Lifted capacity limits behind sharp rise in coronavirus levels: OPH doctor

One of Ottawa's top doctors says a recent rise in COVID-19 transmission likelyreflects the dropping of public indoor capacity limits earlier this month, and that it's too soon to tellwhether lifting the mask mandate is to blame.

On Wednesday, Dr. Brent Moloughney, Ottawa Public Health's deputy medical officer of Health,released a statementnoting that the city'swastewater viral signal and the percentage ofpositive testshave been increasing.

A slight bump in outbreaks was also noted, though hospitalizations were stable.

Increased transmission is expected to continueas public health measures lift, people hold social gatherings and children return to school following March Break,according toMoloughney's statement.

His update landed the same day new data fromOttawa's COVID-19 wastewater monitoring project indicated a surge in the city's viral signal in the 10 days leading up to March 22.

Tyson Graber, an associate scientist with the CHEO Research Institute, said the data may reflectthe fastest growth of the signal in the first part of a COVID-19 wave since the beginning of the pandemic.

However, he cautioned that a few more days are needed to confirm that.

Graber said it's concerning but not unexpectedthat the signal is rising, citing the removal of public health restrictions andwaning vaccine immunity,

"How high we will go, we cannot predict," he said.

Indicators stable in EOHU

In an interview,Moloughneysaid upticks typically happen after any reopening. The city and the province aremonitoringthe trends, particularly lagging indicators such as hospitalization, he said.

The Ontario Science Advisory Table has predicted an increase in hospitalizations, he noted, but "nothing like what we saw in January" when the Omicron variant was at its peak.

The recent increase in transmission is likely a result of lifting indoor capacitylimits on March 1 and increased social interactions, not the March 21 liftingof the mask mandate,Moloughneysaid.

"It's too soon to have that impact," he said.

The end of the mask mandate, coupled with the end ofMarch break, may both reveal their impact in the coming days or weeks, he added.

Dr. PaulRoumeliotis, the medical officer of health forthe Eastern Ontario Health Unit, said it's "a bit too early" to comment on the effect of removing the masking requirement.

"It just happened a couple of days ago," he said.

Roumeliotis said the number of hospitalizations and outbreaks in his health region has recently decreased and he'd like it to stay that way.

"Our hopeindeedis that, even if we do get a bit of increase in cases and transmission ... that it is decoupled from an overwhelming of our health-care system and sickness and severe disease in the most vulnerable," Roumeliotis said.