Wastewater samples in Sask. show COVID-19 spike in Regina, peak in Saskatoon

A scan ofsewage samplein four Saskatchewan cities shows an exponential increase in COVID-19 in Reginaand a decrease in some of the province's northern cities, according to wastewater analyses from the University of Regina andUniversity of Saskatchewan.

The latest report from the University of Regina says current viral levels of SARS-CoV-2are more than 250 per cent higher than peak levels during the Alpha wave in April 2021. That meansthere is 2.5 times more COVID-19 present in Regina, according to the study.

"Initialanalyses indicate that the levels will not decrease within the next reporting period," a post on the University's Facebook page read.

"Compared to the previous week, the viral levels have increased significantly and remain high."

Wastewater data can helppredict COVID-19 caseloads in Saskatchewan cities. Saskatchewan shifted from reporting daily COVID-19 data in early February to weekly reporting.

COVID-19 case numbers are skewed, even with weekly reporting, because of testing restrictions, making it difficult for experts and the public to track COVID-19 in the province.

In Saskatoon, analysis released by scientists from the university's Global Institute for Water Security on Mondayfound there was a 25.5 per cent increase in the COVID-19 viral load of Saskatoon sewage samples while that load dropped in Prince Albert and North Battleford.

It's a relatively small shift in Saskatoon's viral load of COVID-19, given the city's 742 per cent increase reported a week ago, however, toxicology professor John Giesywrote in an email thatSaskatoon is in "uncharted " territory.

He said the data runs almost exactly two weeks ahead of hospitalizations, meaning that the high rate of COVID-19 found in the University's wastewater analysis foreshadows a looming spike in hospitalizations.

"The current wave driven by Omicron BA-2 is still going up and we are now at the greatest value we have ever seen," he said.

"If there is any good news, the rate of increase seems to be slowing."

Both Prince Albert and North Battleford had a reduced COVID-19 viral load, with researchers calculating a 16.5 per cent decrease and 20.1 per cent decreaserespectively.

Treatment plant operators in Prince Albert said that the average daily flows in the past week were about 16 per cent more than the last report because of meltwater and the decrease needs to be read with that in mind.

Saskatoon, Prince Albert and North Battlefordcities based their change percentage on the average of three individual daily measurements compared to the weekly average of the previous week. Reporting for this data inSaskatoon ended on April 13, Prince Alberton April 11 and North Battleford on April 9.

In all fourcities, the highly contagious Omicron BA.2 subvariant made up more than 98 per cent of the COVID-19 viral load found in sewage samples.

In the previous week's report, the subvariant made up less than 90 per cent of all samples found in Saskatoon, Prince Albert and North Battleford. Analysis in Prince Albert only found the BA.2 subvariantwas in 61 per cent of the samples.