New Brunswick a popular bubble prospect for provincial neighbours

After 31 years in business, Kevin Sampson has experienced the highs and lows of the tourism industry.

He said it took him five years to return to the same financial position he was in the day before the Sept. 11 attacks.

Sampson,who operates a hotel, restaurant and adventure travel business on Grand Manan, doesn't even want to wager a guess on how long it'll take to recover from the financial fallout from COVID-19. After all, there weren't widespread travel bans for months after theattacks in the United States.

But he's certain "this summer is pretty much a write-off, and now what we're stemming our hopes on is next summer. And that becomes the gamble for all of us."

The trick now is to survive until next summer, said Sampson.

He said a lot of tourism operators will have to make a decision in the next few weeks about whether to cut their losses and shut down for 2020 or open with reduced services and try to "eke out an existence."

"People can weather the storm to a certain point and then you just have to bail," said Sampson. "There's just no way of continuing."

Sampson said about 80 per cent of his business comes from outside of New Brunswick.

Even if New Brunswickers start to explore our own province, Sampson said there's no way it'll make up for the out-of-province tourists that visit the island every summer.

And while opening up the borders to Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia will help, it still won't save the season. Most of his clients come from the heaviest hit jurisdictions like Quebec, Ontario, Massachusetts and New York.

"There might be a bit of a bump with 'staycations,' but it's not going to make up for a loss of 80 per cent," he said.

Maritime bubble

The head of New Brunswick's tourism association said forming a travel bubble with Prince Edward Island won't help New Brunswick operators.

In fact, it might even hurt them, saidCarol Alderdice, president and CEO of the Tourism Industry Association of New Brunswick.

Basically, it comes down to numbers, she said. Since New Brunswick is so much bigger than P.E.I., the Island stands to gain the most in terms of visitors and if New Brunswickers are crossing the bridge, they may not be exploring their home province.

Alderdice saidit would be better for New Brunswick to open both borders to P.E.I and Nova Scotia rather than just the one to the Island.

With Nova Scotia's larger population, it will help even out the flow of visitors between the three, she said.

The factor that can't be accounted for at the moment is public confidence in travelling, said Alderdice. Just because they'reopen, doesn't mean people will come.

"I think people are going to be very leery about going outside of their communities ... until they're comfortable and we can prove that it is safe to travel again."

A P.E.I. bubble

The head of the Island's tourism association acknowledges that his province stands to reap the benefits of an open border with New Brunswick.

Kirk Nicholson, the president of the Tourism Industry Association of Prince Edward Island, said his members would happily bubble with New Brunswick.

"Any business is welcome when you're in the tourist business at this stage of the game," he said.

While it won't make up for the one million annual visitors to P.E.I., "some customers or visitors will be certainly better than none at all."

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Just based on the numbers alone, Nicholson said he "would certainly understand" if New Brunswick wasn't willing to open the border to P.E.I.

"I do get that side of the argument," he said.

And while a certain percentage of Maritimes will remain in "hunker-down mode," Nicholson believes people are ready to venture out.

"Overall, I think there is demand. I think there's pent-up demand that people really are ready to get moving. I think we're nomads by nature ... people are ready to leave our province and go somewhere else."

Just not in big enough numbers to sustain the Maritime tourism season, he said.

Travel as therapy

The owner of a St. Andrews whale watching business would also like to see a regional travel bubble even though it won't salvage the 2020 season.

"I think that opening up a travel bubble with the rest of Atlantic Canada will be advantageous for people's mental health moving into the summer and we support that," said Joanne Carney of Jolly Breeze Whale Adventures.

"Visiting St. Andrews is a great escape from people's current situation at home, a feeling of stepping back in time with the historic downtown sector and multiple other attractions all creating an authentic getaway feeling."

With the boats required to take passengers out on the waters of the Bay of Fundy, the whale-watching business has "huge overhead costs" associated with opening for the season, said Carney.

Despite a 70 per cent reduction expected, Carney is going to open this season as long as Transport Canada and the province give the go-ahead.

"A main priority is to keep our staff employed for the summer. With whale watching being an outdoor activity, it fortunately presents with reduced risk for COVID-19," she said.

Expanding our bubble?

While premiers from P.E.I. and Nova Scotia have both said they're considering letting New Brunswick into their bubbles, they're not the only ones admiring New Brunswick's success at keeping COVID-19 at bay.

The politician who represents the Magdalen Islands in the provincial legislature said the majority of his constituents would rather bubble with New Brunswick than their own province of Quebec.

Jol Arseneau, the Parti QubcoisMNA representingMagdalen Islands, said his constituency is also in an enviable position when it comes to COVID-19. There was a brief flurry of travel-related cases following March break, but there have been no new cases since early April.

Given the high numbers of infection in Quebec, Arseneau said he would much rather join a bubble with P.E.I. and New Brunswick. He believes the majority of his constituents would agreebut saidmany are worried about speaking out with that opinion.

He saidthe more vocal minority wants to shut down the islands to the outside world except for essential travel.

Although part of Quebec, the islands are actually closer to P.E.I. and most of the traffic comes and goes via a ferry to Souris, P.E.I.

Arseneau said, "Alot of people here would be reassured if we could go ahead with a plan that said, 'We will join up with P.E.I. and New Brunswick and we'll forget about Quebec this year.'"

Last week, Premier Blaine Higgs told CBC News' Quebec City radio stationhe was open to the idea of eventually adding the Magdalen Islands to New Brunswick's bubble.

"I guess it depends on the situation that they're in, which I think is pretty good at this stage. And it might depend how much traffic is coming" from Quebec to the islands, he said.

Darlene Grant Fiander, the president of the Tourism Industry Association of Nova Scotia, did not respond to messages on Friday.