Universities, college bracing for empty classrooms this fall

Post-secondary institutions in Ottawa are struggling to plan for the fall term as the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic continues to threaten enrolment.

Universities and colleges still don't know whether public health officials will deem it safe for students to return to the classroom in September, orwhether international travel bans will be lifted in time forforeign students to make their way to Ottawa.

CBC requested interviews with Carleton University, the University of Ottawa and Algonquin College about their plans for the fall. All three declined, sending statements instead.

• Post-secondary schools face rough autumn if pandemic keeps foreign students away

"Looking to the fall, it is difficult to imagine a complete lifting of physical distancing measures that would allow the return of large gatherings in confined spaces, as well as a complete lifting of international travel restrictions," Carleton wrotein its statement.

"In making all these decisions, we will continue to carefully follow government regulations and the guidelines of public health authorities ... Carleton is engaged in planning for a broad array of scenarios."

I think enrolment is the big question mark as we head into the fall.- Travis Shaw, DBRS Morningstar

Algonquin College said it's still accepting both domestic and international applications for its fall term, as usual.

"Algonquin College continues to follow governmental and Public Health guidance on all operational matters. Our Academic teams are diligently preparing for the Fall term and making plans for our new and returning students," the college wrote.

The University of Ottawa said it's working to "find responsive, flexible solutions to allow both our international and Canadian students to study in the program of their choice in September.... We hope to be able to welcome our students on campus but we are cognizant that public health directives may still not allow an in-person format in the fall."

Saint Paul University in Ottawa has already announced it's prepared to offer allits courses online this fall.

Professors making plans for online learning

According to one University of Ottawa professor who spoke to CBC, faculty are doing everything they can to move courses online.

"The general challenge, not unique to international students, is how do we make sure that those students don't take a gap year, because we rely on their tuition fees in order to support the operations of the university in the first place," said Patti Tamara Lenard, an associate professor at the U of O's graduate school of public and international affairs.

"How can we offer aproduct that is high enough quality that students will be motivated tostart or continuetheir studies in September regardless of where they live?"

Lenard said her faculty is in activeand ongoing discussionsabout how to make the most of online learning, including bringing in policy experts who wouldn't usually be available to speak to students, but who might be willing to now since they're stuck at home during the pandemic.

"It's hard even to explain the amount of work that is going into this,"she said.

Lenard said the faculty is operating under the assumption that public health officials likely won't deem it safe for students to return to class in September.

She said action plans are being drawn up to allow students to maintain their physical distancein theclassroom, including the possibility of rotating the days of the week when they can attend class.

Lenard said approximately 10 to 15 per cent of students in her graduate programare international students, most of themfrom China.

Financial hitif students don't return

One analyst who spoke to CBC said universities and colleges could take a financial hit if students aren'tback in class, and if those international students aren't allowed to travel.

"I think enrolment is the big question mark as we head into the fall," saidTravis Shaw ofDBRS Morningstar, a global credit rating agency that specializes inlarge institutionsincluding universities.

"From a financial perspective, what we're concerned about in terms of university credit qualityis how materially are institutions impacted in September in terms of enrolment, because that is the key revenue driver,"Shaw said.

"If [campuses] were still to be closed in September, that would have a fairly notable impact, and may discourage first-year enrolment, particularly international students if the travel restrictions remain in place, but maybe to a certain extent domestic students, as well," Shaw said.

Shaw said many Ontario universities have seen an uptick in international enrolment in recent years, since tuition fees are capped for domestic students.

DBRS Morningstar estimates about 20 per cent of the student body at the U of O isfrom out of country.Algonquin College's website says more than 4,000 international students from 130 countries are enrolled at the school. Carleton University says it had 4,625 international students enrolled in 2019.

"The primary area of growth to deal with rising cost pressures at universities has been to expand international enrolment. So we see that ranging anywhere from thesingle digits, six, seven per cent, to well in excess of 20 per cent of enrolment [in Ontario.]," Shaw said.

"So for some institutionsthat are much more reliant oninternational enrolment, they're potentially more vulnerable to a near-term shock."

Shaw said his agency expects that hit to be temporary, and for enrolment to stabilize when the pandemic passes.