Nova Scotia's budget is forgettable and status quo, says Graham Steele

Finance Minister Randy Delorey delivered an election budget today.

That's not because it's full of goodies. It isn't. And it's not because an election is imminent. We're still 12 to 18 months away from casting our ballots.

It's an election budget because it's so completely forgettable. Nobody will be mad. Nobody will be mobilized. And that's exactly the way the McNeil government wants it.

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Status quo budget

Today's budget is as status quo as you can imagine. Any new spending is symbolic at best. There's no wow factor, like the free tuition for low-income families recently announced in New Brunswick.

More funding for early childhood education a good news item promoted by the Liberals in advance of the budget was bereft of details. We're left applauding the idea, even though we have no idea how it will work.

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On the revenue side, the government continues to rely on the existing tax system as a reliable cash cow.

With only minor tweaks, the existing tax system will pump out over $300 million of new money this year. That's where the balance comes from.

3rd budget most important

It's no secret that a government has to deal with the tough stuff in its first two years.

That's why we saw such a ferocious budget last week in Newfoundland and Labrador. The new Liberal government of Dwight Ball raised taxes and cut services, and still has four years to recover.

The toughest thing the McNeil government has done is to reshape public-sector labour relations. They got started on that as soon as they were elected, and by now the bulk of the work is done.

A government can't wait for the fourth year, just before the electoral plug is pulled, to start handing out the budget lolly. That's not credible and is too obviously designed to win votes.

It's the third budget that really matters. It's the fulcrum on which a four-year mandate turns.

No protests

The Liberals don't want trouble. As the finance minister predicted, there will be no protests at Province House this year.

They especially don't want to see a repeat of the film tax credit debacle, which last year caught them off guard. A full year later, the issue continues to nip at their heels.

The Liberals have written off film workers as a voting bloc, but they believe the damage is limited. If they truly thought the damage might spread, they'd be doing more in this budget than continuing a film fund that is already proven not to work.

The Liberals also don't want to see a repeat of the pharmacare brouhaha. That also caught them off guard. They were unnerved by the blowback from seniors and had enough sense to surrender almost immediately. Fortunately for them, there will be no lasting damage.

Nagging questions

It was a stand-pat budget, but below the surface, there are a couple of nagging questions for the wonks and pontificators.

How exactly does the McNeil government expect health-care spending to drop? The largest, hungriest department has historically grown and grown, hoovering every available dollar and then some.

Running a public health-care system without any new money requires some large assumptions about doctors' pay, union settlements, equipment costs, drug prices, ad utilization. Those assumptions are not realistic and cannot be sustained. The minister's explanations today were nonsense.

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The budget is also based on the assumption that the government's four-year public-sector wage pattern starting with a two-year freeze, and then adding only three per cent over the following three years will take hold.

No major union has yet agreed to that pattern.

We have a labour stalemate, not labour peace, and it's too early to know how it will turn out.

Simple story

The McNeil Liberals are well ahead of their opponents in the polls.

There has been some grumbling from certain sectors, but the government could not possibly have the public support it currently enjoys if students, civil servants and teachers were truly motivated to vote against them.

At this point, the McNeil Liberals will be defeated only by their own mistakes, or by arrogance in the face of a weak opposition.

Now that the third budget is out of the way, the decks are clear for the Liberals to start telling a simple pre-election story.

Steady hands. Balanced budget. On course.

Then repeat, repeat, repeat.

If Nova Scotians buy into the "steady hands" story, there really is no reason to change governments when the election rolls around in 2017, is there?