N.L. is at more risk of a COVID surge than anywhere in Canada, says researcher

The risk of an incoming surge of COVID-19 cases and severe health outcomes is higher in Newfoundland and Labrador than anywhere in Canada, according to data from an infectious diseases researcher at the University of Toronto.

Tara Moriarty, co-founder ofCOVID-19 Resources Canada, a grassroots organization with the objective of facilitating Canada's COVID-19 response, created the COVID-19 Hazard Index. The index compilesdata in four major categories: vaccine protection, current caseloads and spread, the impact on the health-care system and mortality.

Newfoundland and Labrador hadthe highest hazard index in Canada as of July 9, at 2.98 out of five.

"Newfoundland and Labrador had really come down, was really improving for several weeks until the most recent hazard index update," Moriarty saidMonday.

"What's happening in Newfoundland and Labrador now is that the test positivity rate is increasing really quickly, and that may be related to a BA.5 surge in the province like in many other Canadian regions."

Other data from the group estimates the province is seeing about 1,400 first-time infections per day, Moriarty said, which will likely raise hospitalizations, patient admissions into intensive care and deaths in the weeks to come.

"That doesn't include reinfections, and it's a little bit harder toestimate what percentage of people are being reinfected with BA.5," she said. "But say we estimate there's an additional at least 30 per cent on top of 1,400, that might reflect the actual numbers."

Data from Newfoundland and Labrador's Health Departmentshows case numbers have dropped in recent weeks, but that number doesn't represent the whole picture due to the province limiting who can get a COVID-19 PCR test.

Hospitalizations dropped to eight as of July 6, with one person in critical care. A new update is expected Wednesday.

However, officials have noted COVID-19wastewater testing is yielding more positive results as much of the population tests through COVID-19 rapid tests.

"People should be aware of that, and recognize that there is a new surge or wave that has started in other provinces," Moriarty said. "And it's clear that it's started now in Newfoundland and Labrador."

Omicron hospitalizations likely cost over $60M: Moriarty

As Moriarty expects hospitalizations in the province to rise, her group is also looking into the financial cost of Omicron on Newfoundland and Labrador's health-care system.

The estimated cost of hospitalizations, which comes from interpolating data published by the Canadian Institute of Health Information and the number of estimated infections, is around $62 million, according to Moriarty.

WATCH| Tara Moriarty speaks with the CBC's Peter Cowan:

COVID cases could rise in N.L. as risk still high

2 years ago

Duration 4:45

Researcher Tara Moriarty, speaking with the CBC's Peter Cowan, says the risk of catching COVID-19 in Newfoundland and Labrador is now higher than anywhere else in Canada.

That would be since the beginning of December, and the daily cost expected based on the hospitalizations is nearly $400,000 a day," Moriarty said.

"The average length of stay in hospitalizations for Omicron is less than it was for variants before Omicron. So we adjust for that, and we can estimate what the costs are based on data recorded by CIHI."

The rise in the hazard index shows the importance of keeping protective measures like mask-wearing and vaccination in mind, Moriarty said, as even small forms of protection can be key in slowing virus transmission.

"Slowing down transmission is really important so that health-care systems don't get overwhelmed, so that hospitals are available for people who have not just problems with COVID, but with other things that need urgent care."

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