Gallant's jobcreation guarantee likely to come up short and then some

Brian Gallant's guarantee of creating 10,000 jobs during his first four years in office is likely to come up 11,000 jobs short, according to a set of grim economic projections released by the province's Finance Department on Tuesday.

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The traditional economic outlook compiled by non-political department officials and released as part of a package of budget day documentsTuesdaytook a darker view of the province's immediate prospects than Minister Cathy Roger's optimistic budget addressparticularly in the area of economic growth and job creation.

"By working together, we have delivered on job creation and our province is beginning to witness positive economic trends and recent successes that will position us for economic growth," said Rogers in her speech, suggesting the province's economy is finally on the move.

But at the same time, her own department was painting a different picture, pessimistically projecting economic growth of just 0.6 per cent this year. That, it said, will be ninth among the 10provinces and less than onethird of the expected national growth rate.

And after watching the New Brunswick economy lose 2,400 jobs during the last two years,the department also projected only about 1,700 of those will return over the next two years. If true, that would leave the Gallant government's four-year job creation record in a deficit.

Focus on 2015 growth numbers

But there was none of that bleak tone in the minister's speech tothe legislature,which instead touted strong economic growth numbers from two years ago and vowed to "surpass current growth expectations."

"In 2015, New Brunswick experienced the thirdbest economic growth among the provinces, and the highest level of growth since 2004," Rogers said during her speech, not mentioning the fall to seventhbest in 2016 and the anticipated ninth-best this year.

Following the speech, Opposition finance critic Bruce Fitch said the province's worsening economic performance is being glossed over by the government.

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"That certainly isn't a growing economy but a shrinking economy," he said of the declining growth numbers.

"Lots of smoke and mirrors. We're going to blow away the smoke and look behind the mirrors."

The government's budget messaging is similar to a controversial advertising campaign it launched earlier this winter that also ignored weak economic numbers in 2016 to declare the province a "growth leader in Canada" with a "soaring economy."

During the 2014 election campaign, Liberals ridiculed the Progressive Conservative government of David Alward as weak on the economy and the first in New Brunswick history to preside over a fouryear loss of jobs. It made strong economic growth and the minimum creation of 10,000 jobs the key to its election campaign.

"We have seen a government that was unable to have a net gain in jobs throughout their mandate," Gallant saidin September 2014 during the formal release of his election platform.

"Within four years, the mandate of a Liberal government, we would create over 10,000 jobs for New Brunswickers and that's the basement. That's the guarantee."