'Rock solid' arena deal key to keeping Sens in Ottawa, sports observer says

Amid reports that theowners of the Ottawa Senators are consideringa sale, one sports observer says a "rock solid" plan to build a new arena at LeBreton Flats is needed toensurethe Sensstayput in Ottawa.

"That's the danger at this point. The LeBreton deal looks good, but it's not completely done yet," said Moshe Lander,an economics professor at Concordia University in Montreal.

Speculation aboutthe futureof the Senators began after the public learned in late March ownerEugene Melnykdiedand his two daughters,Anna and Olivia, inherited the franchise.

Three months later, the National Capital Commission (NCC) announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with a group led by the Senators to developan NHL hockey arena and events venue surrounded by mixed-use developmenton Albert Street in LeBreton Flats.

The group's concept was still in the very early stages, the NCCstressed, with a goal of fall 2023 set for signing a long-term lease agreement.

On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the commission said its board expects to get an update on the project in January.

No appetite for setbacks

Lander said the MOUpromises stability,as a potential owner would be more likely to stay in Ottawa if there was a plan to move downtownrather than buy a team in the suburbs "with no real direction."

He's hopeful local Ottawa groups willexpress interest in the team, but things need to progress smoothly well beyond an MOUto attract serious suitors,he added.

"Anybody who's seeing this as an investment is not going to be able to pressure the NCCbut they are certainly going to say'We're not putting up $700 million to find out that this thing is gonna fall through on some technicality or to find out that there's some sort of environmental impact assessment that says that the LeBreton Flats is dangerous,'" Lander said.

Ottawans know arena deals can fall apart, as they learned with the failedplay fora LeBreton Flats arenaback in 2018.

Calgary is a recent example of a city where a new arena project looked ready to go only to turn into a more protracted affair, Lander said.

"They're back to square one," he said.

"So it can drag and, depending on what ownership group comes forward, that itself could start posing some potential issues, especially if the ownership group is not from Ottawa."

Arena as public funding bargaining chip

Arena projects often see the proponents asking the city to chip in, and with LeBreton Flats falling on Crown land, the federal government, alongside the City of Ottawa, may be asked to help pay for a new Senators home which will put further pressure onOttawa to maintain its grip on theteam,Lander said.

"Usually what the ownership groups will do is effectively blackmail, leverage, scare-tactic their way into getting that money by saying, 'If you don't give it, I bet you Houston would,'" he said.

"Quebec City has been sitting with an empty arena ready made for an NHL team for about a decade and they'd love nothing more than to jump in at the last minute and grab the Sens."

Ottawa's mayor-elect, Mark Sutcliffe, said in an emailed statement Wednesday thathe does not support taxpayer money going toward the construction of a new arena"regardless of its location."

Sutcliffeadded that, like manyOttawa residents and Senators fans, he expects the NHL"to ensure any prospective new owner keeps our Senators in Ottawa."

The team's founderagreed.

"So as long as Gary Bettman is the [NHL] commissioner, in my opinion, the Senators are not going anywhere," Bruce Firestone said in an interview.

"When the Senators went bankrupt, Gary went to bat for Ottawa; he wanted to keep a National Hockey League team in Canada's capital city. He's gone to bat for the Arizona Coyotes. He does not believe, and I agree with him, that franchises in any major league sports should be on roller skates. They should stay where they are."

Despite threats, the only NHL team to move since the 2004-05 lockoutis the Atlanta Thrashers to Winnipeg after ownership couldn't find anyone willing to buy the team and keep it in Georgia.

In his statement, Sutcliffe said he supports relocating the Senators arena to LeBreton Flats from its current home at the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata"provided there is a strong plan to support local Kanata businesses that may be impacted by the move."

Firestone pointed to the repurposing of Toronto's Maple Leaf Gardens, the former home of the Toronto Maple Leafs, as an exampleof what can be done to help.

"It's got a Loblaws superstore in there [now]. There's the Mattamy Athletic Centre [for Toronto Metropolitan University].There was a very good reuse of the arena," he said.

Who can afford the team?

Sportico, a U.S. news outlet,reported on Tuesday that theSens have hiredGalatioto Sports Partners,a firm that acts as an arranger in sales of professional sports teams.

Late last year, Forbes Magazine estimated the team to be worth $525 million, up 22 per cent from a year before.

When the cost of a new arena is added, an incoming owner is easily looking at a totalinvestment north of $1 billion, Firestone said.

That's why there will likely to be "a whole bunch of people [who] are going to have their hands all over the deal, to basically lend the ownership group the money to finance the purchase of the team," Lander said.

The pool of potential owners is "a very elite club," he added.

Firestone, who won the Senators franchise in 1990,said the days of an entrepreneur like him being involved in a majorsports league are probably over.

"You need somebody who has resources and has other businesses that will support the team," he said.

Firestone said he believes there aresome people in the Ottawa-Gatineau area who would quality as buyers.

"But it's not as a long list as you would find in Toronto," he conceded.