Addressing Cornwall's 'under-vaccinated' key to joining rest of Ontario on COVID-19 plateau

Public health experts in eastern Ontario say better than expected vaccination rates have helped much of the region avoid the worst-case scenarios laid out by provincial COVID-19 modelling with one notable exception.

Cornwall, Ont., is seeing an increase in cases, outpacing other parts of the region and most of the province, according to Dr. Paul Roumeliotis, medical officer of health for the Eastern Ontario Health Unit (EOHU).

During his weekly update Monday, Roumeliotis said other socio-economic factors may also be contributing to the increase in cases.

"The Cornwall situation, we think, is a complicated one. We're tracing most of our cases from the unvaccinated. That is a challenge to us," Roumeliotis said.

"The major factor that we can immediately address is the under-vaccination rate."

Identifying people who are eligible for the shot and getting it to them is part of the EOHU plan.

Overall the EOHU vaccination rate is comparable to the rest of the province 87.7 per cent of eligible residents have at least one dose and 81.5 are fully vaccinated.

But in the parts of Cornwall,Roumeliotis is most worried about, 74.9 per cent of eligible residents have at least one dose and 67.3 per cent have two.

The seven-day average test positivity rate in those areas is between sevenand 7.6 per cent, where Ottawa Public Health is reporting 2.3 per cent in the capital, which is closer to the provincial average.

Doug Manuel,a senior scientist with TheOttawaHospital who models local COVID-19 numbers, said overall Ontario has had "better than expected news," coming inon the lower range of what models depicted for the last month.

"We're seeing a slower increase in September than many of the models [had] shown," said Manuel, who is also on the provincial Science Table.

"We have a bit better higher than expected vaccine uptake and, in terms of transmission, we've seen the mobility of people in Ontario hasn't gone up dramatically."

Manuel saida cautious approach to maintaining public health measures will be important into autumn.

He said that will help maintain the "fragile plateau" while vaccine boosters are deployed to the vulnerable elder population and vaccination campaignsprepare for when children fiveto 11 years oldbecome eligible for their shots.

Dr. Rob Cushman, acting medical officer of health for the Renfrew County District Public Health Unit, saidpeople need to remain vigilant especially with the risk of the more easily transmissible Delta variant.

"This can turn on a dime and we're heading into winter and more indoor activity," Cushman said.

"It's a matter of really fighting this war on two fronts. One is getting more vaccinations and the other is being really careful with the public health measures. It's going to be another tough winter."