Why you can expect the election call to fall on Thursday

Paul Davis is running out of time to drop the writ for the start of the provincial election campaign. By law, Davis has until Sunday to visit the lieutenant-governor if he is going to meet the minimum campaign time for the Nov. 30 voting day.

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Nobody expects Davis to wait until the last minute. In fact, there is a growing sense Davis will visit Frank Fagan on Thursday.

The election call playbook has been a simple one for the past few campaigns. The premier visits Government House early in the day to officially dissolve the legislature, then holds a campaign kickoff announcement shortly after 6 p.m. to coincide with live coverage on the supperhour newscasts.

If that play holds true, Thursday is the best bet for things to get officially underway.

A matter of timing

Davis, Dwight Ball and Earle McCurdy were in St. John's for a women's issue debate Monday night. They are in Gander for a Chamber of Commerce debate Tuesday.

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On Wednesday, the political action is in Ottawa, where Justin Trudeau will officially be sworn in as prime minister and will unveil his cabinet. Davis said earlier this week he wouldn't drop the writ until Trudeau and his government took office.

Friday is the lowest audience potential of the week for the supperhour newscasts. On Saturday, the three leaders are back in central Newfoundland for a Municipalities NL conference and leaders debate. Davis will also deliver a keynote address to municipal leaders that night.

Sunday is the last possible moment, and there's limited potential for live television coverage that night.

All of which brings us back to Thursday as the most likely launching point for the official election campaign.

The TV audience is larger that night. And there won't be any competition for attention from Team Trudeau.

On the road already

The problem for Davis is that the Liberals have already effectively dropped the writ and hit the road.

Ball and the Liberals are off to the races with their bus shiny and racing through the province's 40 districts just days before the official start of the election.

Ball kicked off his campaign on Monday in front of a modest crowd at the Holiday Inn in St. John's. And if that campaign launch looked and sounded familiar, it should.

Ball walked in to a song written specially for the campaign by Darrell Power, a former member of Great Big Sea, called A Stronger Tomorrow. In 2007, Danny Williams launched his election campaign with a song written specially for the campaign by Darrell Power, called We Know What We're Fighting For.

In both cases, the St. John's-based agency the Idea Factory had been hired to do the creative work for the campaign.

The Idea Factory ran provincial campaigns for Williams and Kathy Dunderdale before switching to the Liberals this year. Clearly, Darrell Power switched with them.

Ball launched his campaign trying to echo Trudeau, asking people to make their choice based on hope. When Davis launches his campaign, PC insiders say the emphasis will be on leadership.

It all gets started officially on Thursday.