Scientists predict record ocean temperatures in 2012

Canadian and U.S. scientists are predicting2012 willset records for warm ocean temperatures on the eastern Seaboard.

Dave Hebert, a research scientistwith the Bedford Institute of Oceanography, said temperatures off Nova Scotia in August were about two degrees above normal.

"We're actually seeing it in all theGulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf all the way up tothe Labrador Shelf. All warming up a coupleof degrees," Hebert told CBC News.

Hesaid the department of fisheries and oceanshas not yet calculatedtemperatures for 2012,however he expectsit to break records.

"Thelast two years have been the warmest years sincewe've startedmeasuring. So, I think thisyear being even warmer than last year, I think this year will probably be the warmest we've had."

This week, the NationalOceanic Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. reported the highest water temperatures everoff New England were recorded in the first sixmonths of 2012.

"We were really struck at how warm the shelf had become," said Kevin Friedland of the Northeast Fisheries Science Centre.

The agencyreported on temperatureson the Northeast ContinentalShelf from Cape Hatteras, North Carolinato the Gulf of Maine.

"Not only were theytop to bottom very warm, but spatially.We see the extent of the warming really covered the shelf where there is high productivity in fishing... also seaward out to the Gulf Stream. It was pervasive,"Friedlandsaidin an interview from Narraganset, Rhode Island.

Fish migration changing

The NOAA study alsoreported a northward shift of cod. Scientists on both sides of the border are watching for southernfish species to followwarm water north. Friedman is concernedone of the losers in the climate changemay be the Atlantic salmon.

"When the fish migrate fromfresh water,they will be enteringa much warmer ocean with a more aggressive predator field so that the warmer it gets there wouldbe higher mortality occurringon these stocks," said Friedman. "Sothis will be a cascading effect most acutely felt inthe Gulf of Maineto Nova Scotiaand the major salmon producingareas such as the Gulf of St. Lawrence."

In Canada, scientists tell CBC they aretrying to sort out what this means.

"If we get systematic changesin temperatures, we can expect the animals to pick new places to live," said Charles Hannah, aresearch scientistand manager with the departmentof fisheries and oceans in Halifax.

Buthe said it's impossible to predictthe immediate effectsofthe warmer water seenin recent years.

In the 1950's, water temperaturesoff the east coast ofCanada also spiked and were followedby about a decade of cooling.

"When you filter out the noise -the decadal variabilities -there is a long term trend and this years' temperaturesare consistentwith that trend,"Hannah said.

"But it's quite possibleand likely that next year or the year after we could have a reversal and the temperaturescould declinefor a few years.Predicting distributionsof animalsfor next year or the followingyear are really difficult because we can't say it will necessarily willbe warmer next year."

TheDFOis in the second year of a five-year programexamining the impact of ocean climate change. It's a national projectcalled theAquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program.

"Its purpose is to try to help us understandwhat's going to happen from the physicsto the biology of the animals in the ocean tohow climate change will impactDFO'sactivites," said Hannah.