Liberal stronghold now Ottawa's top swing riding, and it could flip

Even Liberal MPP Bob Chiarelli, victorious through three provincial elections here,is feeling the heat this time around.

"I'm finding a lot of concern on the part of voters," Chiarelli said last weekwhile knocking on doorsin a residential neighbourhood off WoodroffeAvenue.

"It's a very different election this time," Chiarellisaid. "The dynamics are quite different. One of the concerns I hear is it's time for change.You know, 'What have you done for 15 years?'"

Many residents of Ottawa WestNepeanknowhim by name and reachout to shake his hand. ButChiarelliknows name recognition will only go so far.

Chiarelli, the first mayor of post-amalgamation Ottawa and regional chair before that, was already a knowncommodity when he took the seat over from fellow Liberal Jim Watson in a 2010 byelection.

But his hold on the riding hasn't exactly been marked by landslideshewon by little more than 1,000 votes in two of the past threeelections.

This election, Chiarellisaid, there seem to be more undecided voters,lifelong Liberal supporters among them

Marine Allen falls into that category. "So you're going for it again, are you?" she teased Chiarelliwhen he came knocking.

Allen said she's still leaning Liberal, but not because of the party's leader.

"You should keep your eyes and ears open. I'm not letting Kathleen Wynne take me by the bull horns and force me to vote," she said.

No. 1 swing riding

CBCpoll analyst Eric Grenier describes Ottawa WestNepean as the city's topswingriding.

"A swing riding will go from one party to the other in an election," he explained. "[It's] one that is usually a close race, and onethat elections are decided upon.

"Ottawa WestNepean would probably be tops of that list this election."

The riding has consistently voted with the government in power since it was first reconfigured out of the old riding of Ottawa West in 1999.

If the PCs continue with a 20 to 24 per cent lead over the Liberals in Ontario, the riding will go PC, Grenier said.

PCs working hard to win it

"When you look at past elections and see a thousand-vote difference, you know, in two days of solid door knocking, that's a thousand votes,"said PC candidateJeremy Roberts.

It's clear the Progressive Conservatives aren't leaving it to chance.

"We've gotten a huge amount of attention from a lot of folks across Ottawa and across the province who want to help us out because they see this as a battleground," Roberts said.

The party's leader, Doug Ford, has gone door-knocking with Roberts, and some federal ConservativeMPs are expected tovisitinthe campaign'sfinal weeks.

But nothing about the racehas been easy for Roberts so far. Helost the party nomination for the riding in 2017 to Karma Macgregor, adecision that was later controversially overturned.

With the late start, he's been door-knocking from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. seven days a week starting out in the southern, suburban neighbourhoods where Tory support washighest in previous elections.

Tories go after other Liberal strongholds

Nowhiscampaign is heading northwhere support has leanedLiberal, and Roberts saidthe response has been fantastic.

"We've been signing up memberships and getting out signs at a pace that's hard to keep up with," he said.

Roberts may only be 27 but he's no political neophyte. He first campaigned for the local PC candidate in the riding at age 14and hasworked as a political adviser to federal Conservative cabinet ministers.

Roberts can already count onthe support of stalwart Tories like Richard Thompson Walker, who said he'll vote PCno matter the local candidate, the polls, or the performance of the party leader.

"Doug Ford, he doesn't bother me," said Walker. "He's new to the game and I think he'll do what he can to bring spending under control and bring the debt down."

NDP take on strategic voters

The NDPcandidate,ChandraPasma, is hoping to take advantage ofPC voters disillusioned with theirleader.

Out canvassing near Britannia Beach, a longtime PC voter who supported Christine Elliott during theleadership race ran out to meet Pasma, telling her she's still undecidedbut likes NDPLeaderAndrea Horwath.

But the NDPis vulnerable if enoughtraditional supporters,like David Andrew, are worriedthat an NDP votecould help the PCs win.

"If it comes down to it and conservatives may win," Andrew said, "I don't like strategic voting, but I mean, as long as we don't have a Ford premier, that would be fantastic."

Pasma, an advocate for the Canadian Union of Public Employees, said she's tellingstrategic voters to think big.

"The NDP is solidly in second [in provincial polls]and we're still climbing, and the Liberals are in third and dropping, so the NDP is the strategic choice to stop Doug Ford," she said.

Chiarellitaking nothing for granted

Chiarelliis taking nothing for granted.

"It will be close," he said, but added he's been underestimated in the last three elections, with polls putting him behind.

Polls don't consider the popularity of the local candidate, he said, and added that"incumbency is important."

But if Ottawa WestNepean is in swing,it's not clear the result will have much to do with the incumbent, even for one who hasnever lost before.