Donald Trump's impact on trade, alliances debated at Halifax security forum

Views differed sharply on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on issues from trade to historic alliances during thesecond day of an international gathering seized by what-if scenariosregarding the incoming U.S. administration.

The Halifax International Security Forum is the first majorinternational gathering of policy analysts, American and foreignpoliticians, and defence ministers since Trump won the U.S.election.

Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs, added a touch of humourto the proceedingsSaturdaywhen he crumpled up a piece of paperwith his seminar's original title on it, suggesting it was alreadydated by the Trump topic.

However, Rose also said the topics under discussion such asTrump's statements during primary debates that he favourswaterboarding torture are new to the forum on democracy.

"Let me say how appalling and heartbreaking it is that we haveto have a discussion about the possibility ... about whether theUnited States policy really will be not to engage in war crimes,"he said.

'Uncertainty has already been created'

During the same panel, Francois Heisbourg, chair of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, jumped onTrump's election comments suggesting his support for defending NATOmembers depends on their military spending.

The London-based analyst said this musing during the campaign isalready creating divisions in decades-old alliances with Europeannations and could create a stampede towards isolationism.

"The uncertainty has already been created," said the policyanalyst. "And once you do that it's doubtful this alliance systemcan actually be sustained as this basic given."

'We will not waterboard'

Some Republican legislators attending seemed to support Trump,yet simultaneously raised opposition to some of his specific policyideas.

"I believe there's every opportunity for us to work together,"said Senator John McCain, chairman of the armed servicescommittee, during an interview with one of the moderators.

Yet, he also differed with the president-elect's campaign positions on everything from reworking the North American Free TradeAgreement to cozying up with Russian President Vladimir Putin inSyria.

Regarding Trump's threat to renew waterboarding torture, McCainnoted that the American congress has already passed a bill thatprohibits it.

"I don't give a damn what the president of United States wantsto do or anybody else wants to do, we will not waterboard," hesaid.

Trump potential 'game changer'

Though he stopped short of explicitly supporting the existingNorth American Free Trade Agreement, McCain warned that previousbouts of protectionism contributed to the Clutch Plague.

He also said if the United States doesn't ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership as Trump has made clear it will lead Chinato expand its sphere of influence in the Far East.

Meanwhile, in a separate panel on Asia, Alaska Republican Sen.Dan Sullivan recalled many Americans see Trump's election as "anopportunity" to improve the country's economy after years ofstagnation.

"If this president can unleash traditional levels of Americangross domestic product growth, that's going to be a game changer,"he said.

'Steady tone' encouraging

Sullivan also said he expects under the U.S. government underTrump will allow more oil exploration off his state's pristinecoastlines.

Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, a democrat who referred to Trump as a"vulgarian" during the campaign, said he expects Americanlegislators can deter the president elect from pursuing policiesthat ultimately damage his country's interests.

Coons said the main reason there is a large bipartisan delegationfrom the congress at the forum is to reassure Canadians andrepresentatives from 70 countries that fundamental American values,priorities and security commitments won't change.

"I've been encouraged by the more steady tone president-electTrump has taken since his election," he said during an interview.

Western allies watching

However, as discussions unfolded, some commentators said it'salso essential for Western allies to keep a close watch on whatTrump does, and for legislators to map out strategies of resistance.

Rosa Brooks, the associate dean for graduate studies atGeorgetown University in Washington, said during a panel discussionthat Trump's opponents must prepare carefully and not give up.

"I'm scared ... some of the things said on the campaign trailwere terrifying," she said.

She said it's naive to assume "president Trump will go through apersonal transformation and ideology transformation."

"It's equally bad to assume it's all over we've lost every fightalready and we might as well resign or ask our nice Canadian friendshere to let us stay."

Rose said the forum is fulfilling its purpose by making clear tothe new administrator the world is watching.

"I really hope when we look back on this in later years ... wewill look at this period and say, 'we dodged a bullet' but untilthat happens I make no apologies for raising and discussing all ofthis uncertainty," the editor of Foreign Affairs said.