Where is old man winter? Not in Atlantic Canada yet

Where is old man winter?

Not surprisingly, it's a question I'm getting asked a lot these days.

Temperatures across Nova Scotiawere two to threedegrees above average in the month of December and have been running fivedegrees above average so far in January!

Aside from the high Arctic, Quebec and Atlantic Canadahave been experiencing the warmest temperature anomalies in North America since the start of December.

So far this winter season, the cold air has been bottled up in the west, with places like British Columbia and Alberta experiencing cooler than average temperatures.

Folks in Edmonton have not felt the temperature rise above zero sinceNov. 27!

No snow

By comparison,it's been a very slow start to winter across mainland Nova Scotia with just sixcentimetresof snow recorded at Halifax airport, 13 cm at Yarmouth and 54 cm at Greenwood.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic have been a factor and the lower snowfall totals near the coastline, versus northern areas, is good evidence of that. Any snowy systems that have tracked through have quickly mixed to rain along the warmer coastline.

The 6cm of snow at Halifax is a record low for mid-January, by a long shot.

The winter of 1979-1980 was the previous lowest start for snow and is currently the record holder as the least snowywinter season overall in Halifax. By the end of that winter, only 102 cm had been recorded at Halifax airport. Just72 cm of snow fell at the Citadel downtown.

It's not over until it's over

The now infamous winter of 2014-2015 is the greatest example of a winter in which the snow started out with a trickle and ended with a torrent.

That winter, just 66 cm of snow had fallen by the end of January, but thatpattern shifted and the storms started rolling in. Halifax picked up 131 cm of snow in February and 147 cm in March. There was snow on the ground until the end of April.

As far as thewinter of 2022-23, temperatures are expected to remain above average through the end of January and possibly into early February, which makes an already difficult long-range snowfall prediction even more challenging.

Will we see snow? Absolutely.

Will the snow actually stick around without being washed away? I think this isthe bigger question over the next few weeks.

In the short term, we do have the potential for some snow on our menu for Friday. A system tracking to oursouth will bring the possibility of accumulating snow for many, especially in the southwest.That said, uncertainty remains as to how close the low will track and as result, how much snow we might see.

Stay tuned for updates online, on radio and on TV over the next few days.