Watery canal, balmy forecast worry Winterlude fans

Camryn Harper loves Ottawa winters.

Every February, she takes her little brother to see the Winterlude ice sculpturesand says every single time, he's mesmerized by the frozen creations.

Last year was the first time in recent memory Harper missed out onWinterlude's biggest attraction as unseasonably warm, snowy weatherkept the Rideau Canal Skateway closed to the public all winter.

With more balmy weather on the horizon this season, she's worried it could happen again.

"I'm incredibly concerned," Harper said."That's so upsetting. That's something I really missed."

The National Capital Commission (NCC), which manages the skateway,said it's too early to speculatebut the forecasts don't look promising a month beforeWinterlude.

According to the NCC, the canal opens for skating once the ice is at least 30 centimetres thick. That generally takes 10 to 14 consecutive days of temperatures between 10 C and 20 C, a range that includes Ottawa's average January temperature.

Though the next several forecast nightly lows are around or below that10 C mark, there shouldn't be a single day of sustained temperatures in that range over the next seven days, according toEnvironment Canada's forecast.

NCCspokesperson Sofia Benjellounsaid last yeartaught organizers a lot about how milder winters affect the skatewayand a partnership with Carleton University is helping the commission adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Specifically, research has warned about shorter skating seasons because of warmer, wetter winters with more freeze-thaw cycles, which is what happened last year. The more people do to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the less severe the changes.

Adapting the canal includes clearing snow and flooding the surface to help build up ice faster, but that can only happen once the the ice freezes to a minimum thickness right now, much of the canal is open water.

Organizers look to 'weatherproof' Winterlude

Whatever happens with the canal, Winterlude planners aren't letting climate derail the rest of the festivalFeb.2to 19. Melanie Brault, director of capital celebrations with Canadian Heritage, described efforts to "weatherproof" the events.

"Regardless if it's50 C or if it's 15 C, regardless if it's pouring rain, if the wind is too blustery, Winterlude will go on," said Brault.

That means more indoor events, but also changes to festival mainstays like the ice carving competition.

Usually, the carving draws international competitors for one weekend at the beginning of the festival. This timethe carving will be broken up over three weekends to ensure there's always something to see even if the first series of sculptures melt.

The change is in part an adaptation to variable weather, Brault said, but alsoto make the festival more engaging.

"When there's live ice carving that's happening, it really draws a lot of attention," she said. "It is literally an art form, and to be able to watch these masterpieces being built right in front of you is spectacular.

"This way, if you're coming on weekend one, weekend two or even weekend three of Winterlude, you are guaranteed to see live ice carving."

Ottawa Morning5:20How Winterlude will go on, no matter the weather

It's Jan. 3. There's no snow on the ground and the Rideau Canal is still looking like a waterway, but the organizers of Winterlude aren't fazed.

Carvers don't mind balmy weather

Kevin Ashe is planning to carve at this year's festival. He said warmer weather isn't necessarily a drawback, since temperatures in the 6 C to 12 C range are ideal for carving.

"If it's any cooler than that, it can shatter," he said. "It gets really brittle. Our tools just shave it too quickly. If you put any water on, it will crack."

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He said the move from an intensive one-weekend competition to three weekends of demonstrations will be a little bit less grueling, while allowing carvers to spend more time talking to the public about their work.

"There's kind of a romance to ice carving where you really don't get too attached," he said. "It's a unique medium where you put so much work and so much planning you get it done and you walk away. I don't care if it falls down."

Still, he said the canal is an integral part of Winterludeand losing it for a second year in the row would take a toll on the festival.

This year, the carving is again planned for the Sparks Street Mall, which will also host a winter version of Buskerfestall three weekends.

Snowflake Kingdom in Gatineau's Jacques-Cartier Park is another big Winterlude draw.

Brault said that the slides there require a lot of snow. That's still the plan, but the park will have other attractions in case the weather doesn't co-operate.

"If ever we get to a point where we're not able to build the slides, there's still going to be so many other activities," Brault said. That includes snow carvings, scavenger hunts, an "acoustic zone" with musical instruments and theIndigenous game ofsnow snake.

Even if the canal doesn't open, there will still be skating options at City Hall and Lansdowne Park.

"I know that it's not at all the same thing," she said. "But for those who really want to get their skates laced up, there are still opportunities."