CAQ 'tidal wave' predicted for Quebec City region

In 2015, when Stephen Harper and his Conservatives were trounced across Canada, they more than doubled their seat score in Quebec, taking five new seats in the contrarian Quebec City region.

It's an anecdote Universit Laval political scientist Rjean Pelletier shares to underscore that voters in the province's capital region are "more conservative, more traditionalist" than most Canadians.

"There is a desire for change," says Pelletier.

For Quebec City voters, change means a shift further right, to Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec.

Pelletier is predicting a CAQ "tidal wave" in the region, with Legault's party taking at least nine of 11 ridings.

The CAQ won two of those seats in the 2014 provincial election, while the Liberals won eight.

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Going into this election, only the downtown Quebec City riding of Taschereau was held by the Parti Qubcois.

The PQ is generally regarded in the region as "too left," said Pelletier, while "it's not a big jump to go from the Liberals to the CAQ."

Pelletier points to the ad campaign launched last spring by public sector unions, displaying a split image of Legault and Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard.

The poster was meant as a warning that the CAQ and the Liberals are one and the same.

That's actually in keeping with the thinking of voters in the region, who seem ready to switch from the Liberals to the CAQ "without much difficulty," Pelletier said.

4-way fight in Taschereau

Taschereau may be the hold-out in this 2018 race, although with the departure of PQ veteran Agns Maltais, Pelletier says it is a four-way race.

Maltais was first elected 20 years ago, in 1998, and won the inner-city riding five more times for the Parti Qubcois.

Longtime "Agns" supporter Rjeanne Cyr said this time she is hesitating between Diane Lavalle, a senior Quebec bureaucrat who once headed Quebec's nurses federation, and Catherine Dorion, running for the more left-leaning Qubec Solidaire.

"I would like the Parti Qubcois not to disappear, and Qubec Solidaire is a good party, too," said Cyr.

Dorion, an actor, ran in Taschereau for pro-independence Option Nationale in 2014. With Option Nationale's merger into Qubec Solidaire, the new party has a membership of 850 in Taschereau its highest membership in any riding.

The CAQ candidate in Taschereau is first-timer Svetlana Solomykina, who has a science background and her own management consulting firm.

Liberal candidate Florent Tanletis taking a second run at the riding. Tanlet,who came to Quebec from France as a student in 2003, ran against Maltais in 2014, losingby just 451 votes.

Jean-Talon, Jean-Lesage also at play

The CAQ is campaigning hard in Jean-Talon, now held by Liberal Education Minister Sbastien Proulx.

"Jean-Talon has been Liberal since it was formed in 1971," Pelletier said. "It could remain Liberal."

The CAQ candidate in Jean-Talon is Jolle Boutin, a political newcomer who was a professional pilot before studying public and business administration at Concordia University.

Another key riding at play is Jean-Lesage, won by the Liberals in 2014.

Liberal candidate Gertrude Bourdon was presented by Couillard as the next Liberal health minister, in a move aimed at suggesting the party is moving on from the controversial reforms of Gatan Barrette in the health portfolio.

Pelletier does not think Bourdon, who was also courted by the CAQ, can win.

"She shopped around," he said. "People don't like that."

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