'It's very, very difficult to stop': Atlantic Canada's rural-urban divide growing, says APEC

The rural-urban divide in Atlantic Canada, and in P.E.I. in particular, is growing, says the head of theAtlantic Provinces Economic Council, and there's no sense trying to stop it.

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APEC studied the population data from the 2016 census released last week by Statistics Canada, and released its findings in a document, When Everyone Moves to Town, on its website.

Demographics and population shifts are like glaciers they move pretty slowly, but you do have a pretty good and clear idea where they're going, and it's very, very difficult to stop. Finn Poschmann, ACPEC

"The Atlantic region is much more starkly rural, as a share of the population," said Finn Poschmann, president and CEO of APEC.

Also, while the population in the Atlantic provinces has been growing more slowly than in the rest of Canada, the distinction between small centres and larger ones is "really, really sharp," said Poschmann.

While P.E.I. urban centres, including small towns of more than 1,000 people, have grown by four per cent since 2011, rural areas of fewer than 1,000 people have shrunk by at least two per cent.

'Nasty side effect'

Why is city living more popular these days in Eastern Canada?

An aging population, low fertility rates and lack of farm succession are all part of it, Poschmann said.

"So we're seeing farm consolidation fewer people owning and operating farms, and retiring owners migrating either to centres where it's easier to find services or out of province altogether," said Poschmann.

As productivity has improved over the decades, farms have been able to operatewith fewer people, he noted.

The pressure to close small schools in shrinking rural areas is "pretty universal" he notes, as the economics change.

"It can have a nasty side effect," Poschmann noted. "If you're thinking about moving to a rural area because you like the lifestyle, and you're planning to have kids, the lack of a school can keep you out. So it can feed an unhappy circle," he said.

Making sure there are good facilities including schools within a "reasonable" travel distanceis important to maintaining populations in rural areas, he said, adding an hour to an hour-and-a-half commute is not unusual for students across Canada, but worth it for quality education.

Amalgamation can save rural communities money and can benefit communities if it is done well, Poschmann said.

'Keeping every tiny town open'

His advice to governments or groups looking to change population patterns?

"Demographics and population shifts are like glaciers they move pretty slowly, but you do have a pretty good and clear idea where they're going, and it's very, very difficult to stop and I don't recommend trying," Poschmann said.

More practical, he said, is to focus on quality of life issues, make the best use of technology to deliver services, but "not to obsess over keeping every tiny town open. It doesn't work very well."

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