.

For Saskatchewan, the 2021 population of 1,179,800 is projected to grow to anywhere from 1,348,400 to 1,696,700. That represents a range of 12.3to 43.8 per cent.

Looking behind the numbers

According to Statistics Canada demographer Patrice Dion, the big population-growth variables in much of Canada these days are immigration, lower fertility ratesand an aging population.

He acknowledgedthat Saskatchewan has made gains in the "natural growth" rate, which measures the difference between births and deaths in the province each year. Like many countries, Canada's birth rate has been dropping, hitting an historical low in 2020 at 1.4 children per woman. Life expectancy is also expected to be an "unavoidable issue," as the number of people outside of their employment years grows.

Dion said the natural growth rateis a major reason why immigration has been the largest catalyst for population growth in recent years.

"If you were to stop immigration you don't have many young people who will enter the working age. So you will constantly need more immigration to renew your populations," he explained.

Saskatchewan also continues to grapple with negative rates of interprovincial migration, meaning more people are moving to other provinces from Saskatchewan than vice versa. Saskatchewan has not fared well in this category over the last decade, with a net average of about 5,000 people lost to other provinces each year.

Dion does not expect much to change in that area.

The number of Saskatchewan residents aged 85 or older is expected to continue growing. The projections in Statistics Canada's report anticipates a growth of 95 to 143 per cent by 2043.