Here are your chances of pulling the ace and winning 750K

Chase the Ace fever has struck the Charlottetown area, but what are the odds of you winning the big prize?

The North River Fire Department and Kingston Legion, co-sponsors of a popular P.E.I. Chase the Ace raffle, expect to sell at least 50,000 tickets for Saturday's draw.

• Chase the Ace jackpot reaches $750K

That's the same number of tickets they sold last week. Whoever wins the weekly draw will pull one card from the 12 remaining in the deck. If that card is the ace of spades, they will win an estimated $750,000.

So what are your odds of winning the grand prize?

Way better than 6/49

The calculation is not that difficult. If 50,000 tickets are sold, the chance of you winning with one ticket are 50,000-1.

But then you also need to pull the ace for the grand prize. With 12 cards left, that's 12-1. Multiply the two to get your odds of pulling the ace after winning the draw, for total odds 600,000-1.

Sounds pretty steep, but it is way better than 6/49, where your chances are one in 14 million, which is like trying to stab a large beetle on a football field while blindfolded.

Can you stab a softball?

If one in 14 million is like trying to stab a beetle on a football field, what does 600,000-1 look like?

Let's stand you back on the edge of that football field. I'm putting a blindfold on you. I've got a softball, and I'm going to toss it out onto the field. Or I might give it a good hard throw. So long as I land it on the field. Now, here's your knife. Stab it.

What if I buy a whole bunch of tickets?

For every ticket you buy you get to change the number on the right hand side of the equation: so 600,000-2, 600,000-3, etc.

In terms of the football field, it's one stab with the knife for every ticket you buy.

You might consider buying a crazy number of tickets - like say, 50,000 which at a cost of $250,000 might seem worth it for a good shot at three times that amount.

Assuming everyone else buys the same number of tickets, that's even odds of you winning the raffle, but it's then still 12-1 against you pulling the ace. The total odds are still 24-1 against. Not really a good shot.

If this discussion of the odds of winning the big prize has dampened your enthusiasm remember the money is going to a good cause.

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