Low Quebec birth rate spurs some calls for increased immigration

An ever-declining birth rate in Quebec as well as an aging population are putting the spotlight on the province's immigration levels against the backdrop of issues such as the economy, identity, culture and language.

The province's statistics bureau said the 2015 rate was 1.6children per woman, down one per cent from 2014 and marking thesixth consecutive year it had edged lower.

• Quebec birth rate drops for 6th straight year
• Quebec outlines new financing for subsidized daycares
• Canada in 50 years an aging population and a shift to the West

While that figure may not appear abnormally low, the provincealso has a rapidly aging population and a growing shortage ofskilled workers.

Quebec estimates 1.1 million people will retire between 2013 and2022 and a recent document published for the Immigration Departmentsaid "this situation underscores the need to reassert immigration'srole and its contribution to Quebec."

A 'profound break' between Montreal and Quebec

Immigrants, however, are not spread out evenly across theprovince, and Statistics Canada estimates visible minority groupswill represent 31 per cent of Montreal's population by 2031 but nomore than five per cent everywhere else in Quebec.

Universitde Montral demographer Marc Termote said he's "very,very worried" about the growing cultural and linguistic divisionsbetween Montreal and other cities.

"What's happening is a profound break between Montreal and therest of Quebec," he said.

• New Quebec immigration policy aimed at attracting, retaining foreign talent
• Quebec refugee sponsor wants processing time decreased
• Prospective Quebec immigrants 'very frustrated' by online portal crash

For example, he explained, there are more immigrants in one of Montreal'ssuburbs, Brossard, than in all of Quebec City, thecapital and second-largest city in the province.

Furthermore, Termote said it's a widely publicized myth thatincreasing immigration will help labour shortages or the economy.

"All the studies show immigration creates a neutral benefit tothe economy," he said. "And we will need to welcome many, manymore people than we do now for it to affect our aging populationfigures or fix labour shortages."

Montreal is having trouble integrating the immigrants it alreadyhas, with unemployment rates for those born outside Canada at 11 percent in the city compared to seven per cent for non-immigrants.

Quebec has more control over its immigration policy than other provinces and selects newcomers largely based on language; between2010 and 2014, 61.3 per cent of immigrants were francophone.

The policy helps preserve Quebec's linguistic distinctiveness,but it also creates tensions, Termote said.

"The pool of French immigrants is not France or Belgium or Switzerland," he said. "It's French Africa, the Maghreb and sub-Saharan, and there are cultural and economic implications to this."

There are also political implications, explains Daniel Weinstock,director of the McGill Institute for Health and Social Policy.

Weinstock said Quebec is witnessing a "hollowing out" of themoderate, nationalist position on immigration and diversity that hascharacterized politics in the province since the 1960s and the timeof RenLvesque, said Weinstock.

Quebec government wants to increase immigration

Debate is being polarized between the Liberal government, whichwants to increase immigration to 60,000 people a year and welcomethem based on their economic potential, and an opposition wary ofthe province's ability to properly integrate them.

• New Quebec immigrants say driving test rules limit job opportunities
• They are all excited': Residents in small Quebec town sponsor Syrian refugee family

"There was a kind of consensus, largely the idea that Quebec isan immigrant society and a francophone society and being afull-fledged Quebec citizen means accepting that social contract,"Weinstock said.

That is changing, he said, as many in the province are beginningto think it's not just about protecting the French language "butprotecting all other aspects of Quebec culture which certainimmigrants, even when they do speak French, may not share."

An example of the new thinking was the values charter the PartiQubcois government introduced in 2013 that would have prohibitedpublic-sector workers from wearing conspicuous religious symbols onthe job.

The charter was never adopted as the PQ was defeated in the2014 election.

The Liberal government quickly backtracked on its proposal towelcome more immigrants after receiving criticism, stating it wasplanning on keeping immigration levels constant at 50,000 people ayear for the time being.

• ANALYSIS|The political steamroller that is Quebec's charter of values
• Quebec wants to force businesses to add French to outdoorsignage
• Key moments in the fight over commercialsignagein Quebec

When the Coalition for Quebec's Future, a right-of-centre partythat is the third largest political party in the province,questioned the merits of increasing the number of immigrants,Couillardaccused its leader,FrancoisLegault, of "fanning theflames of intolerance."

"With 50,000-60,000 immigrants a year we are going to change thecultural face of Quebec and the challenges of a francophone societythat is culturally distinct will increase," Weinstock said.

"How that will play out politically is anyone's guess."